Never mind Apple's latest results. Whether the shares make a good
stocking stuffer depends on how many iPhones and iPads sell during the Christmas season -- and whether Apple can strike new
distribution deals in the new year.
去管苹果(Apple)最新发布的业绩了。苹果的股票是不是值得购买,取决于在圣诞销售旺季能卖出多少部iPhone,多少部iPad,以及苹果是否能在新的一年里达成新的销售协议。
The September quarter was fine. Apple sold 26.9 million iPhones, a bit more than analysts had expected. But the iPhone 5 was released toward the end of September. So most of the pent-up demand for the new
device will hit the December quarter, when analysts expect Apple will sell around 50 million iPhones.
截止于9月底的这一财季还不错。苹果在这一财季总共卖出了2,690万部iPhone,稍稍高于分析师的预期。不过iPhone 5是在快到9月底时才上市的,因此对这款新手机的需求将在今年第四季度爆发出来,分析师预计,苹果将在这一季度卖出大约5,000万部iPhone。
It is a similar story for Apple's next most important product, the iPad. Apple sold 14 million tablets, which was a few million short of expectations.
对于苹果的另一款重要产品iPad来说,情形也差不多。苹果在今年第三季度卖出了1,400万部iPad,比分析师的预期少了几百万部。
But part of the problem was likely that some buyers put off purchases in
anticipation of the
release of the iPad Mini, which won't be
available until early November.
不过出现这一问题的部分原因可能在于,一些买家因为在等着iPad Mini,所以推迟了购买行为。iPad Mini要到11月份才能上市。
One sign of strong sales, at least for iPhones, is that Apple is still complaining of constrained supply more than a month after its newest phone went on sale.
显示苹果产品旺销的一个迹象是(至少对iPhone而言),苹果在iPhone 5上市销售一个多月之后还在抱怨供应吃紧。
But even as the December quarter is so important for Apple, it may be harder than usual for investors to predict. The quarter is one week shorter -- at 13 weeks -- compared with the December quarter a year ago.
尽管今年第四季度对苹果来说非常重要,但对投资者而言,与往年相比他们可能更加难以对苹果这一财季的业绩做出预测。与去年的同一财季相比,今年的这个财季短了一个星期,只有13周。
Also, last year, the iPhone 4S rolled out in October, meaning none of the pent up demand for that
device was absorbed in the prior quarter --
unlike the iPhone 5.
更何况,去年推出的iPhone 4S是在10月份上市的,也就是说,市场对这一产品的井喷式需求没有在上一财季被部分吸收,而iPhone 5的情况则有所不同。
Last, Apple's margins may be
depressed this quarter
considering it is rolling out so many new products. Profits should be maximized as the company gains efficiencies when production ramps up.
最后一点,考虑到苹果已经推出了这么多的新产品,苹果当前财季的利润率可能会受到打压。在产量上来之后,随着苹果生产效率的提高,利润率会得以最大化。
China should help. Sales in that country were 15% of Apple's total in the
fiscal year ended September. But with the company likely to sign a deal with China Mobile, the world's largest carrier, to
officially sell the iPhone, it could be a
fruitful new year.
中国也能助苹果一臂之力。在截至九月底的这个财年,苹果在中国的销售额占到了其总销售额的15%。不过,考虑到苹果很可能跟全球最大的电信运营商中国移动(China Mobile)达成销售iPhone的协议,新的一年或许将是硕果累累的一年。
Rolfe Winkler
Rolfe Winkler