On Predicting the Future
关于未来的预测
'I'll always stay connected with Apple. I hope that throughout my life I'll sort of have the thread of my life and the thread of Apple weave in and out of each other, like a tapestry. There may be a few years when I'm not there, but I'll always come back. [Playboy, Feb. 1, 1985]
我和苹果的联系永远都不会断。我希望在自己的一生中，我个人的生命历程可以和苹果的发展过程交织在一起，就像一幅织锦那样。也许我会有几年时间不在苹果，但我一定还会回来的。(《花花公子》杂志(Playboy)，1985年2月1日)
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'The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it to a nationwide communications network. We're just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people as remarkable as the telephone.' [Playboy, Feb. 1, 1985]
未来大多数人买家用电脑最强烈的动机，将是通过这台电脑和全美的通讯网络相连。我们正处于一个真正的非凡突破的起始阶段，对大多数人来说都是如此，其意义与电话的影响一样重大。(《花花公子》杂志(Playboy)，1985年2月1日)
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'The desktop computer industry is dead. Innovation has virtually ceased. Microsoft dominates with very little innovation. That's over. Apple lost. The desktop market has entered the dark ages, and it's going to be in the dark ages for the next 10 years, or certainly for the rest of this decade.
台式电脑行业走到了尽头，基本上已无创新可言。微软占据着统治地位，几乎看不到创新。游戏结束了，苹果输了。台式电脑市场已经进入黑暗期，而且未来10年或至少现在所处的90年代余下的时间都将是黑暗期。
'It's like when IBM drove a lot of innovation out of the computer industry before the microprocessor came along. Eventually, Microsoft will crumble because of complacency, and maybe some new things will grow. But until that happens, until there's some fundamental technology shift, it's just over.' [Wired, February 1996]
现在的情形就像是在微处理器问世之前，IBM把很多创新拒于电脑行业之外。微软最终将因骄傲自满而走向末路，或许会有一些新生事物出现。但在那之前，在出现根本性的技术变革之前，这个行业完了。(《连线》杂志(Wired)，1996年2月)
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The desktop metaphor was invented because one, you were a stand-alone device, and two, you had to manage your own storage. That's a very big thing in a desktop world. And that may go away. You may not have to manage your own storage. You may not store much before too long. [Wired, February 1996]
之所以发明出"台式电脑"这个词，一是因为它是个独立的设备，二是因为你要管理自己存储的东西。存储在台式电脑行业非常重要，不过它可能会逐渐消失。以后你可能不必管理自己的存储内容，可能过不了多久你就不用再存储很多东西。(《连线》杂志(Wired)，1996年2月)
Jennifer Valentino-DeVries
- computer [kəm´pju:tə]
n.计算机；电子计算器 (初中英语单词) - beginning [bi´giniŋ] n.开始，开端；起源 (初中英语单词)
- remarkable [ri´mɑ:kəbl] a.值得注意的；显著的 (初中英语单词)
- fundamental [,fʌndə´mentl] a.基本的 n.原理 (初中英语单词)
- device [di´vais] n.装置；器具；策略 (初中英语单词)
- crumble [´krʌmbəl] v.弄碎；粉碎；崩溃 (高中英语单词)
- storage [´stɔ:ridʒ] n.贮存；存储器 (高中英语单词)
- tapestry [´tæpistri] n.挂毯 (英语四级单词)
- network [´netwə:k] n.网状物 vt.联播 (英语四级单词)
- virtually [´və:tʃuəli] ad.实际上，实质上 (英语四级单词)
- eventually [i´ventʃuəli] ad.最后，终于 (英语四级单词)
- innovation [,inə´veiʃən] n.改革；革新；创新 (英语六级单词)
文章标签:预测 乔布斯 语录
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