今年夏季的一天上午,我被领进谷歌总部"Googleplex"的一个小会议室,跟谷歌(Google Inc.)旗下摩托罗拉公司(Motorola)的CEO丹尼斯·伍德赛德(Dennis Woodside)聊天。他让我提前看到了摩托罗拉彼时尚未公布的旗舰智能手机"Moto X"。
One morning this summer, I was ushered into a small
conference room at the Googleplex to chat with Dennis Woodside, the CEO of Google Inc.'s Motorola division, where he gave me a sneak preview of the company's flagship smartphone, the Moto X, which hadn't yet come out.
会谈结束后,我对谷歌两年前收购这家陷入困境的手机制造商的决定愈发不解。伍德赛德把Moto X拿给我看的时候,我觉得它聪明但并不惊艳。这款9月份发布的手机尽管有一些新颍的功能,但似乎并不足以证明谷歌在摩托罗拉身上花的125亿美元是值得的。买手机的人显然也是这么认为的。谷歌本月发布的财报其他方面都很抢眼,推动其股价上窜到1,000美元以上,唯独摩托罗拉移动在第三季度亏了2.48亿美元。亏损幅度在扩大——上年同期摩托罗拉亏损为1.92亿美元。
I left the meeting more puzzled than ever about Google's decision to buy the struggling
device maker two years ago. When Mr. Woodside showed me the Moto X, I found it clever but unspectacular. Though the phone, which came out in September, had a few innovative features, it didn't look like a phone to justify the $12.5
billion Google had spent on Motorola. Phone buyers
apparently agree. Last week, amid an
otherwise glowing
earnings report that sent its stock soaring above $1,000 a share, Google disclosed that Motorola Mobile lost $248 million in the third quarter. The losses are growing -- a year ago, Motorola Mobile lost $192 million.
谷歌对于摩托罗拉的长远打算是什么?它收购这家公司只是为了专利吗?还是真想进入硬件领域?谷歌愿意砸多少钱进去呢?
What is Google's long-term plan for Motorola? Did it buy the business just for patents, or does Google really want to be in the
hardware business? How much money is Google
willing to sink into it?
我在这样假设:如果谷歌对摩托罗拉的打算没有考虑利润问题呢?如果谷歌的智能手机计划不是直接给自己挣钱,而是让手机沦为大路货、不让其他公司挣钱呢?
Here's a theory that I've been playing with: What if profits aren't part of the plan at Motorola? What if Google's plan for smartphones isn't to directly make money for itself but, instead, an attempt to destroy money for other companies by making the phone a
commodity device?
具体地说,不妨把谷歌收购摩托罗拉的长远目的想成是针对苹果(Apple)以及较小程度上针对三星(Samsung),拉低两家公司从智能手机这种单一产品线上赚取的高得离谱的利润。仅仅iPhone就为苹果贡献了接近三分之二的利润,是目前世界上最赚钱的产品。与此同时,三星贩售安装了谷歌安卓操作系统的手机也赚了不少。所以,虽然三星在名义上是谷歌的合作伙伴,但考虑到它在安卓生态系统中的影响力,它也是谷歌的一个新兴对手。2012年苹果和三星的智能手机业务一共获利530亿美元,使手机成为科技行业中最赚钱的产品,恐怕也是所有行业中除了石油以外最赚钱的产品。
In particular, think of Motorola as a long-term effort to drive down the insanely high profits raked in by just two companies -- Apple and, to a
lesser extent, Samsung -- on a single product line, smartphones. The iPhone alone is
responsible for almost two-thirds of Apple's profits, which makes it by far the most
profitable product in the world. Samsung, meanwhile, has earned billions by selling phones
running Google's Android operating system. This makes Samsung Google's nominal partner, but
considering the power it wields in the Android ecosystem, also an emerging rival. Together, in 2012, Apple and Samsung generated $53
billion in profit in the smartphone business, making phones the most lucrative products in all of tech, and perhaps in any industry other than oil.
从长远来讲,谷歌无法坐视这么高的利润。作为一个企业实体,谷歌对那么一个唯一的重大使命有着一种接近于宗教的虔诚。从安卓、Chrome等核心产品到自动驾驶汽车和智能眼镜等异想天开的新潮事物,它所做的一切都是为了实现一个唯一的目标:让更多的人更加频繁地使用互联网。
Over the long run, Google can't abide these profits. As a corporate entity, Google is obsessively, almost religiously
devoted to a single,
towering mission. Everything it does, from core products such as Android and Chrome to far-out flights of fancy like robotic cars and computerized glasses, furthers a single goal: to get more people to use the Internet more often.
智能手机生产商的利润是实现这一使命的一道障碍。苹果最新款iPhone的售价是650美元。(如果买合约机,则是间接地付出这个价格——买手机的时候花199美元,其余部分放在月套餐费里面支付。)其中一半以上都是利润。
The profits earned by smartphone makers stand as a hurdle to that mission. Apple sells its newest iPhone for $650. (If you bought the phone on contract, you pay that
amountindirectly -- $199 when you buy the phone, and the rest as part of your
monthly cellular plan.) More than half of that is profit.
换句话说,在谷歌的世界观里,iPhone定价过高。如果iPhone价格便宜一些,苹果卖的手机数量就会远远多于现在。业内其他公司也一样,因为它们的智能手机定价都是以苹果为标杆。这样一来,谷歌就得到了好处:iPhone卖得越多,上网特别是搜索的人就越多,谷歌得到的广告收入也越多。iPhone价格调低也意味着苹果利润率变薄,是谷歌乐于看到的。
In other words, in Google's view of the world, the iPhone is way overpriced. If the iPhone were cheaper, Apple would sell a lot more phones than it does now. So too would the rest of the industry, since other companies peg their smartphone prices to Apple's. This would be a boon for Google: More iPhones means more surfing (especially search), which means more ad dollars for Google. A lower price for iPhones would also mean a slimmer profit for Apple, something that would please Google.
但怎样才能迫使苹果减少其智能手机利润呢?2011年,在谷歌安卓操作系统刚刚开始超越苹果iOS市场份额的时候,创业投资家比尔·格利(Bill Gurley)写了一篇文章,是我近几年读到的最有预见性的科技分析文章之一。他写道,安卓和Chrome不是传统意义上的"产品"。谷歌投入巨资开发它们,但并不指望从中获得任何直接的回报,因为其真正目的是把它们当作一条"护城河"来保卫自己的"城堡"——广告业务。格利说,谷歌迫使黑莓(BlackBerry)、诺基亚(Nokia)和苹果等竞争对手跟没有获利动机的产品竞争,可能形成了"史上最大规模的合法财富破坏行动"。
But how do you force Apple to cut its smartphone profits? In 2011, back when Google's Android operating
system was just
beginning to
eclipse Apple's iOS market share, the
venturecapitalist Bill Gurley wrote one of the most prescient tech analyses I've read in recent years: Android and Chrome, he wrote, are not 'products' in the
classical sense. Google invests vast sums in creating them, but it doesn't expect any direct return from them, because its real goal is to use them as a 'moat' to protect its 'castle,' the ad business. By forcing competitors like BlackBerry, Nokia and Apple to
compete with products that have no profit motive, Mr. Gurley argued that Google may have engineered 'the greatest legal
destruction of
wealth in history.'
两年过后,我们发现格利基本正确:安卓现在是全世界最有影响的智能手机操作系统,它形成了一个iOS手机低价竞争对手的巨大市场,从一个方面极大地放慢了苹果的利润增长。
Two years later, we see that Gurley was
mostly right: Android is now the world's most
dominant smartphone operating system, and by creating a vast market of low-cost
competition to iOS devices, it has helped dramatically slow Apple's
earnings growth.
但我想谷歌并不满足于此。今天有很多公司在生产廉价的安卓手机,但其中很多手机都是垃圾——性能不足,广告软件堆积,网速慢。正是因为这样的原因,消费者开始愿意付出更高的价格购买苹果和三星的智能手机。
But I
suspect that's not enough for Google. Today there are lots of companies making cheap Android phones, but many of those phones are junk -- underpowered, clogged with adware, and hobbled as Web surfing devices. That's why customers are still
willing to pay Apple and Samsung pay
premium prices for smartphones.
于是就有了谷歌对其智能手机部门的愿景。不妨把摩托罗拉想成安卓策略在硬件领域的运用——它不是一个追逐盈利的实体,最终唯一的经济目的,是生产出价格合理、质量较好的手机。它希望这样做能够迫使苹果和三星降低其硬件价格(以及利润),加快智能手机成为大路货的进程。
Hence Google's emerging
vision for its smartphone division. Think of Motorola as the
hardwareversion of the Android
strategy -- not a profit-seeking entity, but instead one whose only eventual economic
motive is to create pretty good phones at
reasonable prices. In doing so, it hopes to force Apple and Samsung to slash their
hardware prices -- and thus
earnings -- accelerating the smartphone's path toward becoming a
commodity device.
上述假设的唯一缺陷在于:到目前为止,还没有证据表明摩托罗拉压低了智能手机的价格。Moto X合约价为99美元或更低,是当前市场上最好的廉价手机之一。但苹果和三星似乎没有予以留意。尽管苹果推出了价格更低的iPhone 5C——99美元,基本上算是老一代手机——其定价结构仍跟前几年基本保持一致。
The only
wrinkle in this theory: So far, there's no evidence that the Motorola is pushing down prices. The Moto X is selling for $99 or less on contract, and is thus one of the best low-priced phone you can buy today. But Apple and Samsung don't seem to have noticed. Even with the
launch of the lower priced iPhone 5C -- which is basically last year's phone at $99 -- Apple's pricing
structure is largely
unchanged from
previous years.
但谷歌一直明确表示收购摩托罗拉是为了做长远打算。如果最后人人都拥有便宜的好手机,我想它是愿意等上几年并亏掉几十亿美元的。
But Google has always made clear that Motorola is a long-term play. It is
willing to wait years and, I suspect, lose billions if the end result is cheap, great phones for everyone.