An economic recovery is more marathon than sprint. And that is why the initial surge in corporate profits could leave investors gasping.
经济复苏更多地是一场马拉松，而不是百米短跑。正因为这个原因，当公司利润一开始就出现激增时，投资者可能会累得上气不接下气。
The sharp, early rebound in profits coming out of the recession has been a recovery bright spot. Year-on-year, pretax corporate-profit growth in the U.S. peaked at 42% in the last quarter of 2009. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department is expected to say profits slowed in the third quarter but were still up about 25% from a year ago. By comparison, profits grew only about 5% in the similar period following the 2001 recession.
走出衰退过后不久公司利润就出现大幅反弹，曾是复苏中的一个亮点。2009年第四季度，美国税前公司利润同比增速达到42%的顶点。预计美国商务部会在本周二说，今年第三季度公司利润增长放缓，但较去年同期仍有大约25%的增幅。相比之下，2001年的衰退结束后相似的一段时间里，公司利润的增速只有5%左右。
That all sounds great -- except this rebound has been driven largely by cost savings rather than strong demand.
这一切听上去很不错，只是这次反弹主要是由成本节省措施而不是由强劲的需求推动的。
The U.S. economy grew at about a 3% rate in the first year of the recovery, which technically began in June 2009, and is now settling into an about 2% growth rate.
美国经济技术意义上的复苏始于2009年6月，复苏第一年的增长速度约为3%，目前正在朝着一个约为2%的增长速度稳定下来。
That is roughly half the pace of typical past recoveries. The middling economic outlook makes the recent strength in profits 'inherently less sustainable,' says Ethan Harris, chief North America economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
这差不多是过去一般复苏期间增长速度的一半。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)首席北美经济学家哈里斯(Ethan Harris)说，经济前景一般，使得最近公司利润强劲之势的"可持续性更低"。
That doesn't mean profits are about to collapse. After all, global demand is helping keep some heat in earnings growth. But the pace is likely to slow more than analysts expect, says Barclays Capital portfolio strategist Talley Leger.
这并不意味着利润马上就会大幅下挫。毕竟全球需求的存在有助于利润增长保持一定的热度。但巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)投资策略师莱杰(Talley Leger)说，利润增长速度的减缓可能会超过分析师的预期。
If so, that will squeeze S&P 500 operating margins. After jumping from 6.3% last year to an estimated 8.6% this year, analysts now expect they will hit 9.4% next year -- surpassing their prior 2007 peak.
如果这样，标准普尔500种股票指数(S&P 500)成分股公司的营业利润率就会受到挤压。分析师估计，这些公司今年的利润率估计为8.6%，远高于去年的6.3%，而明年将达到9.4%，超过2007年达到的前一个峰值。
That may prove a tad optimistic. Given slowing productivity growth along with some pressure from other inputs like energy costs, Barclays expects S&P 500 profit margins will increase only slightly next year, to 8.8%.
到头来，这个预测或许显得有些乐观。巴克莱预计，考虑到生产率增速的放缓，再加上能源成本等其他方面的一些压力，标普500公司的利润率明年只会小幅增长至8.8%。
That is no small matter, since profit margins tend to have more influence over earnings per share than changes in revenue growth. In particular, the technology and financial sectors seem most at risk to disappointment, notes Mr. Leger.
这绝非小事，毕竟利润率对每股利润的影响往往超过总收入增长率的变动。莱杰指出，科技和金融股让投资者失望的风险看上去是最大的。
There is a broader risk, too. 'There's a race going on to heal the economy before the next shock hits,' says Bank of America's Mr. Harris.
另外还有一个更大的风险。美银美林的哈里斯说，经济正在赛跑，要赶在下一次冲击到来之前实现复元。
The U.S. can ill afford to see its red-hot corporate sector start to cool its heels now.
如果炽热的企业部门现在就开始踌躇不前，美国可能是承受不起的。
Kelly Evans
- commerce [´kɔmə:s]
n.商业；社交；交流 (初中英语单词) - comparison [kəm´pærisən] n.比较；对照；比喻 (初中英语单词)
- driven [´driv(ə)n] drive 的过去分词 (初中英语单词)
- economy [i´kɔnəmi] n.经济；机制；组织 (初中英语单词)
- pressure [´preʃə] n.压榨 vt.对...施压力 (初中英语单词)
- energy [´enədʒi] n.活力，精力；能力 (初中英语单词)
- slightly [´slaitli] ad.轻微地；细长的 (初中英语单词)
- financial [fi´nænʃəl] a.金融的，财政的 (初中英语单词)
- disappointment [,disə´pɔintmənt] n.失望；挫折 (初中英语单词)
- recovery [ri´kʌvəri] n.重获；获得；恢复 (高中英语单词)
- initial [i´niʃəl] a.最初的 n.首字母 (高中英语单词)
- roughly [´rʌfli] ad.粗糙地；毛糙地 (高中英语单词)
- typical [´tipikəl] a.典型的；象征的 (高中英语单词)
- collapse [kə´læps] vi.&n.崩溃；病倒；衰败 (高中英语单词)
- squeeze [skwi:z] v.&n.压榨，榨取 (高中英语单词)
- revenue [´revinju:] n.税收；收入 (高中英语单词)
- outlook [´autluk] n.眺望；景色；展望 (英语四级单词)
- economist [i´kɔnəmist] n.经济学家；节俭的人 (英语四级单词)
- earnings [´ə:niŋz] n.收益；报酬；获得 (英语六级单词)
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