This year's mutual-fund scoreboard highlights an interesting conundrum about investing in emerging markets.
年的共同基金业绩情况凸显出投资新兴市场的一个有趣难题。
Economies of big emerging-markets countries such as China, India and Russia have been growing much faster than the plodding U.S. economy. Yet if you own a fund that focuses on emerging-markets stocks, the chances are good that its
performance this year has been lagging far behind the returns of the U.S.-stock funds in your portfolio.
中国、印度和俄罗斯等主要新兴市场国家的经济增长一直比缓慢前行的美国快得多。然而,如果你持有一只专注于新兴市场股票的基金,它今年的业绩很可能远远落后于你所持的美国股票基金的回报率。
How could that be?
怎么会这样?
The idea that a nation's economic
performance is the main driver of returns in equities is one of several unfounded beliefs many investors have about the
relative merits of developed and emerging markets. And this year, it has helped fuel strong demand for emerging-markets stock funds, which were one of the few areas in the equities fund world to see continued inflows during recent stock-market volatility.
很多投资者对发达市场和新兴市场的相对价值存在数个毫无根据的看法,其中包括认为一个国家的经济表现是股市回报的主要推动力。今年,这种想法推动了对新兴市场股票基金的强劲需求。在最近的股市波动中,新兴市场股票基金是股票基金世界中为数不多的几个有持续资金流入的领域之一。
If you are
considering buying or selling an emerging-markets stock fund, it might be worth
taking a closer look at some of these myths:
如果你正在考虑买进或卖出一只新兴市场股票基金,那么更仔细地审视一番以下这些不实之说或许是值得的。
MYTH 1: High stock valuations aren't a big deal in fast-growing economies.
不实之说一:在迅速增长的经济体中,高股票估值并不重要。
The
reality is that even in fast-growing nations it matters whether stocks are cheap or
expensiverelative to company fundamentals.
实际情况是,即使是在经济迅速增长的国家,股票价格相对于公司基本面来说是低还是高也是重要的。
Investors have flocked to emerging markets for several years, expecting stronger economic growth there to produce stock returns well above those in the U.S. and Europe. As a result, emerging-markets stocks grew
relativelyexpensive among global markets, based on
valuation yardsticks such as price-to-earnings ratios.
数年来,投资者纷纷涌入新兴市场,期待那里更强劲的经济增长能比美国和欧洲的股市带来更高的回报。结果就是,根据市盈率等估值标准来看,新兴市场股票在全球市场中变得价格相对较高。
The idea was that the high valuations weren't all that important. But they were. And investors discovered that, to their chagrin, when authorities in China, Brazil and other nations,
concerned that their economies were overheating, tightened their money supplies and took other steps to
temper growth and
discourage speculation. Diversified emerging-markets stock funds were down 17.1% on average this year through Nov. 30, according to Thomson Reuters Corp.'s Lipper unit. And the stocks aren't expected to rally
stronglyanytime soon, according to a
survey of forecasters by New York-based Heckman Global Advisors.
这些投资者的想法是高估值一点也不重要。但实际上却是重要的。当中国、巴西和其他国家当局由于担心本国经济开始过热而收紧货币供应量并采取其他措施为经济增长降温、打击投机行为时,投资者才懊恼地发现这一点。据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters Corp.)旗下子公司理柏(Lipper)的数据,今年截至11月30日,各类新兴市场股票基金平均跌了17.1%。此外,据纽约Heckman Global Advisors对经济学家的一项调查显示,受访者预测股市不会很快大幅上涨。
Meanwhile, in the U.S., investors bid stock prices
sharply lower during late summer amid worries that the
economy was headed for another recession. But when economic data continued to suggest that growth would remain positive, if sluggish, U.S. stocks began to look like a bargain.
与此同时,在美国,由于投资者担心美国经济将再次陷入衰退,今年夏末美股大幅下挫。不过,当经济数据不断显示即使不太景气、经济仍有望实现增长时,美国股票开始看起来似乎价格很低值得买进。
Investors rushed back in. Through Nov. 30, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was down 0.9% in price and up 1.1% in total return including dividends.
投资者又争相重返美国股市。截至11月30日,标普500指数跌了0.9%,而包括派息在内的总回报增长了1.1%。
Here is a silver lining: If you are
considering adding emerging-markets funds to your portfolio, this might be an opportunity. 'On a
historical basis, emerging markets look pretty cheap today,' said Michael Reynal, who heads the emerging-markets group at Principal Global Investors in Des Moines, Iowa.
不幸中的万幸是:如果你正在考虑在投资组合中增加新兴市场基金,这可能是个机会。美国爱荷华州Principal Global Investors新兴市场部门负责人雷纳尔(Michael Reynal)说,按历史记录来看,新兴市场目前看起来很便宜。
MYTH 2: Emerging-markets stocks are well-insulated from
financial upheavals
elsewhere in the world.
不实之说二:新兴市场股市与世界其他地方的金融动荡有效地隔离开来。
The thinking here is that emerging markets would march to their own beat simply because of their supercharged growth. That might have been true in the past. But today, stocks in most emerging nations trade closely in sync with those in New York and London. That has happened as companies in emerging nations have become bigger players on the world stage and as global flows of money have accelerated.
这类投资者认为,由于新兴市场的高增长,他们将势不可挡、按照自己的步伐阔步前进。过去或许是这样。但如今,大部分新兴市场的股票交易与纽约和伦敦股市密切同步。这是随着新兴市场国家的公司在世界舞台上开始发挥更大的作用和全球资金流动加速而产生的。
This year, as in developed markets, emerging-markets stocks were hit by fears about
financial contagion spreading from Europe. In fact, they were hurt more than U.S. stocks. That is because the U.S., for all its economic and
fiscal headwinds, still is viewed as the safest place to park money.
因担心欧洲债务危机蔓延,新兴市场股市今年和发达市场一样受到了打击。事实上,新兴市场股市受到的打击比美国股市还重。这是因为美国虽然在经济上和财政上面临着各种不利因素,但仍被视作存放资金最安全的地方。
As you manage your portfolio allocations, think of emerging-markets stocks as akin to U.S. small-cap stocks in terms of risk, said Brian Gendreau, a
veteran Wall Street money
manager and market strategist for Cetera Financial Group, an El Segundo, Calif., advisory concern. 'The more you allocate to emerging markets, the higher your expected return--and the higher the volatility of your portfolio,' he said.
华尔街资深基金经理、加州埃尔塞贡多一家咨询公司Cetera Financial Group的市场策略师詹德鲁(Brian Gendreau)说,在管理投资组合的配置时,要把新兴市场股当作风险和美国小盘股一样的投资对象来考虑。他说,往新兴市场配置得越多,投资组合的预期回报率越高,但同时波动性也就越高。
MYTH 3: Emerging markets are a growth play.
不实之说三:在新兴市场应投资于成长型基金。
Emerging-markets funds may indeed provide good growth if you
invest smartly and have a long time horizon. But that is not the whole story. It also may be worth looking at emerging-markets funds that can provide
income by focusing on bonds or dividend-paying stocks.
如果投资方式得当、期限较长,那么新兴市场型基金确实有可能带来很好的成长。但这还不是全部。那些能够通过专攻债券或分红型股票而带来收益的新兴市场基金,或许也值得看一看。
Eaton Vance Emerging Markets Local Income invests in bonds of emerging nations, such as Malaysia and Indonesia, that are denominated in their local currencies. It is designed to provide
income and diversification for U.S. dollar-based investors and it recently yielded about 4.7%. WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income is an exchange-traded fund that focuses on emerging-markets stocks with high
dividend yields. It yields about 8.5%.
基金"Eaton Vance Emerging Markets Local Income"投资于马来西亚和印度尼西亚等新兴市场国家以本币计价的债券。这是为了给以美元为基础的投资者带来收益,提供多样化选择。最近,这只基金的收益率在4.7%左右。"WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income"基金是一只交易所交易基金,专攻高股息的新兴市场股票,收益率在8.5%左右。
Some newer funds own mixes of emerging-markets stocks and bonds, similar to U.S.-focused balanced or allocation funds.
一些新基金持有新兴市场股票和债券的组合,跟专攻美国的平衡型基金(balanced fund)或配置型基金(allocation fund)相似。
Strategic Latin America, which has about $24 million in assets, holds a
roughly equal mix of equities and bonds. Its
performance was hurt recently by big declines in Latin American stocks and currencies. But over long periods, its share price should gyrate less than half as much as major U.S. stock indexes, said the fund's manager, Heiner Skaliks, making it possibly useful as a diversifier.
"Strategic Latin America"基金管理着2,400万美元左右的资产,所持股票和债券比重大致相等。最近因为拉丁美洲股市和汇率大幅下降,这只基金的表现受到冲击。但该基金的经理斯卡利克斯(Heiner Skaliks)说,从长远来看,其份额价格的波动幅度应该不及美国主要股指的一半,所以作为一个实现投资多样化的工具,它还是有用的。
Pacific Investment Management Co. and Franklin Templeton Investments this year also launched funds that provide
exposure to a range of emerging-markets assets, such as stocks and bonds. But these are still
relatively untested.
太平洋投资管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 和Franklin Templeton Investments今年也推出了为投资者提供一系列新兴市场资产(如股票和债券)敞口的基金。但相对而言,这些基金尚未接受市场的检验。
MYTH 4: Emerging-markets currencies will
appreciate as the dollar continues its long-term decline.
不实之说四:随着美元继续呈现长期贬值态势,新兴市场国家的货币将升值。
That may prove true over many years, amplifying the returns for U.S. investors who buy into emerging markets, but it certainly wasn't the case in recent months. So far this year, emerging-markets currencies have generally weakened against the dollar; while the MSCI Emerging Market Index was down 14.8% in local currencies through Nov. 30, it was down 19.4% in dollar terms.
这一点可能在很多年时间里都会被证明是真理,并增加那些买入新兴市场国家货币的美国投资者的回报,但最近几个月的情况显然不是这样。今年截至目前,新兴市场国家的货币兑美元普遍走软,而截至11月30日,摩根士丹利新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Market Index)以当地货币计下跌了14.8%,以美元计下跌了19.4%。
In September, worries about Europe's
fiscalcrisis sparked a rush back to the dollar, which investors viewed as a
temporarily safer haven than some alternatives. The currencies of Brazil, Hungary, South Africa and Poland, among others, were savaged. The two Central European currencies trade closely in sync with the euro, because of close trading ties, and so slid as Europe's
financialcrisis flared. Brazil's widely traded
currency may just have been an easy asset for big investors to sell when markets turned more choppy.
今年9月,对欧洲财政危机的担忧引发投资者争相重新买入美元,他们认为,短暂来看,美元作为避险天堂的安全性要比其它一些替代投资品高。巴西、匈牙利、南非和波兰等国的货币遭到猛烈打压。由于贸易往来密切,中欧两个国家的货币汇率与欧元接近同步,因此在欧洲爆发金融危机时,它们的货币也出现了大幅贬值。在市场波动更为剧烈的时候,被广泛交易的巴西货币对大型投资者来说可能不过是个容易卖出的资产。
In calmer times, emerging-markets currencies could
generate very
attractive returns for U.S. investors, gaining against the dollar as the result of global
financial imbalances, said Michael Cirami, who helps oversee emerging-markets funds at Eaton Vance Management. But sometimes they can significantly add to the volatility of emerging-markets funds, he cautions.
投资管理公司Eaton Vance Management帮助监管新兴市场基金的塞拉米(Michael Cirami)说,在相对较平静的时期,因全球金融失衡而对美元升值的新兴市场国家货币或许能为美国投资者带来非常可观的回报。但他提醒说,这种情况也可极大地增加新兴市场基金的波动性。
MYTH 5: You can do even better by concentrating on just a few of the strongest emerging nations.
不实之说五:仅关注几个实力最强的新兴国家便可以实现更出色业绩。
In recent years, investors have piled into exchange-traded funds that focus on individual nations, such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. iShares MSCI Brazil Index, among the largest, has about $9
billion in assets.
近年来,投资者纷纷买入专注于巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国等单个国家的交易所买卖基金(ETF)。其中,规模最大的ETF之一安硕摩根士丹利资本国际巴西指数(iShares MSCI Brazil Index)基金管理着约90亿美元资产。
But such ETFs offer much less diversification. And because they are highly liquid, or easy to trade in large amounts, their prices can be buffeted by
abrupt shifts in global
investorsentiment that may have little to do with longer-term fundamentals.
但这种ETF的多元化程度要低得多。而且由于它们具有极高的流动性(容易大量交易),所以在价格上可能会受到国际投资者情绪突然变化的冲击,而他们的情绪变化可能与较长期的经济基本面没什么关系。
This year through Nov. 30, for example, WisdomTree India Earnings is down 33% even though India's
economy is likely to grow by better than 7% in both 2011 and 2012, according to Morgan Stanley Research.
举例来说,据摩根士丹利研究部(Morgan Stanley Research)数据显示,今年截至11月30日,智慧树印度收益基金(WisdomTree India Earnings)下跌了33%,尽管印度2011年和2012年的经济增长率可能均超过7%。
Investors who want to capitalize on the growth prospects of emerging markets, but with less volatility, should consider funds that target broad regions or a wide range of emerging-markets countries, said Karin Anderson, a
senior analyst at Morningstar. Among her recommendations is Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which holds about 900 stocks in nearly two dozen emerging countries.
晨星(Morningstar)高级分析师安德森(Karin Anderson)说,那些寄望利用新兴市场增长前景但同时希望降低波动的投资者应当考虑以广阔地区或大范围的新兴市场国家为目标的基金。她推荐的基金之一是持有二十多个新兴市场国家约900支股票的Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF。