酷兔英语


It has been more than 12 years since the Nasdaq Composite index made its first climb above 3000, an eon in stock-market terms.


纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite index)首次站上3,000点已经过去12年多了,在美股历史上这真的是很长的一段时间。



Now, the Nasdaq is once again poised to cross that psychologically important marker. This time, though, the technology-heavy stock index, like many of the traders who tracked it back then, is an older, wiser and arguably frumpier version of its former self.


现在,纳斯达克指数有望再次站上这一重要心理点位。但和此前相比,这一主要涵盖科技公司的股指就如同当年追踪这一指数的交易员一样,变得更加老练、睿智,同时也更加稳重。



In November 1999, the technology world was ablaze with an investmentfrenzy that favored unprofitable, unproven companies that were valued for their potential 'clicks' and 'eyeballs.'


1999年11月,科技界闪耀的投资热潮是追捧那些尚未盈利且未经市场检验的公司,潜在"点击率"和"眼球率"成了这类企业的估值基础。



Now, the biggest 100 Nasdaq-listed companies look a lot more like their more sedate counterparts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.


现在,纳斯达克前100大上市公司看上去更像道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average, 简称:道琼斯工业指数)成分股中那些稳重的上市公司了。



They sit on mounds of cash. Almost half of them pay dividends. They raise money in the bond market, carrying, in aggregate, 10 times the amount of debt they did in 1999. And their price-to-earnings ratios are, well, average.


这些公司拥有大量现金,几乎一半的公司会派发股息;他们在债券市场融资,融资总量是1999年的10倍;这些公司的市盈率也处于平均水平。



For many investors, that's a much better place to be.


对于很多投资者来说,纳斯达克成了一个更值得投资的市场。



'The composition of the companies is much more stable, the earnings are much more reliable and the multiple being applied against those earnings is much more rational,' says Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based Northern Trust Corp., which has $663 billion under management.


芝加哥北方信托公司(Northern Trust Corp.)首席投资策略师麦克唐纳(Jim McDonald)说,在纳斯达克市场,上市公司的构成更加稳定,公司盈利更加可靠,盈利水平所对应的市盈率倍数也更加合理。北方信托公司管理的资金达6,630亿美元。



As in 1999, tech stocks are once again outpacing the rest of the market. The Nasdaq, which closed Friday at 2988.34, is up almost 15% this year, compared with a 5.8% gain for the Dow.


和1999年类似的是,科技股的涨幅再次超越市场其它板块。上周五纳斯达克指数收于2988.34点,今年迄今累计上涨近15%,同期道琼斯工业指数的累计涨幅只有5.8%。



Few dare to say the Nasdaq is in position to challenge its all-time high; the index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, almost exactly 12 years ago, before falling back below 3000 in December of that year. But investors believe tech stocks still have further to climb.


没有几个人敢说纳斯达克指数已经准备好挑战其历史最高点位:差不多整整12年前,2000年3月10日纳斯达克指数见顶,至5,048.62点。就在当年12月,纳斯达克指数暴跌至3,000点以下。但投资者相信科技股还有进一步上涨的空间。



They point to the growing U.S. economy as a support for tech stocks. Moreover, many tech firms used the recent recession to trim costs, leaving them with leaner operations. Strategas Research Partners calls technology 'a sector for all seasons.' In good times, investors crave tech stocks' growth potential. In times of weakness, Strategas argues, they generate business from helping other companies squeeze out efficiencies.


投资者指出,不断增长的美国经济是支撑科技股进一步上升的基础。此外,许多科技类企业利用近来的经济衰退削减成本,进一步精简业务。机构经纪商Strategas Research Partners说无论经济形势如何,科技股都值得投资:在经济向好的时候,投资者看中的是科技股的增长潜力;在经济疲软的时候,Strategas认为科技公司可以通过帮助其它企业进一步提升效率而获得业务。



Most important, tech stocks now trade at much more grounded valuations that reflect the maturity of many Nasdaq companies. The Nasdaq Composite now trades at about 23 times the previous year's earnings, compared with 78 times trailing earnings in November 1999, according to stock-market research firm Birinyi Associates.


最重要的是,眼下科技股的估值水平降低了不少,这反映出纳斯达克很多上市企业的成熟。股市研究机构Birinyi Associates指出,以上一年盈利水平计算,纳斯达克指数现在的市盈率水平大约为23倍,而1999年11月这一数字曾高达78倍。



'By the metrics of the trucking industry, or the paper and forest-products industry or any other 'old economy' industry, we'd say it's pretty cheap,' says Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist for Federated Investors Inc. in New York and, during the tech bubble, the manager of a large-cap growth fund. 'There's nothing frothy about this.'


位于纽约的货币市场基金Federated Investors Inc.的首席投资策略师奥兰多(Phil Orlando)说,无论是和货运业相比,还是和造纸/林木产品业及任何一种传统经济产业相比,科技股的估值都相当的便宜。他说科技股不存在任何泡沫。在科技股泡沫时期,奥兰多曾是一家大型股成长基金的经理。



To be sure, some argue there are signs of exuberance in certain pockets of the tech sector. For some, the excitement that surrounded initial public offerings by the likes of social-media newcomers Zynga Inc. and Groupon Inc., and anticipation for Facebook Inc.'s public debut, are reminiscent of the late 1990s exuberance.


可以肯定的是,一些人认为有迹象表明,科技股的某些子板块交投活跃。而在另一些人看来,社交媒体新晋企业Zynga Inc.和团购网站Groupon Inc.首次公开募股(IPO)所引发的市场热情,以及即将上市的Facebook Inc.留给市场的期望都让人想起了上世纪90年代末科技股繁荣的景象。



And, even though 12 years ago may feel like an eternity, many investors still remember the pain of the tech bubble's spectacular burst.


虽然12年前的事看上去可能已经非常遥远,但很多投资者依然记得科技股投机泡沫破裂带来的痛苦。



Given the recent rally, tech stocks could be among the hardest-hit sectors should troubles in Europe flare up again, or the global economy weaken.


鉴于其近期的涨势,如果欧洲再次出现麻烦,或全球经济再次走软,那么科技股可能成为受冲击最严重的板块之一。



Jonathan Cheng


Jonathan Cheng