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格兰瑟姆每个季度致投资者的信件是金融界的必读资料

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If you believe climate change is real, and you want to profit from the possible end of the world, you should go out now and buy big energy stocks.


果你相信气候变化论，而且希望借也许确有其事的世界末日之机获利，那么现在你应该去购买大型能源股。



This is the remorseless conclusion of the latest quarterly letter from Boston-based money management guru Jeremy, aka Jeremiah, Grantham.


这是波士顿的财富管理大师格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)在最新的季度致投资者信件中得出的冷酷结论。



More on that in a moment.


下面我们来详细地看一看。



Grantham's quarterly missives are required reading in the financial world. (They are available for free at the GMO website, www.gmo.com, though you have to register.) He warned against both the dotcom and housing bubbles before they burst, and on both occasions he was among the lone voices crying in the wilderness. In recent years he has been warning about the impendingdisaster of climate change or global warming, with similar success.


格兰瑟姆每个季度致投资者的信件是金融界的必读资料。（在GMO公司的网站www.gmo.com上可以免费读到，不过需要注册。）格兰瑟姆在互联网和住房泡沫破灭之前均发出了警告，两次他都是为数不多的先知之一。近年来，他一直在就不断逼近的气候变化和全球变暖灾难发出警告，一样也预言准确。



Grantham's latest letter, out this week, contains astonishing and alarming news. The U.S. economic growth rate is collapsing, he says, and this is not a temporary thing. 'The U.S. GDP growth rate that we have become accustomed to for over a hundred years - in excess of 3% a year - is not just hiding behind temporary setbacks,' he warns. 'It is gone forever. Yet most business people (and the Fed) assume that economic growth will recover to its old rates.' He says this is a trend that has been developing for several decades. It was masked by the dotcom and housing bubbles, and by a wave of women entering the workforce from 1970 to 2000.


格兰瑟姆这封最新信件中包含了令人震惊、警醒的消息。他说，美国经济增长率在大幅下降，这种状况并不是暂时性的。他警告称："在超过一百年的时间里，我们见惯了逾3%的美国国内生产总值年增速，这样的增速并非只是被暂时性的衰退所掩盖，而是已经一去不复返了。但多数商界人士（连同美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)在内）都以为经济增幅将恢复到过去的水平。"他说，这种趋势实际上已经持续几十年了，但互联网和住房泡沫以及1970年到2000年期间的女性就业潮掩盖了这一趋势。



He expects future growth to be about 1% a year after inflation, and warns that rising costs of scarce raw materials - energy, metals and foodstuffs - may strangle even that. Grantham fears growth might turn negative, and stay there, within about one to three decades. We will enter a very different world - one in which effectively everything is recycled.


他预计，经通货膨胀因素调整后，未来的年增幅将在1%左右，他还警告称，稀缺原材料──能源、金属、食品──价格的上升可能会对增速构成进一步抑制。格兰瑟姆担心，未来10到30年内经济会陷入负增长并保持这一状况。我们将进入一个非常不同的世界──在这个世界里，几乎一切东西都要循环利用。



We forget that productivity growth is a new thing: It was virtually nonexistent in human history until about 1850. It may get back there again.


我们忘了生产率增长其实是个新事物：在1850年之前的人类历史中，它是根本就不存在的。将来我们可能会回到当年。



But what about oil stocks?


那石油股会怎么样呢？



Grantham notes that the evidence of global warming is now inescapable. We've had three bad harvests in a row. Of the ten extreme floods to have hit New York City since 1920, three have occurred in the last two and a half years. Arctic ice has lost 75% of its volume in thirty years. It may all be gone within a decade, Grantham notes.


格兰瑟姆指出，全球变暖的证据现在是显而易见的。我们已经连续三年歉收。1920年以来，纽约出现过十次极端洪灾，其中三次是过去两年半发生的。近三十年来，北极冰层体积已经减少了75%。格兰瑟姆称，十年之内这些冰层可能会全部消失。



And now for that math.


现在我们来计算一下。



Man-made emissions of greenhouse gases since 1850 have raised global temperatures by about 0.8 degrees Celsius, notes Grantham. Once that number hits 2 degrees, we're in deep trouble on global warming.


格兰瑟姆指出，1850年以来，人为温室气体排放已经导致全球气温升高0.8摄氏度左右。气温值升高一旦达到二摄氏度，我们就会因全球变暖而陷入深重灾难。



How much greenhouse gas would we have to emit to hit 2 degrees? Grantham says science allows us to calculate the figure at 565 gigatons.


要排放多少温室气体才会导致气温升高二摄氏度呢？格兰瑟姆称，根据科学计算，这个值是5,650亿吨。



Yet the proven undergroundenergy reserves of the oil, gas and coal industries, if used up, would emit 2,800 gigatons, or five times that level.


但如果石油、天然气和煤炭行业的已探明地下能源储量全部消耗完，温室气体排放量会达到28,000亿吨，相当于前述值的五倍。



So if the oil, gas and coal industries use up more than one fifth of their proven energy reserves - even ignoring further discoveries - we're into the red zone.


因此，如果石油、天然气和煤炭行业消耗五分之一以上的已探明能源储量（即使忽略新发现的储量），我们就会陷入危险的境地。



And here's the kicker. 'We know that to be even a little safe we need 80% of these proven reserves to be left in the ground,' writes Grantham. Yet 'the market value of oil companies is about equal to the perceived value of their reserves.'


下面是症结所在。格兰瑟姆写道："我们知道，要想安全一点的话，应该把80%的已探明储量留在地下，然而，石油公司的市值基本上就等于他们所拥有储量的感知价值。"



The chance these companies would ever willingly agree to keep 80% of their reserves under ground, as Grantham notes, is minimal.


格兰瑟姆指出，这些公司基本上不可能愿意把80%的储量留在地下而不进行开采。



No one is likely to force them to, either. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, oil and gas companies alone gave $59 million in campaign contributions in the last year, and spent another $149 million on lobbying. They employ 795 lobbyists. (Who says all the good jobs have gone to China?). And that doesn't count propaganda. Just think of those commercials on TV, funded by coal companies, in favor of 'clean coal' - an oxymoron and a phrase Grantham says is worthy of Hitler's minister of propaganda Joseph Goebbels.


此外，应该也不会有人强迫他们这样做。美国响应性政治中心(Center for Responsive Politics)的数据显示，去年仅石油和天然气公司就为竞选活动捐款5,900万美元，另外还花费了1.49亿美元用于政治游说。他们聘请了795名游说者（谁说所有好工作都流向中国了？）。这还没有计入他们在宣传活动中投入的资金。想想那些由煤炭公司赞助、支持"清洁煤"的电视广告吧，格兰瑟姆说，"清洁煤"是一种自相矛盾的说法，这个名词只有希特勒(Hitler)的宣传部长戈培尔(Joseph Goebbels)才想得出来。



Grantham's conclusion, to summarize a little, is that we are all in deep trouble because the energy companies would never agree to rein in their profits for the good of the planet.


格兰瑟姆的结论总结起来就是，我们都面临严重的问题，因为能源公司永远不会同意为保护地球而限制自己的利润。



The cynical might add: People are most in trouble if they (a) have children and (b) don't own energy stocks to cover their own rears. After all, those companies will own a valuable, vanishing resource in a world they dominate politically.


愤世嫉俗者可能会补充一句：麻烦最大的是(a)有孩子的人，(b)手中没有能源股来掩护后方的人。毕竟，这些主导世界政治的公司将拥有一种宝贵、逐渐消失的资源。



The simplest way to buy them is through the iShares S&P Global Energy exchange-traded fund, which owns a basket of top U.S. and foreign energy stocks.


要购买这些公司的股票，最简单的方式是投资安硕标普全球能源交易所买卖基金(iShares S&P Global Energy)，该基金持有一篮子美国和海外顶级能源股。



Brett Arends


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