When it comes to the slowing economy, Ellen Spero isn't
biting her nails just yet, But the 47-year-old manicurist isn't cutting, filling or polishing as many nails as she'd like to, either. Most of her clients spend $12 to $50 weekly, but last month two longtime customers suddenly stopped showing up. Spero blames the softening economy. "I'm a good economic indicator," she says. "I provide a service that perople can do without when they're
concerned about saving some dollars." So Spero is downscalingm shopping at middlebrow Dillard's department store near her
suburban Cleveland home, instead of Neiman Macus. "I donit know if other clients are going to abandon me, too" she says.
Even before Alan Greenspan's admission that America's red-hot economy is cooling, lots of working folks had already seen signs of the slowdown themselves, From can dealerships to Gap outlets, sales have been lagging for months as shoppers temper thir spending. For retailers, who last year took in 24 percent of thire
revenue between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the
cautious approach is coming at a crucial time. Already, experts say, holiday sales are off 7 percent from last year's pace. But don't sound any alarms just yet. Conssumers seem only
concerned, not panicked, and many say they remain optimistic about the economy's long-term prospects, even as they do some modest belttinhtening.
Consumers say the're not in despair because, despite the dreadful headlines,their own fortunes still feel pretty good, Home prices are
holding steady in most regins, In Manhattan, "there's a new gold rush
happening in the $4 million to $10 million range, predominantly fed by Wall Street bonuses," says
broker Barbara Corcoran, In San Francisco, prices are still rising even as frenzied overbidding quiets. "Instead of 20 to 30 offers, now maybe you only get two or three," says john Deadly, a Bay Area real=estate
broker. And most folks still feel pretty comfortable about their ability to find and keep a job.
Many folks see silver linings to this slowdown. Potential home buyers would cheer for lower interest rates. Emplouers wouldn't mind a little fewer bubbles in the job market. Nany consumers seem to have been influenced by stock-market swings, which investors now view as a necessay
ingredient to a sustained boom. Diners might see an
upside, too. Getting a table at Manhattan's hot nwe Alain Ducasse restaurant need to be impossible. Not anymore. For that, Greenspan&Co. may still be worth toasting.
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