India's real-
estate investors can breathe a sigh of
relief. The country's central bank on Tuesday held off making moves that could cool the country's rising property market.
度的房地产投资者可以松一口气了。该国央行周二推迟采取可能会冷却该国不断上涨的房地产市场的措施。
They won't always be so lucky.
但地产投资者不会总这么幸运。
After a short-lived
correction, real-
estate prices in India are approaching pre
crisis highs. In one of Mumbai's main business districts,
commercial property prices have more than doubled from recent lows, data from
research firm Liases Foras show.
印度的房地产价格,在经过短调后,目前正逼近危机前高位。研究公司Liases Foras的数据显示,在孟买一个主要商业区,商业地产的价格已从近期低点翻了一倍还多。
Meanwhile, prices of high-end residences in Mumbai and New Delhi should hit old highs this year, says Knight Frank, a real-
estate consulting firm.
而在一家房地产咨询公司工作的弗兰克(Knight Frank)认为,孟买及新德里高端住宅价格今年应会重上以往高点。
Credit for the rebound goes to low interest rates, of course. Also helping are measures put in place during the credit crunch, like letting banks double the period before which an unpaid loan to a
builder would be considered in default, easing
pressure on developers and lenders alike.
当然,房地产业反弹应归功于低利率,同时,信贷紧缩期间措施采取得当也有所助益,如建筑商到期未偿还贷款应视为违约前,由银行将其还款期限延长一倍,减轻开发商及此类贷款人的压力等。
Certainly interest-rate increases will
partly work against this. The Reserve Bank of India raised rates by a quarter point on Tuesday.
当然,加息将对此产生部分不利影响。印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)于周二加息0.25点。
But investors also were expecting the bank to start unwinding past moves aimed specifically at real
estate. For example, banks currently have to place in reserve only 1% of a real-
estate loan's value. Before the credit crunch, they were putting 2% aside.
但投资者也预计银行将开始回收以往特别指向房地产的措施。如,银行目前对房地产贷款仅提取1%的拨备,而在信贷紧缩前,银行提取2%。
In that sense, no news Tuesday was taken as good news by investors. Real-
estate stocks jumped as much as 3.6% Tuesday, far outpacing the advance of the broader market.
从这种意义上来看,周二并无投资者视为利好的消息。周二房地产股价格跃升3.6%,涨幅远超市场平均幅度。
One reason for the central bank to hold off: Even as prices rise, the
volume of sales is still low. Liases Foras data show
builders in Mumbai are selling just a sixth of their inventory.
印度央行推迟采取行动的一个原因是,即便房价在上涨,但房地产交易量仍持低。研究公司Liases Foras的数据显示,孟买的建筑商目前卖出的房屋,仅占其库存数的六分之一。
The central bank has maintained that changes to provisioning requirements and grace periods were a
crisis response.
印度央行仍然认为,拨备标准变更及还贷宽限期是危机应对措施。
Plus, the Reserve Bank of India is more likely to be guided by its
well-known concern over risk in the
banking sector. India's banks have
sharply increased their
exposure to real
estate.
此外,印度央行采取措施更可能以其众所周知的银行业风险担忧为指导。印度银行业的房地产贷款增幅巨大。
At the end of February, a total of $20.5
billion in real-
estate-related loans were
outstanding in India, compared with $9.8
billion in February 2007.
至2月末,印度已发放在外的房地产业相关贷款总计达205亿美元,而在2007年2月,仅为98亿美元。
With the real-
estate market returning to its pre-
crisis form, it is only a matter of time before these policies do, too. Tuesday's jubilation could be short-lived.
随着房地产市场转向危机前的格局,采取冷却政策也只是个时间问题。周二投资者的欢庆可能为时不长。