With so many car makers accelerating into China, the risk of a pile-up is growing.
加速开进中国市场的汽车生产商越来越多，发生拥堵的风险也越来越大。
The Beijing auto show, which opens its doors on Monday, has become the biggest extravaganza in the biggest car market in the world. Victoria Beckham--the artist formerly known as Posh Spice--is in town to promote the Range Rover Evoque. Maserati is showcasing a SUV.
周一开幕的北京车展已经成为世界最大汽车市场的最大盛会。曾被称作"时髦辣妹"的时装设计师维多利亚•贝克汉姆(Victoria Beckham)前来推销路虎(Range Rover)的揽胜极光(Evoque)，玛莎拉蒂(Maserati)则正在展示一台多功能运动型车(SUV)。
China's massive population, rising wealth, and growing demand for autos make the excitement easy to understand. From 2008 to 2011, unit sales increased 98%. Analysts speak breathlessly about demand taking off when gross domestic product hits $10,000 per capita, measured in purchasing-power-parity terms. China is projected to cross that threshold in 2013.
考虑到中国庞大的人口数量、不断增长的财富以及越来越大的汽车需求，这种盛况不难理解。从2008年到2011年，汽车销量增长了98%。分析人士总是在说，当人均国内生产总值(GDP)达到1万美元（按购买力平价计算）时，需求将会腾飞。预计中国将在2013年达到这个关口。
But amid the sound of auto makers revving their engines in unison, there are reasons for caution.
但在汽车厂商一齐开动引擎的轰鸣声中，也有理由保持谨慎。
Excess capacity is a risk. Bill Russo, an expert in China's auto sector at Synergistics, estimates that production capacity in China in 2015 could be as high as 28 million units. With sales at 18.5 million in 2011, producers are betting on a lot of demand growth.
产能过剩是风险之一。咨询公司Synergistics中国汽车业专家罗威(Bill Russo)估计，2015年中国的产能最高可能会达到2,800万辆。在2011年销量为1,850万辆的情况下，生产商预期的增长幅度可真不小。
On the recent evidence, they might be riding for a fall. Unit sales rose just 2.5% in 2011. The excuse then was that the end of tax incentives to buy cars had dented sales. But the bad news has continued in the first quarter of 2012, with sales down 3.9% from a year earlier.
从最近的例证来看，这些生产商可能太鲁莽了──2011年的销售量仅增2.5%。不过各厂商的说辞是，针对购车的税收优惠措施结束影响了销售。但2012年一季度传来的还是坏消息：销量较去年同期下降了3.9%。
Competition at the luxury end of the market, where margins are highest, is especially intense. The Maserati SUV, slated for production in 2014, will jostle for position with offerings from Porsche, BMW and Mercedes. Ford is planning to bring new SUV models to the China market. In the budget-passenger segment, margins are lower, and domestic players are also grasping for market share.
豪车市场利润率最高，竞争尤其激烈。玛莎拉蒂那款计划于2014年生产的SUV将要在保时捷(Porsche)、宝马(BMW)和梅赛德斯(Mercedes)等厂商的众多车型中挤出自己的位置。福特(Ford)也在打算向中国市场引进新款SUV。经济型乘用车市场利润率更低，而国内厂商也在努力争夺市场份额。
Auto makers can't pass up the opportunity to get into the China fast lane, and there will be some winners. Audi grew its greater China sales 37% in 2011. But the road to higher profits is looking a little jammed.
汽车厂商不能白白错过驶入中国快车道的机会，而且终究会有部分厂商胜出。奥迪(Audi)2011年在大中华区的销量实现了37%的增长。但驶向更高利润的道路已经显得有点拥堵。
Tom Orlik
- formerly [´fɔ:məli]
ad.从前，以前 (初中英语单词) - promote [prə´məut] vt.促进；发扬；助长 (初中英语单词)
- wealth [welθ] n.财富，财产 (初中英语单词)
- excitement [ik´saitmənt] n.兴奋；骚动；煽动 (初中英语单词)
- domestic [də´mestik] a.家庭的；本国的 (初中英语单词)
- capacity [kə´pæsiti] n.容量；智能；能力 (初中英语单词)
- expert [´ekspə:t] n.&a.专家；内行 (初中英语单词)
- luxury [´lʌkʃəri] n.奢侈(品)；享受 (初中英语单词)
- massive [´mæsiv] a.厚实的；魁伟的 (高中英语单词)
- threshold [´θreʃhəuld] n.门槛；入门；开端 (高中英语单词)
- intense [in´tens] a.强烈的；紧张的 (高中英语单词)
- breathlessly [´breθlisli] ad.气喘吁吁地 (英语四级单词)
- jostle [´dʒɔsəl] v.&n.推，撞，挤(人) (英语四级单词)
- taking [´teikiŋ] a.迷人的 n.捕获物 (英语六级单词)
- unison [´ju:nisən] n.协调，一致；齐唱 (英语六级单词)
- segment [´segmənt] n.部分；段；弓形 (英语六级单词)
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