章节正文
文章总共1页
第1篇
Stock prices tumbled on Wall Street and across much of the rest of the world yesterday. They were driven sharply lower by worries over slowing economic growth in the United States and worsening borrowing conditions that could make everything from huge corporate buyouts to buying a new home more difficult. Major stock market gauges -- including the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index -- were down more than 2 percent.
It was the worst one-day decline on Wall Street since markets plunged worldwide in late February after an investing scare in Shanghai, and it occurred amid the biggest volume of trading on the New York Stock Exchange in five years. Losses were comparable throughout Europe, and larger in many developing countries. ''The preconditions for a shock are in place,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. ''Until very recently investors were very nonchalant about risks.''
Stock markets have been volatile in recent weeks. Continued strong profits for many companies and an economic boom in Asia have helped push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, however, there are various signs of weakness in the American economy and new difficulties in borrowing for many homeowners and companies that are highly leveraged or have poor credit.
The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned. Banks will hold those loans, as they will for a similar deal involving Alliance Boots, a British pharmacy chain. Shares of DaimlerChrysler fell $4.11, to $88.91.'' There is fear, but not a fear of recession,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the Pacific Investment Management Company, known as Pimco, a large bond management firm. ''The fear is directed toward the question of who will be willing to lend $200 billion to provide takeout financing for previously announced private equity deals.''
Yesterday, the Dow industrials plunged 311.50 points, or 2.3 percent, to 13,473.57, while the S.& P. 500 dropped 35.43 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,482.66. The Nasdaq composite index was down 48.83 points, or 1.8 percent, to 2,599.34. The S.& P. is still up 4.5 percent for the year, while the Dow is 8.1 percent higher. But the S.& P. has fallen 4.5 percent since reaching a record last week. In the last hour or so of trading, the major Wall Street indexes recovered about a third of their steepest losses for the day. Losses of more than 2 percent were recorded in Spain, France and Germany, while Britain, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil fell more than 3 percent. Asian markets fell less yesterday, closing before the worst selling began, but opened down sharply on Friday.
注（1）：本文选自New York Times，07/27/2007
注（2）：本文习题命题模仿对象：第1、2题分别模仿2000年真题Text 3第1题和Text 4第3题，第3题模仿2004年真题Text 4第1题，第4题模仿2001年真题Text 1第2题，第5题模仿1999年真题Text 1第4题。
1． The passage is mainly_______.
[A] a review of the current condition of the American and world stock market
[B] an introduction of the world stock market
[C] a survey of the stock deal of DaimlerChrysler
[D] about the ups and downs of stock prices
2． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Currently it is more difficult for Americans to borrow money from banks for house purchase.
[B] The losses from stock markets are similar in U.S. and some developing countries.
[C] Investors were worried about the potential risks in stock market before yesterday.
[D] Economic boom in Asia prevent its stock market from falling.
3． If you were an investor, you might be able to earn money if _______.
[A] you held the shares of DaimlerChrysler
[B] you purchased new shares when the stock market opened yesterday.
[C] you bought and sold shares at the last one or two hours before closing
[D] you didn't trade any shares yesterday.
4． We can infer from the text that _______.
[A] The Chrysler transaction will turn to be a failure.
[B] The banks hold the loans because of Alliance Boots.
[C] Bill Gross thinks the fear is from the huge amount of money.
[D] The difficulty of borrowing leads to the shrinking prices of shares of DaimlerChrysler.
5． The writer's attitude towards the current stock market is_______.
[A] biased
[B] objective
[C] pessimistic
[D] optimistic
篇章剖析
本篇文章是一篇说明文，介绍了美国股市昨日下跌的情况。第一段开门见山地说明了股市大跌的事实及其原因，第二、三段则进一步展开说明了股市最近的状况，影响股市的各种负面因素等。第四段用了一个具体的市场交易事例来说明股市不稳定导致的后果，并引用了经济专业分析师的评论。最后两段综述了美国各大指数以及世界各地股市的涨跌情况，引用了大量的数据。
词汇注释
tumble [`tQmbl] vi. 倒坍; 崩溃; 下跌 volatile [`vRl[tail] adj.可变的, 不稳定的
buyout [`bBi9BUt] n. 全部买下 boom [bu:m] n.繁荣
gauge [^BUdV] n. 方法, 估量, 判断 transaction [trAn`zAkF[n] n. 交易, 事务
plunge [plQndV] vi. 投入, 跳进, 陷入 pharmacy [`fB:m[si] n. 配药业, 制药业
scare [skZ[] n. 惊恐, 恐慌, 恐惧 recession [ri`seF[n] n. 经济衰退, 不景气
precondition [`pri:k[n`diF[n] n. 前提, 先决条件 takeout [`tei9aut] n. 资产外带
nonchalant [`nRnF[l[nt] adj.不关心的, 若无其事的 index [indeks] n. 指数
难句突破
The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned.
主体句式 The plunge came a day after the ... firm ... said ...
结构分析 这是一个复杂句，主句为The plunge came，但在a day after后面的结构比较复杂。首先，buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler是用来修饰he private equity firm，因此后面这个长句的基本结构就是the firm said。said后面跟的是一个间接引语，这个长句的主体是it would complete the transaction for the automaker，之后的despite表示一个转折的意思，而as had been planned是用来形容borrow the money in credit markets的。
句子译文 股市大跌的前一日，从戴姆勒-克莱斯勒购买克莱斯勒企业债的这家私有证券公司声称，尽管现在从信贷市场借钱的进程不像原计划的顺利，但其仍将为这家汽车制造公司完成交易。
题目分析
1．A. 主旨题。判断文章主旨要从文章整体来把握。文章第一段就指出美国股市昨日大幅下跌，接下来的几段都在介绍下跌的状况、原因、相关因素，并且详细介绍了各个股票指数的一系列数据，最后一段又描述了世界其他地区股市情况，可见全文都是在说明美国和世界股市的现状。
2．A. 细节题。根据文章第一段第二句，"从大公司收购到普通人购买房屋等各种事情都变得更加困难"，答案显而易见。其余三个选项均与文章意思相反。
3．C. 细节题。根据文章第五段最后一句，"在昨日收盘前的一小时左右时间里，华尔街的各种主要指数在一天的狂跌之后上涨了约三分之一的幅度"，所以在最后一两个小时内进行买卖的投资者有可能会获利。
4．D. 推理题。根绝文章第四段第一、二句话谈到借钱不顺利，银行不愿意贷款等情况，因此导致了克莱斯勒收购案进展受到了一定的阻碍。这一消息的结果影响到了公司的股价，紧接着第三句话就是谈到了戴姆勒-克莱斯勒股票价格的下跌。可见两者之间是有因果联系的。
5．B. 态度题。作者的态度可以通过材料的选择和措辞来判断。纵观全文，作者基本上都在描述事实和引用各种数据、言论，并没有发表自己的看法。可见，作者对于股市现状的态度是非常客观的。
参考译文
华尔街以及世界许多地区的股票价格昨日都经历了大幅大跌。急剧下跌的主要原因是在与公众对美国经济发展速度放慢的焦虑，以及恶化的信贷状况，因而导致了从大公司收购到普通人购买房屋等各种事情都变得更加困难。几个主要的股市指标-包括道•琼斯工业平均价格指数和标准普尔五百种股份指数-都下挫了两个百分点以上。
自二月底上海投资危机导致全球股市下跌以来，这是华尔街经历过的一天内最大幅度的下跌，而现在正是纽约证券交易所五年来交易规模最大的时候。欧洲股市也遭遇了相当规模的损失，但一些新兴国家股市的损失则更为严重。"股市振荡的预警早已出现，"穆迪经济网首席经济学家马克•赞第说道，"但是直到不久前，许多投资者仍然对于风险视若无睹。"
几周以来股市一直跌宕起伏。亚洲许多公司持续的高盈利报告和经济的迅速发展推动了油价的进一步上涨。但与此同时，已有各种信号显示出美国经济的疲软、房屋购买的信贷困难、以及许多公司受到了高估或者拥有不良的信用记录。
股市大跌的前一日，从戴姆勒-克莱斯勒购买克莱斯勒企业债的一家私有证券公司声称，尽管现在从信贷市场借钱的进程不像原计划那么顺利，但其仍将与这家汽车制造公司完成交易。许多银行都不愿意发放贷款，就像他们也不愿意为一桩涉及英国医药经销连锁商联合博姿公司的交易放款一样。戴姆勒-克莱斯勒的股票价格已从88.91美元猛跌到4.11美元。"这是一种恐慌，但不是对于经济衰退的恐慌。" 太平洋投资管理公司（即Pimco 公司，一家大型债券管理公司）首席投资官比尔"格罗斯说到，"恐慌来源于人们质疑谁会愿意为这个先前宣称的私人证券交易提供2000亿美元的资产外带。"
昨日，道•琼斯工业指数狂泻311.50点，收盘13.473.57点，下跌了百分之2.3，而标准普尔下跌了35.43点，收盘1.482.66点，跌幅为百分之2.3。纳斯达克综合指数下跌了48.83点，收盘2.599.34点，跌幅为百分之1.8。标准普尔全年仍上升了4.5个百分点，道•琼斯工业指数则多出8.1个百分点。但是自从上周创造新纪录以后，标准普尔下降了4.5个百分点。在昨日收盘前的一小时左右时间里，华尔街的各种主要指数在一天的狂跌之后又上涨了约三分之一的幅度。
西班牙、法国、德国的股市损失超过了两个百分点，而英国、阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西的股市则下降了超过三个百分点。亚洲市场昨日并没有经历严重的下跌，在最差交易开始前就已收盘，但周五却已开始下滑。
• 第2篇
War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.
Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans-and traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.
Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.
BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things "their" company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these "preference trees" were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.
Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.
The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason-although having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. "To know your enemy, you must become your enemy," as Sun Tzu would say.
注（1）：本文选自Economist, 05/31/2007
注（2）：本文习题命题模仿对象：第1题模仿2002年真题Text 2第2题和Text 5第3题，第3题模仿1995年真题Text 2第4题，第4题模仿2000年真题Text 4第3题，第5题模仿1998年真题Text 2第4题。
1． The expression "abound in" (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.
[A] be limited
[B] be appreciated
[C] be driven
[D] be plentiful
2． According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.
[A] has been completely abandoned.
[B] fails to consider rivals' reactions.
[C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.
[D] functions well for the development of most companies.
3． The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.
[A] the role playing of competitors
[B] the composition of several turns
[C] the introduction of quantitative factors
[D] the rising popularity of the game
4． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.
[B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.
[C] "Preference trees" refers to desired outcomes of the companies.
[D] War game's predictive ability is not convincing
5． Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?
[A] feedback
[B] mathematics
[C] interaction
[D] consideration of enemy
篇章剖析
本文是一篇说明文，围绕实战演习的商业用途及其价值这个话题进行了分析。第一段先简单介绍了什么是实战演习，第二段则立刻引入话题，指出公司制定战略的传统方式存在的缺点，从而提出本文的主要观点，即公司实战演习能够帮助更好地理解自身与竞争对手的状况。第三段介绍了实战演习的两个特点；第四、五段介绍了两家提供实战演习服务的咨询公司策划的实战演习内容及其效果。最后一段对文章进行了总结，进一步指出了实战演习的重要价值所在。
词汇注释
scenario [si`nB:ri[u] n. 情景；场面 quantitative [`kwRntitEtiv] adj.数量的, 定量的
prompt [prRmpt] v. 激励；刺激 identify [`aifdentifai] vt. 识别, 鉴别
analogy [[`nAlEgi] n. 类似, 类推 pump [pQmp] v. ]把灌注; 倾注
Stock prices tumbled on Wall Street and across much of the rest of the world yesterday. They were driven sharply lower by worries over slowing economic growth in the United States and worsening borrowing conditions that could make everything from huge corporate buyouts to buying a new home more difficult. Major stock market gauges -- including the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index -- were down more than 2 percent.
It was the worst one-day decline on Wall Street since markets plunged worldwide in late February after an investing scare in Shanghai, and it occurred amid the biggest volume of trading on the New York Stock Exchange in five years. Losses were comparable throughout Europe, and larger in many developing countries. ''The preconditions for a shock are in place,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. ''Until very recently investors were very nonchalant about risks.''
Stock markets have been volatile in recent weeks. Continued strong profits for many companies and an economic boom in Asia have helped push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, however, there are various signs of weakness in the American economy and new difficulties in borrowing for many homeowners and companies that are highly leveraged or have poor credit.
The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned. Banks will hold those loans, as they will for a similar deal involving Alliance Boots, a British pharmacy chain. Shares of DaimlerChrysler fell $4.11, to $88.91.'' There is fear, but not a fear of recession,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the Pacific Investment Management Company, known as Pimco, a large bond management firm. ''The fear is directed toward the question of who will be willing to lend $200 billion to provide takeout financing for previously announced private equity deals.''
Yesterday, the Dow industrials plunged 311.50 points, or 2.3 percent, to 13,473.57, while the S.& P. 500 dropped 35.43 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,482.66. The Nasdaq composite index was down 48.83 points, or 1.8 percent, to 2,599.34. The S.& P. is still up 4.5 percent for the year, while the Dow is 8.1 percent higher. But the S.& P. has fallen 4.5 percent since reaching a record last week. In the last hour or so of trading, the major Wall Street indexes recovered about a third of their steepest losses for the day. Losses of more than 2 percent were recorded in Spain, France and Germany, while Britain, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil fell more than 3 percent. Asian markets fell less yesterday, closing before the worst selling began, but opened down sharply on Friday.
注（1）：本文选自New York Times，07/27/2007
注（2）：本文习题命题模仿对象：第1、2题分别模仿2000年真题Text 3第1题和Text 4第3题，第3题模仿2004年真题Text 4第1题，第4题模仿2001年真题Text 1第2题，第5题模仿1999年真题Text 1第4题。
1． The passage is mainly_______.
[A] a review of the current condition of the American and world stock market
[B] an introduction of the world stock market
[C] a survey of the stock deal of DaimlerChrysler
[D] about the ups and downs of stock prices
2． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Currently it is more difficult for Americans to borrow money from banks for house purchase.
[B] The losses from stock markets are similar in U.S. and some developing countries.
[C] Investors were worried about the potential risks in stock market before yesterday.
[D] Economic boom in Asia prevent its stock market from falling.
3． If you were an investor, you might be able to earn money if _______.
[A] you held the shares of DaimlerChrysler
[B] you purchased new shares when the stock market opened yesterday.
[C] you bought and sold shares at the last one or two hours before closing
[D] you didn't trade any shares yesterday.
4． We can infer from the text that _______.
[A] The Chrysler transaction will turn to be a failure.
[B] The banks hold the loans because of Alliance Boots.
[C] Bill Gross thinks the fear is from the huge amount of money.
[D] The difficulty of borrowing leads to the shrinking prices of shares of DaimlerChrysler.
5． The writer's attitude towards the current stock market is_______.
[A] biased
[B] objective
[C] pessimistic
[D] optimistic
篇章剖析
本篇文章是一篇说明文，介绍了美国股市昨日下跌的情况。第一段开门见山地说明了股市大跌的事实及其原因，第二、三段则进一步展开说明了股市最近的状况，影响股市的各种负面因素等。第四段用了一个具体的市场交易事例来说明股市不稳定导致的后果，并引用了经济专业分析师的评论。最后两段综述了美国各大指数以及世界各地股市的涨跌情况，引用了大量的数据。
词汇注释
tumble [`tQmbl] vi. 倒坍; 崩溃; 下跌 volatile [`vRl[tail] adj.可变的, 不稳定的
buyout [`bBi9BUt] n. 全部买下 boom [bu:m] n.繁荣
gauge [^BUdV] n. 方法, 估量, 判断 transaction [trAn`zAkF[n] n. 交易, 事务
plunge [plQndV] vi. 投入, 跳进, 陷入 pharmacy [`fB:m[si] n. 配药业, 制药业
scare [skZ[] n. 惊恐, 恐慌, 恐惧 recession [ri`seF[n] n. 经济衰退, 不景气
precondition [`pri:k[n`diF[n] n. 前提, 先决条件 takeout [`tei9aut] n. 资产外带
nonchalant [`nRnF[l[nt] adj.不关心的, 若无其事的 index [indeks] n. 指数
难句突破
The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned.
主体句式 The plunge came a day after the ... firm ... said ...
结构分析 这是一个复杂句，主句为The plunge came，但在a day after后面的结构比较复杂。首先，buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler是用来修饰he private equity firm，因此后面这个长句的基本结构就是the firm said。said后面跟的是一个间接引语，这个长句的主体是it would complete the transaction for the automaker，之后的despite表示一个转折的意思，而as had been planned是用来形容borrow the money in credit markets的。
句子译文 股市大跌的前一日，从戴姆勒-克莱斯勒购买克莱斯勒企业债的这家私有证券公司声称，尽管现在从信贷市场借钱的进程不像原计划的顺利，但其仍将为这家汽车制造公司完成交易。
题目分析
1．A. 主旨题。判断文章主旨要从文章整体来把握。文章第一段就指出美国股市昨日大幅下跌，接下来的几段都在介绍下跌的状况、原因、相关因素，并且详细介绍了各个股票指数的一系列数据，最后一段又描述了世界其他地区股市情况，可见全文都是在说明美国和世界股市的现状。
2．A. 细节题。根据文章第一段第二句，"从大公司收购到普通人购买房屋等各种事情都变得更加困难"，答案显而易见。其余三个选项均与文章意思相反。
3．C. 细节题。根据文章第五段最后一句，"在昨日收盘前的一小时左右时间里，华尔街的各种主要指数在一天的狂跌之后上涨了约三分之一的幅度"，所以在最后一两个小时内进行买卖的投资者有可能会获利。
4．D. 推理题。根绝文章第四段第一、二句话谈到借钱不顺利，银行不愿意贷款等情况，因此导致了克莱斯勒收购案进展受到了一定的阻碍。这一消息的结果影响到了公司的股价，紧接着第三句话就是谈到了戴姆勒-克莱斯勒股票价格的下跌。可见两者之间是有因果联系的。
5．B. 态度题。作者的态度可以通过材料的选择和措辞来判断。纵观全文，作者基本上都在描述事实和引用各种数据、言论，并没有发表自己的看法。可见，作者对于股市现状的态度是非常客观的。
参考译文
华尔街以及世界许多地区的股票价格昨日都经历了大幅大跌。急剧下跌的主要原因是在与公众对美国经济发展速度放慢的焦虑，以及恶化的信贷状况，因而导致了从大公司收购到普通人购买房屋等各种事情都变得更加困难。几个主要的股市指标-包括道•琼斯工业平均价格指数和标准普尔五百种股份指数-都下挫了两个百分点以上。
自二月底上海投资危机导致全球股市下跌以来，这是华尔街经历过的一天内最大幅度的下跌，而现在正是纽约证券交易所五年来交易规模最大的时候。欧洲股市也遭遇了相当规模的损失，但一些新兴国家股市的损失则更为严重。"股市振荡的预警早已出现，"穆迪经济网首席经济学家马克•赞第说道，"但是直到不久前，许多投资者仍然对于风险视若无睹。"
几周以来股市一直跌宕起伏。亚洲许多公司持续的高盈利报告和经济的迅速发展推动了油价的进一步上涨。但与此同时，已有各种信号显示出美国经济的疲软、房屋购买的信贷困难、以及许多公司受到了高估或者拥有不良的信用记录。
股市大跌的前一日，从戴姆勒-克莱斯勒购买克莱斯勒企业债的一家私有证券公司声称，尽管现在从信贷市场借钱的进程不像原计划那么顺利，但其仍将与这家汽车制造公司完成交易。许多银行都不愿意发放贷款，就像他们也不愿意为一桩涉及英国医药经销连锁商联合博姿公司的交易放款一样。戴姆勒-克莱斯勒的股票价格已从88.91美元猛跌到4.11美元。"这是一种恐慌，但不是对于经济衰退的恐慌。" 太平洋投资管理公司（即Pimco 公司，一家大型债券管理公司）首席投资官比尔"格罗斯说到，"恐慌来源于人们质疑谁会愿意为这个先前宣称的私人证券交易提供2000亿美元的资产外带。"
昨日，道•琼斯工业指数狂泻311.50点，收盘13.473.57点，下跌了百分之2.3，而标准普尔下跌了35.43点，收盘1.482.66点，跌幅为百分之2.3。纳斯达克综合指数下跌了48.83点，收盘2.599.34点，跌幅为百分之1.8。标准普尔全年仍上升了4.5个百分点，道•琼斯工业指数则多出8.1个百分点。但是自从上周创造新纪录以后，标准普尔下降了4.5个百分点。在昨日收盘前的一小时左右时间里，华尔街的各种主要指数在一天的狂跌之后又上涨了约三分之一的幅度。
西班牙、法国、德国的股市损失超过了两个百分点，而英国、阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西的股市则下降了超过三个百分点。亚洲市场昨日并没有经历严重的下跌，在最差交易开始前就已收盘，但周五却已开始下滑。
• 第2篇
War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.
Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans-and traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.
Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.
BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things "their" company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these "preference trees" were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.
Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.
The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason-although having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. "To know your enemy, you must become your enemy," as Sun Tzu would say.
注（1）：本文选自Economist, 05/31/2007
注（2）：本文习题命题模仿对象：第1题模仿2002年真题Text 2第2题和Text 5第3题，第3题模仿1995年真题Text 2第4题，第4题模仿2000年真题Text 4第3题，第5题模仿1998年真题Text 2第4题。
1． The expression "abound in" (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.
[A] be limited
[B] be appreciated
[C] be driven
[D] be plentiful
2． According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.
[A] has been completely abandoned.
[B] fails to consider rivals' reactions.
[C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.
[D] functions well for the development of most companies.
3． The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.
[A] the role playing of competitors
[B] the composition of several turns
[C] the introduction of quantitative factors
[D] the rising popularity of the game
4． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.
[B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.
[C] "Preference trees" refers to desired outcomes of the companies.
[D] War game's predictive ability is not convincing
5． Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?
[A] feedback
[B] mathematics
[C] interaction
[D] consideration of enemy
篇章剖析
本文是一篇说明文，围绕实战演习的商业用途及其价值这个话题进行了分析。第一段先简单介绍了什么是实战演习，第二段则立刻引入话题，指出公司制定战略的传统方式存在的缺点，从而提出本文的主要观点，即公司实战演习能够帮助更好地理解自身与竞争对手的状况。第三段介绍了实战演习的两个特点；第四、五段介绍了两家提供实战演习服务的咨询公司策划的实战演习内容及其效果。最后一段对文章进行了总结，进一步指出了实战演习的重要价值所在。
词汇注释
scenario [si`nB:ri[u] n. 情景；场面 quantitative [`kwRntitEtiv] adj.数量的, 定量的
prompt [prRmpt] v. 激励；刺激 identify [`aifdentifai] vt. 识别, 鉴别
analogy [[`nAlEgi] n. 类似, 类推 pump [pQmp] v. ]把灌注; 倾注
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