The U.S. economy is limping along, unemployment is still high, and gasoline demand for this time of year is at its lowest since the 1990s.
美国经济正在一瘸一拐地前行，失业率依旧高企，一年中这一段时间对汽油的需求达到了上世纪90年代以来的最低点。
那么，为什么国内一桶原油的价格还在100美元左右呢？
Nymex crude futures have been on a tear lately, soaring 35% from the beginning of October to their recent peak in mid-November, and have crossed the $100-a-barrel threshold a handful of times. Various causes have been cited, including optimism that Europe's debt crisis would be resolved soon and a tightening supply picture. Fears have also surfaced that global supplies could be disrupted because of geopolitical fallout over Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions.
纽约商品交易所(Nymex)原油期货价格进来一路上扬，从10月初到11月中旬达到近期高点的时候，已经大幅上涨了35%，并且多次跨过了每桶100美元的标志线。油价上涨的原因多种多样，比如外界对欧洲危机将很快得到解决的乐观情绪，以及原油供应即将吃紧的预期。还有人担心由于伊朗在核武器方面的野心造成的地缘政治的影响，全球供应可能会出现扰动。
What Next?
然后呢？
That helps explain where prices have been. As for where they are headed from here, the big-picture consensus is that despiteweakness in the U.S., economic growth and energy demand are strong enough in the rest of the world, particularly in emerging markets, for traders to continue bidding up prices.
这些理由有助于解释油价何以达到现今的高位。至于油价今后的表现，外界的一致看法是，尽管美国需求不振，其他国家的经济增长和能源需求依然强劲，特别是在新兴市场，交易者仍会继续抬高原油的价格。
'The U.S. is no longer in the driver's seat as far as oil prices,' says James D. Hamilton, an economics professor at the University of California, San Diego, who has researched the relationship between energy prices and the economy.
加利福尼亚大学(University of California)圣迭戈分校的经济学教授汉密尔顿(James D. Hamilton)说，在油价问题上，美国已经失去了主导力。汉密尔顿曾对能源价格与经济之间的关系进行过研究。
Growth in demand in emerging markets as a whole is expected to slow from the torrid pace seen in recent years. But forecasts say it will still outpace demand in the U.S. and Europe and will still be strong enough to push oil prices higher. In the major emerging markets that oil investors focus on, such as China, India and Brazil, demand is still expected to grow 4.6% this year and 4.4% in 2012, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
新兴市场近年来的整体需求增速很快，但预计将出现放缓态势。不过据预计，增速仍将高于美国和欧洲，并将进一步推高油价。根据美国能源情报署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)的数据，在投资者重点关注的主要的新兴市场国家（比如中国、印度和巴西）中，今年对于原油的需求将增加4.6%，2012年将增加4.4%。
'Emerging markets will probably continue to grow faster than advanced economies,' José Sérgio Gabrielli de Azevedo, chief executive of Brazilian oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said earlier this month at the Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum in New York. 'The growth pattern of those economies is more energy-intensive than [first-world] growth.' He added: 'The era of cheap oil is over.'
巴西石油巨头Petroleo Brasileiro SA（即外界熟知的Petrobras）的首席执行长阿泽维多(Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo)本月早些时候曾在纽约举行的普氏能源资讯全球能源展望论坛(Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum)上说，新兴市场国家经济增速很可能仍旧高于发达经济体；这些国家的增长模式是能源密集型的，而不像发达国家那样是增长型的。他还补充说，廉价石油的时代已经过去了。
Tight global supplies are expected to keep prices high as well, even with the resumption of flows from Libya, where for months the revolution halted prewar exports of 1.6 million barrels a day. As much as one-half of Libya's former oil exports are expected to be restored by year-end, but there is still little slack in the global system.
就算利比亚原油供应得以恢复，全球供应紧张预计也将令油价居高不下。利比亚战前每天出口160万桶石油，但革命发生后出口中断。据预计，到年底前，利比亚的出口量将恢复一半，不过全球范围内的供应仍然紧张。
Says Mr. Hamilton, 'As long as growth from the emerging economies continues, as long as world production fails to keep up with that, we're going to see upwardpressure on prices.'
汉密尔顿说，只要新兴经济体持续增长，只要全球原油产出还跟不上经济增长步伐，油价还将承受上行压力。
Rising prices are leading to changes in the direction of flows in the global marketplace for oil products. One big example: Surging foreign demand for fuel products refined from crude
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