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去年股市上的失败品种可能成为今年的赢家

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Last year's stock-market goats are this year's heroes, and vice versa. But investors betting that the reversal will persist should tread carefully, analysts say.


去年股市上的失败品种可能成为今年的赢家，反之亦然。不过，分析师们称，今年想把赌注压在这一规律上的投资者还是应该三思而后行。



While 2011 was tumultuous, this year has been eerily calm. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, or VIX, has dropped about 20% this year, to 18, the lowest level since July.


2011年的美国股市可谓跌宕起伏，2012年却平静得有些诡异。芝加哥期权交易所市场波动率指数(Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index，简称VIX)今年已下跌20%左右，至18点，为2011年7月以来的最低水平。



Yet even as the overall market has settled down, the underlying sectors have undergone a transformation. Traders have punished just about everything that worked in 2011, and lavished love on last year's losers.


虽然股市整体有所沉寂，但基础板块正在重新洗牌。股市交易者摒弃了2011年表现出众的所有品种，转而对去年表现不佳的品种青眼有加。



The reversal bears some of the hallmarks of the January effect, a market anomaly in which small and beaten-down stocks outperform larger and stronger ones during the first month of the year. But the move has been turbocharged by loose monetarypolicy on two continents: the European Central Bank's $500 billion in fresh lending to Europe's banks and the Federal Reserve's stated willingness to keep interest rates low through 2014.


这是市场反常现象"一月效应"(January Effect)的典型表现之一，即在每年的头一个月，上一年表现低迷的小市值股票会比上一年表现较好的大市值股票回报率更高。不过，今年这一趋势还受到了两个大陆宽松货币政策的刺激：一是欧洲央行(European Central Bank)给欧洲各家银行新拨5000亿美元贷款，二是美联储(Federal Reserve)宣布要把低利率政策维持到2014年。



The magnitude of the sector rotation has left many investors scratching their heads. 'While the direction is consistent with history, the violence of it has caught me by surprise,' says Vadim Zlotnikov, chief market strategist at money manager AllianceBernstein. 'These are enormous reversals.'


板块轮动的规模之大让许多投资者挠头。联博基金(AllianceBernstein)首席市场策略师瓦迪姆•兹洛特尼科夫(Vadim Zlotnikov)说，"虽然这一趋势与历史规律一致，但其强度之大让我措手不及。这是一次巨大的反转。"



Take last year's biggest winners and losersΰutility stocks and financial stocks, respectively. Utilities gained 20% in 2011, while financials lost 17%. But this year through Jan. 26, utilities had lost 2.3%, while financials had surged 8.4%ΰa nearly 11-point difference. The gap between the previous year's best- and worst-performing sectors hasn't been that vast since 2001 (though it came close in 2008).


以去年最大的赢家公共事业板块和最大的输家金融板块为例：2011年公共事业板块上涨20%，而金融板块下跌17%；但今年截至1月26日，公共事业板块下跌2.3%，而金融板块上升8.4%──两者相差近11个百分点。这种赢家和输家板块轮动的涨跌幅之差为自2001年以来的最大幅度（只有2008年曾接近过这一水平）。



More broadly, the 50 best-performing stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in 2011 have lagged behind the 50 worst-performing stocks this year by nearly 12 percentage points, according to Bespoke Investment Group data. 'What is working now is entirely the opposite of what worked last year,' says Sudhir Nanda, a portfolio manager at mutual-fund company T. Rowe Price Group. 'People are selling winners and buying the losers.'


从更广层面来看，据贝斯普克投资集团(Bespoke Investment Group)的数据，标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)2011年表现最佳的50只股票到2012年目前为止的表现要比2011年表现最差的50只股票落后近12个百分点。共同基金公司普信集团(T. Rowe Price Group)投资组合经理苏德尔•南达(Sudhir Nanda)说，"现在表现好的正是那些去年表现差的。人们正在卖出去年的赢家，买入去年的输家。"



The change has been particularly painful for investors who sought comfort in the market's safest stocks. Dividend payers have gone nowhere this year, while companies that don't pay dividends have jumped 9.5%. After gaining 15% in 2011, the steady stocks that make up the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index have dropped 0.5% this year, trailing their riskier counterparts in the S&P High Beta Index by more than 12 percentage points.


对那些为寻求安定感而持有市场最安全股票的投资者来说，这种变化尤其令人痛苦。分红类股票今年的表现平平，而不分红的上市公司股价已飙升9.5%。构成标普500低波动性指数(S&P 500 Low Volatility Index)的成份股2011年上涨15%，今年却下跌0.5%，落后于相对应的风险较高的标普高贝塔指数(S&P High Beta Index)12个百分点以上。



Mutual funds have been whipped about, too. Of the 82 large-cap funds with more than $100 million in assets that ranked in the top 10% of their Morningstar category in 2011, the median fund ranks in the 86th percentile so far this year.


共同基金也很惨淡。在2011年晨星公司(Morningstar)统计的表现最佳10%基金公司中，有82个管理资产超过1亿美元的大市值基金，但2012年至今，这些基金的中位值仅排在业绩百分比的第86位。



Federated Strategic Value Dividend gained 14% in 2011, putting it in the top 1% of large-cap value funds, but has lost 1.7% this year, placing it in the 99th percentile of peers. GMO Quality III has returned just 2.3% in 2012, putting it in the 98th percentile of large-blend funds, after gaining 12% in 2011.


2011年，Federated Strategic Value Dividend基金的回报率为14%，在所有大市值价值基金中名列前1%，但今年已亏损1.7%，跌落至第99%的区间。GMO Quality III基金去年的回报率为12%，而今年仅为2.3%，跌落至第98%的区间。



So, is it time to dive headlong into the riskiest stocks? Not necessarily. The January Effect often peters out toward the end of the month, when stocks that had been outperformers the previous year typically reassert their leadership. And with negotiations between Greece and its creditors still rattling markets, analysts say investors should be wary of another Europe-centered blowup.


那么，现在应该一头扎进风险最高的股票中去吗？不一定。"一月效应"往往在临近一月末的时候逐渐消失，而上一年度表现较好的股票通常会重新赢得主导权。希腊与贷款方的谈判过程仍在牵动市场的心，分析师建议投资者要当心以欧洲债务危机为导火索的另一次市场异动。



'There's still a lot of uncertainty,' says Sam Katzman, chief investment officer of New York-based Constellation Wealth Advisors. 'The rally has been good, but is it sustainable?'


纽约星宿财富顾问公司(Constellation Wealth Advisors)的首席投资长山姆•卡兹曼(Sam Katzman)说，"现在还有很多不确定性。近期的市场反弹很好，但能不能持续？"



Still, investors can use the recent reversal to decide whether a stock or fund is worth keeping.


不过，投资者可以利用近期板块反转的时机来决定某个股票或基金是否值得继续持有。



For instance, investors in the Fairholme Fund, which is up 12% this year after falling 32% in 2011, could use the rally to sell part of their position if they are worried the surge in financial stocks will be short-lived or have decided they can't handle the risk of another such loss. Recent converts to low-volatility strategies can use the recent rally to decide whether a strategy that lags behind during rallies of riskier stocks is for them.


举例而言，Fairholme Fund基金去年下跌32%，今年上涨12%，如果投资者担心金融股反弹只是昙花一现，或认为无法承受另一次金融股的下跌风险，那就可以借此时机卖出一部分。最近才开始买入低波动性股票的投资者则可以审视一下，在高风险股票上涨而低波动性股票落后的情况下，是否还要继续坚持这一投资策略。



'Investors need to understand why a fund did well or underperformed,' says Todd Rosenbluth, a mutual-fund strategist at S&P Capital IQ. 'Then they need to decide if they're in the fund for the right reason.'


S&P Capital IQ公司的基金分析师托德•罗森布鲁斯(Todd Rosenbluth)说，"投资者首先要搞清楚某个基金表现好或者不好的原因何在。然后必须判断决定，他们投资某个基金的理由是否充分。"



Or investors can split the difference. AllianceBernstein's Mr. Zlotnikov recommends holding a portfolio that contains a mix of dividend-payers as well as risky stocks, and rebalancing the portfolio at market extremes.


或者，投资者可以采取中庸之道。联博基金的兹洛特尼科夫建议投资组合中既要有分红型股票，也要有高风险股票，并在市场出现极端情况时重新调整组合的配比。



'You can try to make short-term bets,' he says. 'But diversification is the right thing to do.'


兹洛特尼科夫说，"你可以尝试押注一些短期投资，但投资多元化总是没错的。"



BEN LEVISOHN


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