Is Google Sitting on the Clock of eBay?
Is Google the next eBay?
Maybe. There are some worrisome parallels between Google today and eBay in 2005-06, as the online-auction company's growth was faltering.
Consider this history: In August 2004, then-Chief Executive Meg Whitman said she didn't believe eBay was approaching anything like saturation. Just six months later the company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast that in hindsight was the end of its red-hot growth phase. EBay's stock is now trading at less than half its December 2004 level.
Through 2005-06 some hoped that eBay's PayPal unit, acquired in 2002, and Skype, in 2005, would prove to be new growth engines, along with international markets. As it turned out, of course, after writing off much of the Skype purchase price, eBay now is looking to jettison it. And growth at PayPal and internationally hasn't been enough to stop eBay's top-line growth rate from decelerating.
When it comes to Google, there also are hopes for international growth. YouTube has some similarities with Skype, high user traffic but relatively low revenue. Whether YouTube can live up to its promise as a big ad platform is uncertain.
Another of Google's potential growth engines is Android. But its ability to help Google expand in the mobile-ad market remains unproved.
Certainly, Google can claim lots of phones soon may be using the Android operating system. Unfortunately, they don't include the two phone brands that account for much of the growth in the smart-phone market, Apple and Research In Motion's BlackBerry. Google also is banking on expanding into display advertising.
While investors wait for these new initiatives to prove themselves, growth is slowing in the core paid-search ad business. Google's revenue growth rate has fallen from 93% in 2005 to 31% in 2008.
The recession has demonstrated the Internet company isn't immune from pressures other ad-dependent businesses face. Revenue growth dropped to 3% year on year in the second quarter.
Moreover, as U.S. revenue growth was only 1.6%, it is possible that Google's core search business actually shrank in the U.S. when contributions from newer businesses like mobile advertising are excluded.
Google's revenue growth will certainly accelerate coming out of the recession. The issue is by how much and for how long.
In the short term, growth will be sparked by 'price reinflation of key words,' said Majestic Research Managing Director John Aiken. Prices fell during the worst of the slump. Assuming demand returns, price per clicks should rise again.
But that won't sustain growth long term. That rests on several other variables, including where consumers go to search the Internet and how many searches they do.
Competition from Microsoft's revamped search engine, Bing, is showing signs of life. Search marketing firm Efficient Frontier reported this month that Bing had lifted its paid-click market share 44% since the beginning of June. It still is only 4.9%, but Microsoft's share will rise assuming the deal with Yahoo is completed.
It would be foolish to predict that Google won't have another business success, of course. Microsoft managed to leverage its strength in PC operating systems into a stranglehold over the word-processing and spreadsheet applications.
But investors should be careful buying on such hopes. With Google's medium-term revenue growth likely to fall toward 10%, it is hard to justify paying 25 times 2009 consensus earnings, including the cost of employee stock options. Google may itself discover the next Google-like business.
But until it proves that case, investors may want to wait for the stock to retreat.
谷歌会是下一个eBay，重走eBay的下滑之路吗？
或许吧。2005-06年的时候，eBay的增长之路开始步履蹒跚；现在的谷歌和当时的eBay存在着一些令人担忧的相似之处。
可以回顾下eBay的这段经历。2004年8月，当时的eBay首席执行长惠特曼(Meg Whitman)表示，她不认为eBay正接近市场饱和。但仅仅6个月之后，eBay就发布了弱于预期的业绩预期，现在看到，那标志着eBay强劲增长阶段的结束。EBay股价目前还不到2004年12月时的一半。
在2005-06年的时候，一些人希望eBay收购的两家公司（2002年收购的PayPal和2005年收购的Skype）能给eBay带来新的增长推动力，并打开海外市场。但结果却是，收购Skype之后eBay几乎冲销了收购Skype的价钱，现在eBay正在考虑出售这一业务。PayPal和国际业务的增长也不足以止住eBay收入增长的下滑势头。
再来看谷歌的问题，市场也对谷歌国际业务的增长报以厚望。YouTube和Skype存在着一些类似之处，用户流量很高，但收入水平却相对较低。YouTube能否兑现承诺成为一个重要广告平台，现在来看还很难说。
Android平台是谷歌另外一个潜在增长推动力。但Android能否帮助谷歌进军手机广告市场仍未可知。
当然，谷歌可以声称很快就会有很多手机采用Android操作系统。但不幸的是，这其中不包括两个在智能手机市场增长势头最强的品牌：苹果(Apple)的iPhone和RIM的黑莓(BlackBerry)。谷歌也在指望向显示广告市场扩展。
尽管投资者仍在等待这些新项目证明自身价值，但谷歌核心的付费搜索广告业务的增长正在放缓。谷歌的收入增长率已经从2005年的93%下滑到了2008年的31%。
经济衰退已经显示，谷歌无法回避其他依赖广告的公司面临的压力。今年第二季度，谷歌的收入同比增速已经下滑到了3%。
此外，鉴于美国市场收入增速只有1.6%，因此如果排除移动广告等较新业务的贡献，谷歌美国市场的核心搜索业务可能实际上是在收缩。
随着经济走出衰退，谷歌的收入增长无疑会随之加速。问题是，届时谷歌收入会实现怎样的增长以及能够持续多久。
研究公司Majestic Research董事总经理艾肯(John Aiken)表示，短期而言，谷歌搜索关键词价格的再次上扬将给该公司增长带来提振。在经济危机最严重时期，关键词的价格随之走低。如果需求回升，那么每次点击的价格也应会再次上扬。
但这恐怕不足以维持长期增长，还得取决于几个其他变量，包括消费者上哪儿进行网络搜索，以及他们进行搜索的次数。
在微软推出必应搜索引擎之后，市场竞争正在显示加剧迹象。搜索营销公司Efficient Frontier本月公布，自6月份推出以来，必应在广告点阅市场的份额已经上升了44%。尽管目前只有4.9%，但完成与雅虎(Yahoo)的交易后，微软的市场份额还会继续增长。
当然，认为谷歌不能开辟又一个成功的业务领域，这种想法是愚蠢的。微软就设法利用其在PC操作系统方面的强势，在文字处理和表单领域牢牢控制着市场。
但投资者应当保持谨慎，不应盲目根据此类预期买进股票。按照2009年的预期收益衡量，谷歌股票目前的市盈率为25倍，但考虑到谷歌的中期收入增长可能会跌向10%，这样的市盈率水平难说合理，而且还要外加谷歌员工的股票期权成本。谷歌可能会努力探寻下一个类似于当初谷歌的新业务。
但在谷歌证明这一点之前，投资者可能希望先等待该股回调。
关键字:英语阅读
生词表:
Is Google the next eBay?
Maybe. There are some worrisome parallels between Google today and eBay in 2005-06, as the online-auction company's growth was faltering.
Consider this history: In August 2004, then-Chief Executive Meg Whitman said she didn't believe eBay was approaching anything like saturation. Just six months later the company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast that in hindsight was the end of its red-hot growth phase. EBay's stock is now trading at less than half its December 2004 level.
Through 2005-06 some hoped that eBay's PayPal unit, acquired in 2002, and Skype, in 2005, would prove to be new growth engines, along with international markets. As it turned out, of course, after writing off much of the Skype purchase price, eBay now is looking to jettison it. And growth at PayPal and internationally hasn't been enough to stop eBay's top-line growth rate from decelerating.
When it comes to Google, there also are hopes for international growth. YouTube has some similarities with Skype, high user traffic but relatively low revenue. Whether YouTube can live up to its promise as a big ad platform is uncertain.
Another of Google's potential growth engines is Android. But its ability to help Google expand in the mobile-ad market remains unproved.
Certainly, Google can claim lots of phones soon may be using the Android operating system. Unfortunately, they don't include the two phone brands that account for much of the growth in the smart-phone market, Apple and Research In Motion's BlackBerry. Google also is banking on expanding into display advertising.
While investors wait for these new initiatives to prove themselves, growth is slowing in the core paid-search ad business. Google's revenue growth rate has fallen from 93% in 2005 to 31% in 2008.
The recession has demonstrated the Internet company isn't immune from pressures other ad-dependent businesses face. Revenue growth dropped to 3% year on year in the second quarter.
Moreover, as U.S. revenue growth was only 1.6%, it is possible that Google's core search business actually shrank in the U.S. when contributions from newer businesses like mobile advertising are excluded.
Google's revenue growth will certainly accelerate coming out of the recession. The issue is by how much and for how long.
In the short term, growth will be sparked by 'price reinflation of key words,' said Majestic Research Managing Director John Aiken. Prices fell during the worst of the slump. Assuming demand returns, price per clicks should rise again.
But that won't sustain growth long term. That rests on several other variables, including where consumers go to search the Internet and how many searches they do.
Competition from Microsoft's revamped search engine, Bing, is showing signs of life. Search marketing firm Efficient Frontier reported this month that Bing had lifted its paid-click market share 44% since the beginning of June. It still is only 4.9%, but Microsoft's share will rise assuming the deal with Yahoo is completed.
It would be foolish to predict that Google won't have another business success, of course. Microsoft managed to leverage its strength in PC operating systems into a stranglehold over the word-processing and spreadsheet applications.
But investors should be careful buying on such hopes. With Google's medium-term revenue growth likely to fall toward 10%, it is hard to justify paying 25 times 2009 consensus earnings, including the cost of employee stock options. Google may itself discover the next Google-like business.
But until it proves that case, investors may want to wait for the stock to retreat.
谷歌会是下一个eBay，重走eBay的下滑之路吗？
或许吧。2005-06年的时候，eBay的增长之路开始步履蹒跚；现在的谷歌和当时的eBay存在着一些令人担忧的相似之处。
可以回顾下eBay的这段经历。2004年8月，当时的eBay首席执行长惠特曼(Meg Whitman)表示，她不认为eBay正接近市场饱和。但仅仅6个月之后，eBay就发布了弱于预期的业绩预期，现在看到，那标志着eBay强劲增长阶段的结束。EBay股价目前还不到2004年12月时的一半。
在2005-06年的时候，一些人希望eBay收购的两家公司（2002年收购的PayPal和2005年收购的Skype）能给eBay带来新的增长推动力，并打开海外市场。但结果却是，收购Skype之后eBay几乎冲销了收购Skype的价钱，现在eBay正在考虑出售这一业务。PayPal和国际业务的增长也不足以止住eBay收入增长的下滑势头。
再来看谷歌的问题，市场也对谷歌国际业务的增长报以厚望。YouTube和Skype存在着一些类似之处，用户流量很高，但收入水平却相对较低。YouTube能否兑现承诺成为一个重要广告平台，现在来看还很难说。
Android平台是谷歌另外一个潜在增长推动力。但Android能否帮助谷歌进军手机广告市场仍未可知。
当然，谷歌可以声称很快就会有很多手机采用Android操作系统。但不幸的是，这其中不包括两个在智能手机市场增长势头最强的品牌：苹果(Apple)的iPhone和RIM的黑莓(BlackBerry)。谷歌也在指望向显示广告市场扩展。
尽管投资者仍在等待这些新项目证明自身价值，但谷歌核心的付费搜索广告业务的增长正在放缓。谷歌的收入增长率已经从2005年的93%下滑到了2008年的31%。
经济衰退已经显示，谷歌无法回避其他依赖广告的公司面临的压力。今年第二季度，谷歌的收入同比增速已经下滑到了3%。
此外，鉴于美国市场收入增速只有1.6%，因此如果排除移动广告等较新业务的贡献，谷歌美国市场的核心搜索业务可能实际上是在收缩。
随着经济走出衰退，谷歌的收入增长无疑会随之加速。问题是，届时谷歌收入会实现怎样的增长以及能够持续多久。
研究公司Majestic Research董事总经理艾肯(John Aiken)表示，短期而言，谷歌搜索关键词价格的再次上扬将给该公司增长带来提振。在经济危机最严重时期，关键词的价格随之走低。如果需求回升，那么每次点击的价格也应会再次上扬。
但这恐怕不足以维持长期增长，还得取决于几个其他变量，包括消费者上哪儿进行网络搜索，以及他们进行搜索的次数。
在微软推出必应搜索引擎之后，市场竞争正在显示加剧迹象。搜索营销公司Efficient Frontier本月公布，自6月份推出以来，必应在广告点阅市场的份额已经上升了44%。尽管目前只有4.9%，但完成与雅虎(Yahoo)的交易后，微软的市场份额还会继续增长。
当然，认为谷歌不能开辟又一个成功的业务领域，这种想法是愚蠢的。微软就设法利用其在PC操作系统方面的强势，在文字处理和表单领域牢牢控制着市场。
但投资者应当保持谨慎，不应盲目根据此类预期买进股票。按照2009年的预期收益衡量，谷歌股票目前的市盈率为25倍，但考虑到谷歌的中期收入增长可能会跌向10%，这样的市盈率水平难说合理，而且还要外加谷歌员工的股票期权成本。谷歌可能会努力探寻下一个类似于当初谷歌的新业务。
但在谷歌证明这一点之前，投资者可能希望先等待该股回调。
关键字:英语阅读
生词表:
- august [ɔ:´gʌst]
a.尊严的；威严的 六级词汇 - forecast [´fɔ:kɑ:st] vt.&n.预测；预报 六级词汇
- blackberry [´blækbəri] n.黑莓 四级词汇
- banking [´bæŋkiŋ] n.银行业 四级词汇
- shrank [ʃræŋk] shrink的过去式 六级词汇
- accelerate [ək´seləreit] v.加速；变快；促进 六级词汇
- earnings [´ə:niŋz] n.收益；报酬；获得 六级词汇
文章标签:谷歌
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