When Meg Ryan and Antonio Banderas signed up to star in an independently produced comedy-action movie called 'My Mom's New Boyfriend,' the film's backers figured they had a slam dunk -- a modestly priced film with bankable stars that would surge at the box office.

The producers say the $17 million movie scored well in test screenings in the U.S. this spring and did decent business in Spain, Israel and Russia. But the U.S. distributor, Sony Corp.'s Sony Pictures, quietly sent the movie straight to DVD on June 17. 'I believe that three years ago this movie absolutely would have been on screens, if for no other reason than the actors involved,' says George Gallo, who wrote and directed the film.

These days, scores of films such as 'Boyfriend' are finding there's no room at the multiplex. The reason: Hollywood is flush with roughly $13 billion to $18 billion in financing for movies that poured in over the past few years, according to bankers and producers, vastly expanding the number of pictures getting made. The flood of money is paying for films made by both relative newcomers and veteran film investors and producers.

That dynamic has turned movie distribution into a free-for-all, with too many films vying for too few slots in theaters each weekend. Last year, more than 600 feature films -- mostly independent movies not produced at a major studio -- were released theatrically in the U.S., up from 466 in 2002, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. That's an average of 2.6 more movies every weekend that are battling for the public's attention.

But those figures are just for the films that make it to the silver screen. Many more films, such as 'Boyfriend,' with big-name actors or directors never make it to theaters. More than 3,600 feature films were submitted for consideration at Sundance Film Festival this year, and while many of those are tiny digital flicks that never have a chance of commercial release, the number is up from about 2,000 feature submissions just five years ago.

The frothy marketplace means more choices for movie fans, and more headaches for a struggling industry. In 2007, domestic box-office revenue totaled $9.68 billion, up from $9.3 billion in 2006, according to box-office tracker Media by Numbers. Box-office revenue has grown since 2005 because of higher ticket prices, but attendance started dropping last year. This year, attendance is down 4.74% from the same time a year ago. Lower attendance should trim box-office revenues for 2008 to around $9.6 billion, Media by Numbers projects.

Today, the credit crunch is putting the brakes on outside film financing. But Hollywood executives fear the glut created by the recent spate of overproduction is going to be felt for at least a couple more years. Some people say the worst of the oversupply problem is still about a year away.

'We're at the top of the curve heading down,' says Hal Sadoff, head of international and independent film at ICM, one of the major talent agencies in Hollywood. 'We've seen many of these financial institutions, private-equity firms and hedge funds pull away from the industry. But the films that they have advanced are still in production, and it will take another six to 12 months for the market to regularize again.'

Amir Malin, who acquired, marketed and distributed the hit indie film 'The Blair Witch Project' and now runs media-investment firm Qualia Capital, says that the market for such films will get tougher before it gets easier. 'The worst is yet to come,' he says.

The havoc in the movie business was evident in April, when the release schedule was packed with a bevy of big-star vehicles hoping to beat the onslaught of summer blockbusters. 'Leatherheads,' a $60 million football comedy starring George Clooney and co-financed by Universal Pictures and Relativity Media, took in just $31 million domestically and about $9 million overseas. The Al Pacino thriller '88 Minutes,' financed for $26 million by Millennium Pictures and released by Sony Pictures, took in just $17 million or so at the U.S. box office.

And then there was 'Smart People,' starring Sarah Jessica Parker, Dennis Quaid and Ellen Page. The star-packed comedy about a dysfunctional family seemed promising, especially given its modest cost of $8 million. Its backers, including Bill Block, who runs a financing outlet called QED International, expected the movie to make about $20 million. 'It was a terrific cast and everybody loved the script, so we thought, 'Why not?'' says Mr. Block. But the film grossed less than half of that, making $9.5 million in domestic theaters. 'I think it's just tough out there right now -- especially for the upscale adult picture,' Mr. Block adds.

The competition is especially brutal in the market for small movies. Oscar-aspiring independent films -- that is, films not produced at a major studio -- were once seen as the most attractive segment of the movie industry. That's because sizable profits could be made on films that required relatively little investment. That calculus prompted all of the major Hollywood studios to launch divisions aimed at exploiting the market.

But the flood of indie films has driven up marketing costs, as each film spends more to compete. Last year, top-flight casts didn't prevent movies such as 'In the Valley of Elah' and 'Things We Lost in the Fire' from getting drubbed at the domestic box office. This year, a huge roster of titles, big and small, will compete for audiences, including 'Changeling,' starring Angelina Jolie and directed by Clint Eastwood; 'Burn After Reading,' a Coen brothers film with Brad Pitt, George Clooney and John Malkovich; and 'Milk,' a Gus Van Sant picture about Harvey Milk, a pioneering gay politician in San Francisco.

To avoid collisions, studios are rapidly scaling back the number of films they're releasing, particularly smaller specialty movies. Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. closed two of its art-house labels, Picturehouse and Warner Independent Pictures, this spring. In June, Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures basically absorbed the majority of the staff at its specialty label, Paramount Vantage, into its main studio, cutting about 50 employees. News Corp.'s Fox Searchlight, which has had big indie hits with 'Juno' and 'Little Miss Sunshine,' has only six titles scheduled for release so far this year. (News Corp. also owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal.)

Indie films aren't going away, of course. But some studios have concluded that the most-expensive films -- blockbusters such as 'Iron Man' and 'The Dark Knight,' which often cost well over $150 million each, not counting millions more in marketing outlays -- can be less risky than art-house releases such as last year's 'A Mighty Heart.' That film lost about $15 million for its backer, Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Vantage.

Studios aren't the only ones pulling back; so are many of the individual producers who armed themselves with easily raised moviemaking funds. Producer Sidney Kimmel announced this year that his production company, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment, would scale back its releases to two films a year from five. Mr. Kimmel was hit hard when his most-recent picture, 'Synecdoche, New York,' starring Philip Seymour Hoffman, failed to find a distributor at the Cannes Film Festival this spring. In late July, Sony Pictures Classics bought the film, just giving its backers a portion of the revenues. Even with that, the film's backers will likely take a loss on the movie, which cost about $20 million. Executives at Kimmel Entertainment, however, say they recouped a substantial part of the film's cost by selling off the international rights.

Film-financing outlets are also moving toward larger projects. Grosvenor Park has financed more than 400 film and television productions over the past 20 years. Donald Starr, chairman, says he lent money against the foreign sales for 'Powder Blue,' a small picture costing just under $10 million featuring starlet Jessica Biel that finished filming last September and is beginning to look for a U.S. distributor. Mr. Starr estimates that Ross Dinerstein, the 29-year-old producer and one of the main financiers of 'Powder Blue,' could lose about $7 million on the movie.

'The amount of sales that these films generate is just too small to be worth it,' Mr. Starr says. 'In any other business, if something doesn't make back its price, you stop making it. But for some reason in the film industry we keep making more of these movies.' But Mr. Dinerstein says he won't lose money on the film. 'Our initial goal is to break even and anything after that is icing on the cake,' he says.

Major film distributors are being far more cautious in acquiring independently financed films for distribution, a situation that has dramatically slowed business at major film gatherings such as Sundance in January and Cannes in May. At Cannes this year, there was very little buying, with distributors shunning films such as Steven Soderbergh's 'Che,' starring Benicio Del Toro.

At Sundance, highly anticipated films drew few bites from buyers. John Sloss, a veteran entertainment lawyer who brought 19 films to Sundance this year, says he only sold five by the time the festival finished.

Another factor in the pullback is a rise in marketing costs. A decade ago, campaigns for independent movies were driven by free publicity and word of mouth. The crowded market is prompting distributors to spend big to distinguish themselves. According to the MPAA, the amount of money the indie labels at the major studios were spending on marketing shot up 44% to $25.7 million in 2007 from $17.8 million in 2006. Since 2002, that marketing spending has doubled, driving up competition for all films trying to gain traction in the marketplace.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

September 02, 2008 23:08 ET (03:08 GMT)

WSJ(9/3) Glut Of Films Hits Hollywood -2-

The rising costs are preventing some smaller movies from reaching much of an audience. Avi Lerner, who produced 'My Mom's New Boyfriend' along with scores of theatrical and direct-to-DVD movies, says higher costs have created insurmountable obstacles for his films in recent years. 'Obviously, the main problem is that big studios have unlimited money to pay for [marketing] and nobody can compete with that,' he says. 'Even if you spend $10 million to $15 million on marketing -- which used to be enough in the past -- in today's market that's nothing against $70 million-plus that the studios can spend on their big movies.'

Many of the specialty labels at major studios passed on distributing director Sidney Lumet's film, 'Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.' So, the producers chose to release it with THINKFilm, a small distributor that has struggled financially in recent months. THINKFilm opened the movie last fall with a 'platform release' -- starting with two screens and expanding over time to about 320 theaters. Producers Michael Cerenzie and Brian Linse were hard-pressed to find financing for the movie when one of their equity investors dropped out; at one point, Mr. Linse had to borrow $180,000 against the equity in his Hollywood Hills house. In the end, Capitol Films, a company owned by THINKFilm's parent, paid for the $18 million picture.

'Financing this movie was a real struggle,' says Mr. Linse. 'It's hard for people to imagine since we had actors like Ethan Hawke and Philip Seymour Hoffman, but it was really tough.'

The film, which also starred Marisa Tomei, grossed a little more than $7 million at the domestic box office. That's partially because THINKFilm spent less than $1 million in advertising on the movie, so despite strong reviews, it got lost in a crowd of pictures that opened during Oscar season.

Yet it is increasingly common to see critical darlings of the festival circuit get trampled. 'Son of Rambow,' a coming-of-age comedy about two boys in England who dream of filmmaking, was a darling at Sundance in 2007, where it was reportedly sold for distribution for about $7.5 million -- one of the largest buys at the festival that year.

Vantage released the film in May 2008 to top-notch reviews. But it flopped, grossing just $1.78 million. The film was put out via a platform release on the same day that Paramount's 'Iron Man' hit theaters in early May. While 'Rambow' added screens through May, it never gained traction in a month that was chock-full of blockbusters, from 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' to 'Sex and the City.'

''Son of Rambow' is the poster child for a movie that would have worked five years ago but fails in today's marketplace,' says Mark Gill, a veteran film executive who isn't affiliated with the movie. 'It got great reviews, audiences really liked it, it was well-marketed. It had everything going for it, and yet it didn't work, because there is such a glut of movies and a mass of clutter right now that nothing can break out in this climate.'

当梅格.瑞安(Meg Ryan)和安东尼奥.班德拉斯( Antonio Banderas)同意出演独立制作的动作喜剧片《妈妈的新男友》(My Mom's New Boyfriend)时，该片的投资人本以为胜券在握──一部成本不高的电影加上拥有号召力的明星在票房上必将乘风破浪。

该片的制片人表示，这部投资1,700万美元的影片在美国今年春季的试映中反响良好，在西班牙、以色列和俄罗斯市场也取得了佳绩。不过该片的美国发行商索尼公司(Sony Corp.)旗下的Sony Pictures却悄悄地在6月17日直接发行了这部电影的DVD。该片编剧兼导演乔治•加洛(George Gallo)说，"我相信，如果是在三年前，这部电影仅仅凭借片中的几位演员也足以登上大荧幕了。"

如今，许多像《妈妈的新男友》这样的影片却在影院里找不到立足之地。原因是，好莱坞充斥着过去几年涌入的价值约130亿至180亿美元的电影投资，银行家和制片人透露说，这大大增加了影片的制作数量。这些涌入的资金既用来扶持影坛新人、也被经验丰富的投资人和制片人用来制作电影。

这股潮流将电影发行变成了一个群雄逐鹿的市场──有太多的电影在争夺着每周末影院里极为有限的放映场次。美国电影协会(Motion Picture Association of America)的数据显示，去年有600余部长片──大多数属于并非出自大型影业公司的独立电影──在美国院线上映，超过了2002年的466部。这相当于平均每周末多出了2.6部电影争夺公众的眼球。

而且，这些数字仅仅包括那些最终走上大荧幕的电影。许多拥有知名演员或导演的电影，比如这部《妈妈的新男友》，都没能进入院线。今年共有3,600余部故事片报名参加圣丹斯电影节(Sundance Film Festival)，尽管其中许多影片属于根本没有机会进行商业发行的小型数字电影，但这还是高出了5年前约2,000部故事片的报名数字。

活跃的电影市场意味着影迷有了更多的选择，也意味着这个举步维艰的行业面临着更多的麻烦。票房跟踪机构Media by Numbers表示，2007年，美国的国内票房收入总计为96.8亿美元，高于2006年的93亿美元。由于电影票价上涨，自2005年起票房收入持续增长，不过影院的上座率从去年开始出现了下降。而在今年，上座率比去年同期又下降了4.74%。Media by Numbers预计，2008年的票房收入将受上座率降低的拖累徘徊在96亿美元左右。

眼下，信贷紧缩正在挤压着电影产业的外部融资空间。不过，好莱坞高层人士担心，最近几年电影多产带来的供应过剩问题在未来几年内还将继续存在。还有人说，超量供应带来的最严重后果还需要大约一年的时间才会浮出水面。

好莱坞最大的经纪公司之一ICM国际和独立电影部门的负责人哈尔•萨多夫(Hal Sadoff)说，"我们正处在下坡路的起点。我们看到许多金融机构、私人股权投资公司和对冲基金都离开了这个行业。不过，他们启动的那些电影仍处在制作阶段，还要等上半年到一年的时间市场秩序才能再次恢复。"

埃米尔•玛林(Amir Malin)曾经购买、推广并发行了热门的独立电影《女巫布莱尔》(The Blair Witch Project)，他现在经营着媒体投资公司Qualia Capital。他说，独立电影市场在好转前将出现恶化，"最糟糕的时刻还没有到来。"

电影行业的动荡局面在今年4月就已经显而易见了，当时的上映时间表上充斥着许多由大明星出演、希望在夏季大片登陆前抢滩的电影。由乔治•克鲁尼(George Clooney)主演、耗资6,000万美元的橄榄球喜剧《傻瓜》(Leatherheads)在美国国内仅取得了3,100万美元的票房成绩，其海外票房约为900万美元。《傻瓜》由环球影业(Universal Pictures)和Relativity Media共同投资。阿尔•帕西诺(Al Pacino)主演的惊悚片《88分钟》(88 Minutes)在美国仅有约1,700万美元入账。该片由Millennium Pictures投资2,600万美元制作、由Sony Pictures发行。

此外，还有聚焦不健全家庭的喜剧片《聪明人》(Smart People)。汇集了萨拉•杰西卡•帕克(Sarah Jessica Parker)、丹尼斯•奎德( Dennis Quaid)和埃伦•佩奇(Ellen Page)等诸多明星的《聪明人》似乎前景一片大好，尤其是该片成本仅为800万美元。该片的投资者们，包括比尔•布洛克(Bill Block)──布洛克经营着一家名为QED International的投资机构──预计该片能够取得约2,000万美元的票房收入。"这部电影阵容强大，剧本人人喜爱，因此我们想'为什么不呢？'"布洛克说。不过，《聪明人》的票房还不及预期的一半，在美国国内院线仅拿下了950万美元。"我想眼下的市场确实很艰难──对于高层次的成人电影市场来说尤为如此，"布洛克补充说。

这场竞争对小制作电影市场显得尤为残酷。深受奥斯卡(Oscar)奖青睐的独立电影──也就是那些不是由大型影业公司制作的影片──曾被视为电影行业里最具吸引力的领域，因为尽管投资相对很少，但这些电影却能获得可观的利润。这种想法促使好莱坞各大电影公司纷纷创立了意在开拓这一领域的分支机构。

然而，独立电影的热潮却推高了营销成本，原因在于每部电影为了取得竞争优势都投入了更多的资金。去年，一线明星并没能让《决战以拉谷》(In the Valley of Elah)和《往事如烟》( Things We Lost in the Fire)这样的影片躲过美国国内票房惨败的命运。今年，将有更多的影片展开争夺：包括由安吉丽娜•茱丽(Angelina Jolie)主演、克林特•伊斯特伍德(Clint Eastwood)导演的《调包婴儿》(Changeling)；科恩(Coen)兄弟执导、布拉德•皮特(Brad Pitt)、乔治•克鲁尼和约翰•马尔科维奇(John Malkovich)主演的《阅后即焚》(Burn After Reading)；以及加斯•范•桑特(Gus Van Sant)执导、讲述旧金山同性恋政客哈维•米尔克(Harvey Milk)故事的《米尔克》(Milk)。

为了避免正面冲突，影业公司正在迅速缩减发行的影片数量，尤其是那些小制作的特色影片。时代华纳公司(Time Warner Inc.)旗下的华纳兄弟(Warner Bros.)今年春季关闭了两家艺术电影制片公司Picturehouse和Warner Independent Pictures。今年6月，维亚康姆(Viacom Inc.)旗下的派拉蒙影业(Paramount Pictures)基本上将旗下特色电影部门Paramount Vantage的大部分员工吸收进了派拉蒙，并裁减了约50名雇员。新闻集团(News Corp.)旗下的Fox Searchlight曾制作了《朱诺》(Juno)和《阳光小美女》(Little Miss Sunshine)这样的热门独立影片，而今年迄今为止，该公司只将六部电影列入了发行计划。（新闻集团还拥有《华尔街日报》的出版商道琼斯公司(Dow Jones & Co.)。）

当然，独立电影并没有离开人们的视野。不过，有些影业公司得出结论说，制作费用最高昂的电影──比如《钢铁人》(Iron Man)和《蝙蝠侠：黑暗骑士》(The Dark Knight)这样每部成本通常远远超过1.5亿美元的大片，其中还不包括用于营销的数百万美元──可能比艺术片公司出品的影片风险更小。举例来说，独立影片《坚强的心》(A Mighty Heart) 去年令其投资公司维亚康姆旗下的Paramount Vantage损失了1,500万美元。

从独立电影市场抽身而退的不仅仅是影业公司，还有许多拥有资金筹措渠道的独立制片人。制片人悉尼•金梅尔(Sidney Kimmel)今年宣布，他的制片公司Sidney Kimmel Entertainment将把每年发行的影片数量从五部减少到两部。金梅尔最近遭受了沉重打击：他新近制作的由菲利普•西摩•霍夫曼(Philip Seymour Hoffman)主演的《纽约提喻》(Synecdoche, New York)没能在今年春季的戛纳电影节(Cannes Film Festival)上找到发行商。7月下旬，Sony Pictures Classics购买了该片，只将收入的一部分给予投资人。即便如此，该片投资者仍可能难以收回该片约2,000万美元的投资。不过，Kimmel Entertainment的管理人士称，他们通过出售国际版权已经收回了大部分成本。

电影投资机构还在着手推动更大的项目。Grosvenor Park在过去20年投资了400多部电影和电视节目。该公司董事长唐纳德•斯塔尔(Donald Starr)说，他没有为《蓝色粉末》(Powder Blue)的海外销售投资。去年九月完成拍摄的《蓝色粉末》是一部成本不足1,000万美元的小制作，由新星杰西卡.贝尔(Jessica Biel)主演，该片已经开始在美国寻找发行商。斯塔尔预计， 29岁的罗斯•迪纳斯坦(Ross Dinerstein)有可能因为这部电影损失约700万美元。他是该片的制片人、也是《蓝色粉末》的主要出资人之一。

斯塔尔说，"这类影片创造的票房难以抵消成本。在其它商业领域，如果不能收回成本，那么你就停止生产了。不过在电影行业，由于某些原因，我们仍在制作着更多的此类电影。"但迪纳斯坦表示，这部电影不会让他赔钱。他说，"我们最初的目标是收支平衡，接下来就是额外的收获了"

主要的电影发行商在购买独立投资电影的发行权时要谨慎得多，结果在1月的圣丹斯电影节和5月的戛纳电影节这样的大型电影界聚会上，这一局面令电影交易进展缓慢。今年的戛纳电影节上买家很少，发行商对由史蒂文•索德伯格(Steven Soderbergh)导演、本尼西奥•德尔•托罗(Benicio Del Toro)主演的《切•格瓦拉》(Che)这样的影片避而远之。

在圣丹斯电影节，备受期待的影片也只吸引来很少的买家。经验丰富的娱乐业律师约翰•斯洛斯(John Sloss)今年为圣丹斯电影节带来了19部影片。他表示，直到电影节结束，他只卖出了五部电影。

独立电影市场不景气的另一个因素就是营销成本的增加。十年前，独立电影的推介活动主要依靠免费宣传和人们的口口相传。而拥挤的市场正在促使发行商投入重金用来宣传影片。美国电影协会的数据显示，大型影业公司旗下的独立电影机构在营销上的花费从2006年的1,780万美元飙升到了2007年的2,570万美元，增幅达44%。从2002年开始，这类电影的营销投入增长了一倍，从而加剧了影片在市场上的争夺。

日益上涨的成本正在成为某些小制作电影进入观众视线的绊脚石。阿维•勒纳(Avi Lerner)表示，最近几年，更高的成本为他的电影制造了难以逾越的障碍。勒纳是《妈妈的新男友》的制片人，他还制作过许多登上大荧幕或者直接送往DVD市场的电影。他说，"显而易见，主要问题在于大型影业公司拥有投入营销的大笔资金，在这一点上无人能够匹敌。即便你为营销花费了1,000万到1,500万美元──这在过去已经足够了──在如今的市场上，这和影业公司为大片投入的7,000万美元以上的资金相比根本不值一提。"

许多大型影业公司旗下的特色公司拒绝发行悉尼•吕美特(Sidney Lumet)导演的电影《在魔鬼知道你死前》(Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)。因此，制片人决定通过THINKFilm发行该片。这是一家最近几个月在财务上遇到困难的小型发行公司。去年秋天，THINKFilm通过"平台发行" ──首先在两家影院上映，逐步扩大到约320家影院──将影片投放市场。当该片的股权投资者之一退出时，制片人迈克尔•塞伦齐(Michael Cerenzie)和布赖恩•林斯(Brian Linse)承受了寻找投资的巨大压力；林斯一度以Hollywood Hills的股票作抵押借入了18万美元。最终，THINKFilm 母公司旗下的Capitol Films投资了这部成本为1,800万美元的电影。

林斯说，"为这部电影寻找投资非常艰难。这让人难以想象，因为我们拥有伊桑•霍克(Ethan Hawke)和菲利普•西摩•霍夫曼这样的演员，不过事实的确如此。"该片主演还包括玛丽莎•托梅(Marisa Tomei)。

这部电影仅取得了刚刚突破700万美元的国内票房。部分原因在于THINKFilm只花了不到100万美元为影片造势，因此尽管获得了评论界极高的评价，该片还是被在奥斯卡季上映的众多影片掩盖住了光芒。

不过，电影节的宠儿遭到市场冷遇正在成为越来越普遍的现象。成长纪事喜剧《第二滴血》(Son of Rambow)讲述了两个梦想拍电影的英格兰男孩的故事。作为2007年圣丹斯电影节上的热门影片，有报导说该片的发行权卖出了750万美元左右的高价──这也是当年圣丹斯电影节上最大的一笔购买交易之一。

2008年5月，Vantage在评论界的一片叫好声中发行了该片。不过《第二滴血》却败下阵来，只取得了178万美元的票房。该片通过"平台发行"于5月初在影院露面，上映当天正逢派拉蒙的《钢铁人》公映的第一天。尽管《第二滴血》在5月份逐步扩大了放映范围，但没能突出重围，躲过从《夺宝奇兵4》(Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull)到《欲望都市》(Sex and the City)等一系列大片的狂轰乱炸。

电影业资深的管理人士、与该片没有任何关系的马克.吉尔(Mark Gill)说，"《第二滴血》代表了那些在五年前能够取得成功，而在当下的电影市场却一败涂地的电影。"他还说，"《第二滴血》得到了评论界的好评，观众喜欢它，营销也很到位。这部片子样样都好，结果却没能取得票房上的成功，原因是眼下电影扎堆儿出炉，没有哪部片子能在这种环境下破茧而出。"
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