The sharp selloff in the bond market last week is prompting some analysts on Wall Street to rethink the trajectory of interest rates.
债券市场上周遭遇大幅抛售的行情令华尔街一些分析师反思利率变动的轨迹。
And at least one firm is daring to voice the big question: Is the decades-long bull market for bonds finally over?
至少有一家机构敢于提出下面这个重大问题：持续数十年之久的债券牛市是否已经终结？
For much of this year, the Treasury market has appeared immune to a strengthening economy and growing confidence that the troubles in Europe may be easing. Such scenarios usually tend to draw investors out of bonds and into riskier investments such as stocks.
今年大部分时间里，美国国债市场似乎对美国经济走强以及市场对欧债危机可能缓解的信心不断增强的情况无动于衷。按理说，出现上述情况往往会让投资者卖出债券，买入股票等风险更高的投资品。
But the Federal Reserve has been a major buyer of bonds for the past few years, and investors were anticipating it would step up its purchases again soon, in large part to keep rates low and support the economy.
但过去几年里，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)一直是美国国债的主要买家，投资者也预期美联储很快将再次加大债券购买力度，在很大程度上是为了维持低利率并支撑美国经济。
That all changed last week when investors interpreted a statement following the Fed's latest policy meeting as a warning not to expect a new round of bond buying from the central bank anytime soon.
但这种期望在上周完全破灭：投资者将美联储最近一次政策会议召开后发布的声明解读为一种警告，即市场不要指望美联储近期将开始新一轮债券购买计划。
As a result, Treasury prices tumbled and yields soared. Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 2.301% from 2.037% March 9. The yield on the 30-year 'long' bond rose to 3.416%.
受此影响，美国国债价格大跌，收益率飙升。美国10年期国债收益率从3月9日的2.037%上升至2.301%。30年长期国债收益率升至3.416%。
Now, bond watchers at several banks have changed their forecasts for yields.
如今，多家银行的债券分析师已经改变了他们对美国国债收益率的预期。
Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Nomura, Société Générale and UBS were among those that published tweaks to their official targets for the end of 2012, citing decreasing odds of more Fed bond buying and an increased likelihood of selling pressure.
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、野村(Nomura)、法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)和瑞士银行(UBS)等金融机构微调了截至2012年底美国国债的目标收益率，理由是美联储扩大债券购买规模的几率降低，美国国债遭抛售的可能性加大。
In one sense, a move to higher rates could signal good news, suggesting investors are beginning to bet against the prospect of the U.S. slipping into a deflationary spiral, as it threatened to do after the financialcrisis hit. On the other hand, the economy remains fragile, and a sharp increase in interest rates could derail the recovery if it makes it more difficult for companies to borrow and consumers to refinance mortgages.
从某种意义上说，利率上升可能释放利好信息，表明投资者开始押注：他们认为美国经济不会进入通缩螺旋，就像遭受金融危机冲击后可能出现的情况那样。但从另一方面看，美国经济仍很脆弱，利率大幅上升可能中断复苏进程，因为这可能加大企业借款的难度，同时令消费者难以为抵押贷款申请再融资。
For those reasons, most analysts expect the Fed to keep a close eye on the recent increase in yields and take measures to limit further increases. Even those who had been expecting a selloff don't expect rates to break far from current levels, which remain quite low by historical standards.
基于上述原因，大多数分析师预计美联储将密切关注近期美国国债收益率大幅上升的情况，并将采取措施限制其进一步上升。就连那些预计债券市场将出现大幅抛售行情的人也不敢说利率将大幅高于当前的水平。按历史标准衡量，美国的利率水平仍然很低。
Still, economists at UBS raised the prospect that investors could be seeing the beginning of the end for the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s.
尽管如此，瑞银的经济学家提出了一种可能，即投资者可能看到这轮始于上世纪80年代初的债券牛市开始终结。
The jump in yields last week 'marks a secular turning point for bond markets,' Larry Hatheway, chief economist at UBS Investment Bank, said in a research note published Friday. 'We believe a long-term bear market has commenced.'
瑞银投资银行部首席经济学家海瑟威(Larry Hatheway)在上周五出版的一份研究报告中指出，上周美国国债收益率大幅蹿升标志着债市出现了一个长期转折点。我们相信一个长期熊市已经开始。
If so, that would represent a major shift. Since then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker broke the back of inflation in the early 1980s by moving interest rates sharply higher, prices for Treasury bonds have been climbing
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