It is often said that something occurring once is a fluke and twice is a coincidence. But three times marks a trend. Considering this old adage, the bulls have to like what they're seeing.
老话常说事情发生一次是偶然,两次是巧合,但三次就代表一种趋势了。从这个角度说,看涨股市的人一定会为他们看到的情况感到高兴。
Three high-profile investors have touted stocks this week, with the latest praise coming from Warren Buffett. In an article posted on Fortune's website, the billionaire
investor says stocks are a more
attractive long-term
investment than gold or bonds.
三位备受瞩目的投资者本周都在吹捧股市,巴菲特(Warren Buffett)就是其中最新的一位。在《财富》(Fortune)杂志网站上发表的一篇文章中,这位亿万富豪投资者说,从长期看,相比黄金或债券,股票是更具吸引力的投资品。
'I believe that over any
extended period of time this
category of investing will prove to be the
runawaywinner among the three we've examined,' he says. 'More important, it will be by far the safest.'
巴菲特说,我相信从长期看,在我们研究过的这三类投资中,股票投资会被证明是最后的大赢家。更重要的是,股票是迄今为止最为安全的投资品。
Buffett has a history of praising stocks, so today's letter isn't exactly a revelation. But the timing coincides with what others have been saying.
巴菲特素有看好股市的历史,所以他此番讲话并不算很有新意。但这一讲话的时间点恰和另外两位投资人重合。
Buffett joins the notoriously-bearish Nouriel Roubini and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink as bigwig investors who have praised stocks. Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for
accurately forecasting the 2008
financial crisis, thinks the rally has legs and can continue through the first half of the year.
与
巴菲特一样看好股市的另外两位重要投资者是"臭名昭著"的看空者鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)和贝莱德(BlackRock)首席执行长(CEO)芬克(Larry Fink)。鲁比尼因准确预测2008年金融危机而得到了"末日博士"的绰号。他认为本轮股市反弹行情能够延续整个上半年。
Roubini isn't
totally bullish. His firm still has a year-end S&P 500 price target of 1,300, meaning he thinks stocks will end the year lower than they are now. But the fact that Roubini isn't pushing a doomsday scenario is, itself, bullish.
鲁比尼并不完全看好股市。他所在的机构认为到今年年底标准普尔500指数的目标点位为1,300点,这意味着他认为今年年终时该股指要低于目前水平。但鲁比尼没有宣扬"末日论"这一事实就是他看好股市的证明。
BlackRock's Fink says the current
environment is so
favorable for risky assets that people should be 100% invested in stocks. No questions asked.
贝莱德的芬克说,当前的市场环境十分有利于风险资产,投资者应该将全部资金投入股市。他说话的口气不容置疑。
As all this optimism bubbles, the cynics inside us at MarketBeat wonder whether the contrarian view will take place sooner than later. When bullish
sentiment starts
running rampant and many folks start believing the same thing, that's typically the sign of a top.
随着所有这些乐观论调不断冒出,《市场脉动》栏目那些愤世嫉俗的小编们不禁想到,是否很快就会出现与此相反的逆向观点?当看涨情绪开始蔓延、许多人开始相信同样的观点时,这通常是股市见顶的信号。
The bullish case for equities is well documented. The Fed's near-zero interest rate
policy isn't going away
anytime soon and more accommodative measures could be on the horizon, which should continue pushing investors toward riskier assets.
眼下看好股市的理由非常充分:美联储不会很快退出接近于零的利率政策;一些更为宽松的措施可能很快就会推出,这会进一步促使投资者选择风险更高的资产。
Valuations still aren't expensive, the
economy is improving and dividend-paying stocks are the way to stay safe but remain in equities. The list drags on.
此外,估值水平仍然不高,经济状况正在改善,选择支付股息的股票是投资股市却又保证投资安全的一种方法。诸如此类的因素还有很多。
The stars are aligning for the rally to continue.
三位明星投资人都认为这一轮反弹行情能够延续。
But when the evidence for
additional gains looks so obvious, it is often the moment when the market will do the opposite and surprise everyone.
但当股市会继续上涨的证据看起来如此明显时,市场往往会逆向而动,让每一位投资者感到意外。
As UBS' Art Cashin like to say, 'stay alert, stay nimble.'
就像瑞银(UBS)的卡辛(Art Cashin)常说的那样,要"保持警惕,保持敏捷的反应"。