As the World Cup kicks off Friday in South Africa, there is no responsible analyst or sober-minded statistician who wouldn't concede the following point: England's national soccer team is one of the best it has sent to this tournament in a long time.

Yet Luke Smith, a 28-year-old member of the team's support club, has a different assessment. 'We're on our third captain this year and Rooney looks knackered,' he said -- referring to the team's star striker, Wayne Rooney. 'It's like we're destined to lose out again.'

The World Cup may be the planet's most hotly contested sports championship" target="_blank" title="n.拥护；奋斗；锦标赛">championship, but it's not an event that rewards chest thumping. Since 1930, only five nations have managed to prevail on foreign continents.

In a sport where the ball rarely finds the goal and the events of a millisecond can infect a nation for decades, the first question that occupies fans isn't how their team can win, but which of its weaknesses is most likely to prove fatal. The more you know about the World Cup, the more pessimistic you become.

David Goldblatt, the author of 'The Ball is Round: a Global History of Football,' calls the tournament 'manifestly and regularly unjust.' As a result, he said, 'Football culture is better at finding problems than solutions -- reasons not to believe than to believe.'

Brazil has won a record five World Cups and reached seven finals. And by many accounts, Brazil is favored to win again.

Yet most Brazilians believe past success is precisely the reason to expect failure. In the noisy 25 de Marco shopping district in downtown Sao Paulo, pre-tournamentanxiety is palpable this week among shoppers and sales clerks crowding the bins of clown-sized yellow glasses frames, plastic horns and T-shirts.

Rogerio Junqueira, who was looking to pick up some collectable national team stickers for his son, worries that the big salaries Brazilian players earn these days playing in European leagues have undermined their will to play with heart for the national team. 'When you look back, we had players who left their blood on the field,' Mr. Junqueira said. 'Now, they're likely to ask 'How many millions of dollars will I get if I leave some blood on the field?' No, I'm not confident this year.'

Some Brazilian insecurity may sound irrational. 'My problem this year is that Brazil will have one of the best defenses in the world. That doesn't make me feel good,' said Joao de Matos, a Brazilian who runs two Brazilian restaurants in New York. The problem is, Brazil has always been known for its offense. Yet lately, it struggled to score in World Cup qualifying and at one point was trailing 2-0 to the U.S. (gasp!) in the Confederations Cup final before roaring back to win. 'We haven't been scoring a lot,' said Eloa da Silva, a Brazilian living in Florida.

If any country should feel confident, it's Italy -- the reigning World Cup champion. But its fans are no more optimistic than they were four years ago. The team is largely the same, after all -- which makes the players four years older.

'I don't think I've ever felt so pessimistic about their chances,' says Massimo Cusano, a 27-year-old office manager in Vancouver and former Florence resident whose parents are from Italy. Expressing a common concern, Mr. Cusano says Coach Marcello Lippi is relying too heavily on older players. At an average age of 28.73, Italy's roster is the fifth-oldest of the 32 World Cup teams. 'He was simply much too arrogant when he selected the squad,' Mr. Cusano says.

Argentina's ample national pride may suggest its fans think they're destined to win, but their fatalistic minds tell them they won't, mainly because of the one-man telenovela coaching the team, former star Diego Maradona.

A recovering cocaine addict, Mr. Maradona has promised to do a striptease in downtown Buenos Aires if Argentina wins, but it seems probable that 'El Diego' will be exposed long before then by his volcanicpersonality, hostile dealings with the media and odd tactical notions.

'There's no doubt he knew how to play like a champion,' says Luis Rinaldi, a fan following the sportscasts from South Africa in a sky-blue-and-white-draped Buenos Aires cafe. 'Still, you look at this team sometimes and shake your head and ask, 'What kind of coach have we put in charge here?' It is definitely a test of our faith in Diego.'

Even when Argentina succeeds, there first comes agony. Veronica Chiatellino, a 30-year-old Buenos Aires native who now lives in Barcelona, remembers how the 1986 team barely got into the World Cup. It needed a goal with nine minutes left in its last qualification game against Peru just to clinch a spot. Then it won the whole tournament. 'We have to suffer to be champions. It's in our blood,' says Ms. Chiatellino, who is at the World Cup.

Ground zero for dread this year is England. The nation that invented soccer has won its top prize only once, 44 years ago. In the past, England has lost matches to such soccer weaklings as the Soviet Union and the U.S., and has also been knocked out by stalwarts like Portugal, Argentina and Brazil.

Its particular nemesis is Germany, which has twice eliminated England from the World Cup and has inflicted many other humiliations in European tournaments. To Englishman Brian Larkin and millions of his countrymen, there is dark comfort in expecting more of the same. No matter what the circumstances, he says, England's story at the World Cup is always the same. 'Twenty-two men running around a field kicking a bag of air,' Mr. Larkin said. 'Then Germany wins on penalties.'

Feeding British pessimism this year: John Terry lost his captain's armband when news broke he'd had an affair with a teammate's girlfriend. A spate of injuries has hobbled the team. Coach Fabio Capello, an Italian, made some controversial decisions about who did and didn't make the side. Even the team itself isn't bursting with confidence.

Upon his arrival in South Africa, England's Mr. Terry said, 'with [the conditions] on our side and the quality in our squad and a little bit of luck, who knows?'

In Mexico, which opens the World Cup on Friday against South Africa, there is widespread concern about height -- or the lack of it.