What do the
disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the European
sovereign-debt
crisis have in common?
西哥湾石油泄漏之灾与欧洲主权债务危机有何共同之处?
Quite a bit, it turns out.
结果证明,确有些共同之处。
I don't directly own shares in BP or any European
financial institutions, and I've been avoiding both while following the depressing news about the environmental
disaster in the Gulf and the latest permutations of the European debt
crisis, which last week segued to Hungary.
我并不直接持有英国石油公司(BP)或任何欧洲金融机构的股票,在墨西哥湾环境灾难及欧洲债务危机最新动态等令人不安的消息传出之后,我一直避免持有这两类股票。上周,欧洲债务危机在匈牙利继续上演。
No doubt plenty of investors are 'playing' the oil spill by speculating in BP shares. I just don't have the
appetite for it. Even if I could make a strong case for the stock and turned out to be right, I'd take scant
satisfaction from making money from this kind of
disaster. While some will no doubt label this
sentiment misguided, it's my
investment, and I want to feel good about it.
毫无疑问,大量投资者正通过在英国石油公司的股票上进行投机以从石油泄漏的灾难中"渔利"。我只是对此不感兴趣。即使我能准确预测股市,从此类灾难中获利也难让我有满足感。尽管一些人无疑会说这种观点是不明智的,但这是我的投资,我想行得正,坐得端。
I've been avoiding European bank stocks for another reason: Who knows where the
exposure to shaky
sovereign debt really lies? Until Europe follows the U.S. lead and imposes credible
stress tests on its banks, I don't feel comfortable owning European bank stocks.
我一直避免持有欧洲银行股还有另一个原因。谁知道它们对脆弱的主权债务的风险敞口究竟有多大?在欧洲按照美国的作法对其银行进行可信的压力测试之前,我无法安心持有欧洲银行股。
Nonetheless, the sharp decline of the euro and the
plunge in many European stock prices last week got me thinking that there may well be some bargains to be found among Old World companies, especially major exporters that can take
advantage of the weak euro.
虽然如此,欧元的大幅下跌及上周诸多欧洲股票的大幅跳水让我觉得或许在欧洲的公司中真能发现一些价值洼地,特别是那些能从欧元贬值中获利的大型出口商。
I do own a broad-based European exchange-traded fund -- the BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fund -- which has dropped recently in line with European markets. I bought it for broad-based
exposure to developed Europe, part of what I consider a
prudent diversification
strategy. I'd never really examined the
actual securities in the fund, so I
decided to see just what was in it.
我的确持有BLDRS欧洲100 ADR 指数基金(BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fund)。这支涵盖范围广泛的交易所交易基金(ETF)近期随欧洲股市一同下跌。我购买这支基金是因为它对发达的欧洲经济有着广泛的风险敞口,在一定程度上我认为这是谨慎的分散投资策略。我从未真正检查过这支基金实际持有的股票,因此我决定看看到底包括什么。
You can imagine my
dismay when I discovered that its biggest
holding is a European bank -- HSBC Holdings -- and its second biggest is BP. Spain's Banco Santander is also in its top 10
holdings, and
financial companies make up 21% of the portfolio. So much for my
illusion that I owned no BP or European banks.
当我发现它最大的重仓股是一家欧洲银行──汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings PLC),而第二大重仓股是英国石油公司时,你能想像得出我有多惊愕。西班牙国家银行(Banco Santander)也是其排名前10位的重仓股,而且金融公司占其投资组合的21%。我自以为未持有英国石油公司或欧洲银行的股票,其实是个错觉。
I see no point in selling the fund now, with BP shares already so
beaten down that the company is being discussed as a takeover
candidate. But I don't want to add to it either, given my interest in exporters rather than banks and
energy companies.
现在英国石油公司的股票跌幅已经如此巨大,以至于人们已经在谈论它有可能被接管,我不认为我现在应当赎回这支基金。但鉴于我感兴趣的是出口商而非银行和能源公司,我也不想再增持。
But when I looked at broad-based European alternatives, I discovered that they all had big positions in BP and European banks. This isn't
surprising, since they all track various European indexes in which large oil companies like BP and large banks like HSBC are heavily represented.
但当我寻找其它的全面型欧洲基金时,我发现它们均重仓持有英国石油公司和欧洲银行的股票。这不奇怪,因为它们均跟踪各种欧洲指数,而英国石油公司等大型石油公司以及汇丰控股等大型银行均是这些指数中的权重股。
Next I turned to
mutual funds, but there, too, it's hard to find one that doesn't own major
financial institutions or BP. For example, the popular Fidelity Europe Fund's top three
holdings (as of March 31) were Royal Dutch Shell, HSBC and BP, in that order. I did find two funds that seem to meet my criteria: the Invesco European Growth Fund and the Mutual European Fund.
然后我又开始查看共同基金,但也难发现一支不持有大型金融机构或英国石油公司股票的共同基金。例如,截至3月31日,广受欢迎的富达欧洲基金(Fidelity Europe Fund)的三大重仓股依次分别是荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell)、汇丰控股和英国石油公司。我的确发现了两支似乎符合我的标准的基金:Invesco欧洲增长基金(Invesco European Growth Fund)和欧洲共同基金(Mutual European Fund)。
The Invesco fund reported just over 10% in
energy shares and less than 10% in
financials (as of March 31), and BP wasn't listed among its top 25
holdings. But the fund is weighted toward the U.K., with nearly 35% of its assets in U.K. stocks. Its recent
performance has been
relatively strong, but it has a high expense ratio.
截至3月31日,Invesco基金报告能源股占比略高于10%,金融股略低于10%,前25大重仓股中并无英国石油公司的身影。但这支基金侧重于英国,近35%的资产投资于英国股市。它近期的业绩相对强劲,但费率较高。
The Mutual European fund is more geographically balanced and has less than 10% of its assets in
energy shares. BP isn't listed among the top 25
holdings. But Mutual has 20% of its assets in
financial services, with BNP Paribas and UBS among its top
holdings. Mutual has generally ranked among the top funds in its
category, which may justify its high fee structure.
欧洲共同基金在地域方面比较均衡,能源股资产占比不足10%,前25大重仓股中也没有英国石油公司。但这支基金的金融股占比高达20%,法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)和瑞士银行(UBS)均是其重仓股。欧洲共同基金在同类基金的排名通常靠前,因此费率很高。
The best bet for my
strategy may well be a Germany ETF. The iShares MSCI Germany Index ETF is filled with big exporters like Siemens (10% of the portfolio), SAP and ThyssenKrupp. It does
contain Deutsche Bank (5% of the portfolio) but no
energy companies among its top 25 positions.
符合我策略的最佳选择或许是一支德国的ETF──iShares MSCI德国指数ETF(iShares MSCI Germany Index ETF)。这支基金涵盖了大量的大型出口商,例如西门子(占比达10%)、软件公司SAP和钢铁公司蒂森克虏伯(ThyssenKrupp)。它也持有德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的股票(在投资组合中的占比为5%),但前25大重仓股中并无能源公司。
The simple lesson in this exercise is to look at the portfolios of your
mutual funds and ETFs. They do offer diversification -- but also some unwanted major
holdings.
此次我得到的教训很简单:查看你的共同基金和ETF的投资组合。他们的确秉持分散投资的策略,但部分主要重仓股却并非如你所愿。