亲爱的经济学家：

Dear Economist,

我是一个刚刚离休的资深政治人物。我一直相信，自己可以给某个大公司当几年顾问，贴补一下少得可怜的退休金。虽然我不懂业务，但我的关系网有着不可衡量的价值。

I am a senior political figure who has just left office. I always believed that I could make up for years of badly paid public service by advising a major company for a fat retainer. I know nothing about business, yet my network of contacts would be invaluable.

但是，有人刚给我看了一种叫"Facebook"的东西，他们说，许多刚毕业的大学生都用这个。他们告诉我，我的"关系网"的经济价值已经不如从前了。这是怎么了？

But somebody has just shown me a thing called "Facebook", which they say is being used by lots of new graduates. I have been told that the economic value of my "network" is not what it was. What is going on?

读者：T.B.

Yours, T.B.



亲爱的T.B.：

Dear T.B.,

网络泡沫破裂的时候，也许你正忙着思考国际事务？

Perhaps you were busy contemplating international affairs when the dot-com bubble burst?

你所想的，似乎是一种过于简单化的网络模式，在这种模式下，规模大小就是决定因素。一台传真机什么都做不了，两台就可以互相通话了。由于每台新机器都可以连接到整个网络上，所以每台新机器增加的价值都比上一台机器多。这个道理也适用于手机、eBay和Facebook：规模大小增加一倍，增值却超过一倍。所以，风险资本家会拿大笔资金培植大型网络，不论关系交情有多浅。

You seem to be thinking of a simplistic model of networks, in which size is everything. One fax machine can do nothing, two can talk to each other, and because each new machine can connect to the entire network, each new machine adds more value than the last. Ditto for mobile phones, eBay and Facebook: twice as big is much more than twice as valuable. Venture capitalists therefore pay big bucks for large networks, no matter how shallow.

然而，这种简单的算法忽略了一种抵消效应：边际收益递减。第一批手机用来进行好几百万美元的交易。今天，多加一部手机只不过多了一个教室短信的来源。很多在Facebook上注册的人很快就会发现，他们根本用不上它。

Yet this simple arithmetic ignores an offsetting effect: diminishing marginal returns. The first mobile phones were used to conduct multi-million-dollar deals. One more mobile phone today is one more source of classroom text messages. Many people who sign up to Facebook quickly find they have no use for it.

所以，不要因为你的关系网比你儿子在Facebook上的朋友列表规模小而沮丧。他也许能跟别人分享U2乐队的最新单曲，你却有波诺(Bono)的电话号码。把这种联系转化成金钱应该不成问题。你可别把自己的退休休闲时光浪费在Facebook上。

So do not despair that your network is smaller than your son's list of Facebook friends. He may share the latest U2 single, but you have Bono's phone number. There should be no trouble monetising that sort of access. Don't fritter away your retirementleisure on Facebook.
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