A
mystery buyer
apparently is
holding more than half of the
copper stocks at the London Metal Exchange's warehouses, the latest disclosure of how a single
trader can roil an entire commodities market.
一
That
trader, whom the exchange hasn't identified, owns between 50% and 80% of the 355,750 metric tons held in LME-listed warehouses. This
amounts to more than 177,875 metric tons of
copper, valued at about $1.5
billion. The exchange first disclosed the large position on Nov. 23 in its daily inventory
holder report.
个神秘买家明显持有伦敦金属交易所(LME)仓库超过一半的铜库存,这是单一机构可令整个大宗商品市场动荡不安的最新案例。
'It's an awful lot of
copper; it's an awful lot to finance,' said Charles Swindon, managing
director of RJH Trading Ltd., a London metals-trading house. The
trader's
holding accounts for about 1% of all the
copper the world will
consume this year.
这家机构的身份还没有被LME确认,其拥有LME仓库内355,750吨铜的50%-80%,相当于逾177,875吨铜,价值约15亿美元。该交易所最初于11月23日在其每日库存持有机构报告中透露了这一巨大的头寸。
It is unclear when the
trader started building the position, but market participants have noted some odd market trends that might be linked to the buying.
伦敦金属交易机构RJH Trading Ltd.董事总经理斯温登(Charles Swindon)说,这批铜的数量太大了,要融资的钱太多了。这家机构持有的量大约相当于今年全球铜消费量的1%。
Speculation on the
identity of the
trader runs from some soon-to-
launch exchange-traded funds to an options
trader obligated to deliver a large
amount of the metal.
目前还不清楚这家机构何时开始建立这些现货仓单头寸的,但市场人士注意到,一些奇怪的市场趋势可能与这些买盘相关。
It is
unusual in the
copper market for one
trader to hold such a big supply in exchange warehouses around the world. Copper producers and
consumers typically trade the metal through bilateral contracts, leaving the exchange-listed metal the 'last resort' for those who want to fill orders tied to contracts.
对这家机构身份的猜测各种各样,从一些即将上市的交易所交易基金(ETF)到必须交割大量铜的期权交易商,不一而足。
The LME has certain rules to
discourage anyone from
holding a
dominant position, including forcing the
trader to lend the
copper to the market and limiting the fees the
trader can charge.
在铜市场,一家机构在全球交易所仓库拥有这么大量的现货确实不同寻常。铜生产商和消费者通常通过双边合约进行交易,而只有依照合约必须交割铜的那些人才需要用到现货铜。
The LME is enforcing its lending guidelines, said Stephen White, an exchange spokesman.
LME有某些规定,阻止任何人拥有大量头寸,这些规定包括迫使交易商将铜出借给市场,并限制交易商所收取的费用。
However, there is some evidence that the large position is raising the cost of the metal. Prices rebounded in recent days
despite a stronger U.S. dollar. December
copper futures ended Wednesday 3.2% higher, at $3.9460 a pound, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
LME
发言人怀特(Stephen White)说,该交易所正在加强有关规定的执行。
Meanwhile, the
copper market has moved into a
unique situation called 'backwardation.' Usually, it costs less to buy any
commodity for immediate
delivery than it does to buy a contract that comes due in future months, with the difference reflecting the seller's interim
storage costs. But Tuesday,
copper to be delivered in December traded at an $89-a-metric-ton
premium to metal for
delivery three months out, more than double last week's spread.
但有些迹象显示这大量现货头寸使铜价上涨。尽管美元走强,但最近几天铜价反弹。周三在纽约商品期货交易所(COMEX)12月铜收高3.2%,报每磅3.9460美元。
Analysts are perplexed as to what the
trader would gain from
holding that much
copper. On top of the charges of
storage, insurance and interest for any borrowed capital, the value of the
copper would fall $89 over three months because of backwardation.
与此同时,铜市场进入少有的"逆价差"(backwardation)行情。通常情况下,即期交割商品价格低于未来数月后交割的合同,价差反映了卖家的临时储存费用。但周二,12月铜较三个月后交割的期铜每吨高出89美元,是上周价差的两倍多。
Copper
traders have been bracing for a metal supply
squeeze since October, when three separate companies announced plans for
physical-
copper exchange-traded funds. These funds would let investors trade shares listed on a stock exchange and are backed by metal up to LME specifications.
分析师对于该交易商持有这么多铜将获得什么好处迷惑不解。除了储存费用,还有保险和借贷资本的利息,另外由于存在逆价差,未来三个月铜价将跌至89美元下方。
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s Physical Copper Trust will
launch with 61,800 metric tons, while BlackRock Inc.'s iShares Copper Trust will hold 121,200 metric tons. ETF Securities is also starting a fund, but hasn't specified how much
copper it will hold.
10月以来铜交易商一直在为铜供应紧张作准备,当时三家不同公司宣布推出实物铜ETF的计划。这些基金将让投资者交易在股票交易所上市的股票,这些股票得到符合LME规格的金属的支持。
J.P. Morgan and BlackRock declined to
comment. ETF Securities couldn't be reached to
comment.
比如,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)发行的实物铜信托基金(Physical Copper Trust)将得到61,800吨铜的支持,贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)的iShares Copper Trust将持有121,200吨铜。ETF Securities也开始建立一支基金,但没有说明将持有多少吨铜。
Tatyana Shumsky / Carolyn Cui
摩根大通和贝莱德均拒绝发表评论,另外无法联系到ETF Securities进行置评。