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中国工人本周才缓慢地从春节长假中回到工作岗位

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For toymaker The Bridge Direct, Easter now begins in August.


于玩具制造商The Bridge Direct来说，复活节从8月开始。



That is when the Boca Raton, Fla., producer of Inkoos stuffed monsters and Justin Bieber dolls has to file orders with its Chinese suppliers to ensure delivery by the spring holiday. It used to place orders closer to the key selling period, which allowed it to get a sharper sense of demand and better manage its cash. But now the greater concern is making sure it doesn't get left shorthanded because of China's New Year holiday.


这家位于佛罗里达州伯卡拉顿(Boca Raton)的制造商生产Inkoos怪物填充玩具和比伯(Justin Bieber)公仔。为了确保复活节春假能够交付产品，The Bridge Direct需要在8月就向中国的供应商提交订单。过去，公司一般临近关键的销售季节时才提交订单，以便对市场需求有更准确的把握，以及更好地管理现金。但如今，The Bridge Direct更担心的是，如何避免中国春节假期导致的人手不足。



The company is one of many from the U.S. and other countries that are closely watching China as factory workers slowly return this week from the country's long Lunar New Year holiday. Every year, millions of China's 250 million migrant workers leave their factories and travel across the country to visit their families at home. The problem for toy and apparel makers in particular is that fewer and fewer workers are returning to the factories when the break is over.


这家公司是美国和其他国家密切关注中国的众多公司之一，中国工人本周才缓慢地从春节长假中回到工作岗位。中国共有2.5亿外来务工人员，每年有数百万人在春节期间离开工厂，长途跋涉回到家乡与亲人团聚。玩具和服装制造商遇到的问题是，假期结束后回到工厂的人越来越少。



For the world's manufacturers, post-holiday no-shows are an increasingly frustrating part of China's tightening labor market. The trend reflects rising expectations among China's workers, who are seeking out higher pay even as they show less inclination to work in factories. Many workers use the break to look for new jobs or start families.


中国劳动力市场日益吃紧，而对于全球制造商来说，节后工人不到岗的现象是其中越来越让人沮丧的部分。这一趋势反映出，中国工人的期望值正在升高，他们希望获得更高的工资，而且越来越不愿意在工厂工作。许多工人利用这个假期寻找新的工作或成家立业。



Demographics are exacerbating the problem. China's one-child policy, implemented in 1980, has already started to erode the labor supply. In 2005, there were 120.7 million Chinese people between the ages of 15 and 19, according to estimates from the United Nations. By 2010, the number had fallen to 105.3 million. By 2015, it is expected to drop to 94.9 million.


人口因素令这一问题雪上加霜。中国1980年实施的独生子女政策已经开始影响劳动力供应。根据联合国(United Nations)的统计数据，2005年，中国15到19岁的人口为1.207亿，到2010年下降为1.053亿，而到2015年，预计这一数字将减少到9,490万。



Another factor is workers at toy and apparel factories are shifting to more lucrative industries like electronics. Underscoring the draw of that industry, Foxconn Technology Group, 2354.TW -0.58% which makes products for Apple Inc. AAPL -2.42% and others, Wednesday said it is freezing hiring of assembly-line workers in China due to high employee return rates after the holiday. A spokesman for the company, formally called Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., 2317.TW -0.59% said more than 90% of workers returned to the company.


此外，玩具厂和服装厂的工人正在流向更有利可图的行业，比如电子行业。为苹果等公司代工的富士康(Foxconn Technology Group)周三表示，由于节后返岗率较高，公司暂时停止招聘生产线工人，这凸显了电子行业的吸引力。该公司的一名发言人说，节后超过90%的工人回到了工厂。富士康又名鸿海精密工业股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.)。



Retention has historically been a problem for many manufacturers in China, which rely on the country's vast migrant labor pool. In 2010, 34% of rural migrant workers left their factory jobs to move back home, according to the most recent data available from the Rural-Urban Migration in China and Indonesia project at Australian National University.


如何留住员工一直是中国许多制造企业面临的难题。中国制造商一直依赖着庞大的外来务工大军。根据澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)中国和印尼农民工研究项目(Rural-Urban Migration in China and Indonesia project)最近公布的数据，2010年，34%的外来务工人员放弃了在工厂的工作回到家乡。



The exodus is putting a kink in a long supply relationship that has reduced costs for American consumers while helping China flourish. For years, American companies have worked closely with Chinese factory owners to improve production times and reduce error rates. Now, changes in China's labor patterns are setting back that progress and forcing business partners to rework arrangements they thought had been nailed down.


农民工的流失正在让长期的供应关系陷入困境。这种供应关系让美国消费者享受到了价格低廉的商品，也让中国经济繁荣发展。多年以来，美国的公司与中国工厂主密切合作，提高生产效率，减少错误率。如今，中国劳动力模式的改变正在拖累这一进程，迫使商业合作伙伴修订他们原以为已经确定的安排。



The New Year exodus typically forces factories to rush to hire new employees, which often creates quality-control issues. Following the holiday last year, fewer people than usual returned to work at the factory Jordache Ltd. uses to make outerwear and activewear. Jordache CEO Cliff Lelonek said his team caught loose seams, holes and other problems after the break, which meant goods had to be resewn or made over.


由于春节期间的人员流失，工厂一般会急着雇佣新的员工，这通常会产生质量控制的问题。去年春节假期之后，外套和休闲运动服制造商Jordache Ltd.的工厂工人返岗率下降。首席执行长莱洛内克(Cliff Lelonek)说，他的团队发现，在假期之后出现了针脚松散、破洞等问题，这些问题商品不得不返工或修改。



The developments have American apparel companies scouring other countries for factory sites and have raised concerns in China. Officials in the province of Guangdong, a manufacturing hub in southern China, warned factories early this month to begin recruiting and urged local companies to help employees make sure they can come back to factories, for example by arranging return tickets.


上述情况迫使美国服装公司到其他国家寻址建厂，同时也在中国国内引发担忧。中国南方制造业中心广东省的官员们本月早些时候提醒工厂要开始招人，并要求当地企业帮助确保员工返岗，比如帮助购买返程车票。



The Human Resources and Social Security Department of Guangdong estimated that 10 million workers, or 61% of the province's migrant-labor pool, would head home to see their families for the New Year Holiday, with a return rate of around 90%, leaving a labor shortfall of up to 1.2 million workers after the holiday. The human-resources department said the shortage could be compounded by higher demand for factory workers, which it said climbed 15.2% in 2012 from a year earlier.


据广东省人力资源和社会保障厅估计，将有1,000万务工人员（占该省外来务工者的61%）春节回家探亲，返岗率约为90%，节后劳动力缺口最高将达120万。广东人社厅说，工厂对工人需求增加可能会使劳动力紧缺的状况加剧。人社厅说，2012年工厂对员工的需求同比增加了15.2%。



Jay Foreman, CEO of The Bridge Direct, said 15% to 30% of the workers at the factory he uses don't show up after the holiday. 'We get delayed shipments because not enough workers return to the factory,' he said.


The Bridge Direct首席执行长福尔曼(Jay Foreman)说，通常工厂工人有15%至30%节后就不回来了。他说，公司会出现延迟发货的情况，因为没有足够的人手。



The company has changed tactics as a result. In 2006, The Bridge Direct had committed to deliver 100,000 Care Bears dolls to a major retailer ahead of Easter. Issues with workers returning to the factory where the Care Bears were made caused heavy delays. In the end, the company had to send the toys by air instead of by boat, spending $7 apiece to ship toys it sold for $8 apiece.


The Bridge Direct于是改变了策略。2006年，该公司曾答应某大型零售商在复活节之前向其供应10万只"爱心熊"(Care Bears)玩具，但后来生产"爱心熊"的工厂因人员返岗问题导致供货严重推迟。最终，该公司只好将船运改成空运，每个售价8美元的玩具熊有7美元花在了运费上。



Now, Mr. Foreman places his Easter orders in August, which protects him from dealing with delays related to the New Year because the orders get filled and shipped before the holiday break, but it also has its downside. Vendors used to be able to place Easter orders as late as November, giving them a better understanding of what might sell well. Earlier ordering also means vendors have to pay for their orders well before they can sell them to retailers, which can create cash constraints.


如今，福尔曼将复活节订单放在每年8月，这样他就不用因春节导致的发货延误而手忙脚乱，因为在春节放假前订单都已完成且出货。但这么做也有副作用。商家以前最晚可到11月再下复活节订单，这样能更好地了解哪些产品可能畅销。提前下订单还意味着商家须在将产品卖给零售商很早以前就支付订单款项，这样有可能带来资金压力。



'Now, we have to make our bets so far in advance that it really creates a risk,' Mr. Foreman said.


福尔曼说，我们现在不得不提前很长时间就开始"下注"，这确实会带来风险。



On the other side of that equation are workers like Yan Changsheng, who planned to celebrate this Chinese New Year by quitting his factory job, which paid him 2,200 yuan a month, or $352, to make pipes.


"返岗"也是严长胜（音）这样的务工人员需要面对的问题。他打算辞掉自己在管道生产企业每月人民币2,200元的工作，回家过个年。



The 29-year-old native of central Hubei province has been working in the southern city of Shenzhen for the past five years. He is one of the many workers using the long break to cut ties with employers in hopes of finding higher pay in factories that produce televisions, mobile phones and other gadgets.


严长胜今年29岁，家在湖北的他过去五年一直在深圳打工。与众多外来务工者一样，他也利用春节长假辞掉工作，希望在生产电视机、手机和其它小东西的工厂里找到待遇更好的工作。



Mr. Yan, said the No. 1 factor in his departure is his salary. The factory where he has been working, Hua Han Technology Co., doesn't pay for food and has no dormitory. 'There's almost nothing left by the end of the month,' Mr. Yan said.


严长胜说，他辞掉工作的首要因素就是工资问题。他一直在华翰科技有限公司(Hua Han Technology Co.)打工，工资不包括食宿。他说，一到月底就几乎分文不剩。



Shen Hongliang, a manager at Hua Han, said it offers competitive salaries and sufficient working conditions. Mr. Shen also said most Hua Han employees have returned to work from the holiday.


华翰科技的一名经理沈宏亮（音）说，公司提供有竞争力的薪酬和足够方便的工作条件。他还说，华翰科技的大多数员工都已在节后回到工作岗位上。



Toy maker LaserPeg Ventures, of Sarasota, Fla., works with three different factories in China. Each year, about 25% of the workers there don't return after the New Year holiday, LaserPeg Chief Executive Jon Capriola said.


美国佛罗里达州萨拉索塔市(Sarasota)玩具制造商LaserPeg Ventures与中国内地三家不同的工厂有合作关系。该公司首席执行长卡普里拉(Jon Capriola)说，每年春节后那些中国工厂都有约25%的员工不再露面。



Last year, the company received its orders 45 days late because of the New Year holiday. The delay meant hundreds of thousands of dollars in missed revenue for the company, which had sales of $17 million last year, the CEO said.


去年，该公司因中国春节假期晚了45天才收到货。卡普里拉说，订单延迟交付意味着公司收入少了数十万美元。该公司去年销售额为1,700万美元。



This year, Mr. Capriola didn't risk it. He doubled his order ahead of the New Year so that his toys were on the water and headed to Florida before the holiday even started.


今年，卡普里拉没有冒这个险。他在新年前就将订货量加倍，春节假期前他的玩具已在开赴佛罗里达的船上了。



'If you don't do that,' he said, 'you won't see anything until late April or the middle of May, and you can miss part of a season.'


卡普里拉说，如果不这么做，4月底或5月中旬之前就什么也没有，可能就会错过一部分购物季。



DANA MATTIOLI / LAURIE BURKITT


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