酷兔英语


Most everyone will agree that we are in the middle of a digital technology revolution. Digital technologies are being integrated into just about every nook and cranny of the economy, society and our personal lives. In the process, they are leading a historicaltransition from the industrialeconomy of the past couple of centuries to a new kind of digital economy and information-based society. As part of this transition, our economy, and just about all institutions of society, are going through major structural changes whose vast implications are not well understood.


多数人都会认可这样一个观点:我们正处于一场数字技术的革命当中。数字技术融入经济、社会和个人生活的方方面面,并在此过程中引领一个历史性的转变,让延续数世纪之久的工业化经济转向一种全新的数字化经济和信息技术社会。作为大变革的一部分,我们的经济,以及几乎每一个社会层面,都在经历一场重大的结构性变化,而其中蕴含的深远意义还没有得到很好的理解。



It's very difficult to anticipate the consequences of disruptive technologies and innovations. When first developed in the late 19th century, electricity was mostly used to replacekerosene lamps and candles with light bulbs. It took several decades for electric appliances, the assembly line and mass production to emerge and help create whole new industries and many new jobs. Similarly, the impact of the automobile has been felt way beyond its original transportation role, becoming a key driver of the economy in the 20th century, including the rise of the suburbs.


我们难以预料颠覆性的技术和创新会带来什么后果。19世纪末电力刚刚开始应用时,主要用来替代煤油灯和蜡烛灯,数十年后才出现家用电器、组装线和大规模生产模式,从而形成一个全新的产业,创造出许多新的工作岗位。与此类似,汽车也脱离了起初作为交通工具的纯粹功能,与城镇化进程一样,成为20世纪推动经济发展的关键驱动力之一。



If it has proved difficult to predict the long term impact of major industrial-based innovations, it's even more difficult to do so with IT-based innovations because they are so relatively recent. While it might feel that the Web has been around for a very long time, it has only been widely used for less than 20 years. And the smartphones, tablets and other mobile technologies we can barely do without have only been with us for less than half that time. So it is not surprising that most studies looking out a few decades into the future include the caveat that the future is essentially unpredictable, whether because of the emergent behaviors inherent in complex chaotic systems like the economy, or because of the ever-present potential for black swan events which are near-impossible to predict but when they do arrive can profoundly shape the course of history.


事实证明,预测重大工业创新的长远影响是很难的,预测信息技术创新的影响则更为困难,因为它们出现的时间都相对较短。虽然人们可能觉得互联网已经存在很长时间,但其被广泛使用也就是不到20年的时间,而智能手机、平板电脑以及其他一些人们已经不可或缺的移动技术则仅仅面世不到10年时间。因此,绝大多数展望未来数十年的研究报告都会写上一句警示声明:从本质上来说,未来难以预测。这既是因为经济这类错综复杂的体系有一种根深蒂固的应激性临时反应,也因为被视为几乎不会发生的黑天鹅事件确有可能发生,而且一旦降临,所产生的后果将深刻改变历史的进程。



Despite our cloudy crystal ball, a few basic trends stand out. Let me mention and briefly discuss three such trends that appear repeatedly in studies about the future: the need for lifelong education to help workers keep up with rapidly advancing technologies and fast changing job markets; the impact of globalization in raising the standards of living in emerging and developing economies; and the challenges to health care and social benefit programs posed by aging populations around the world.


虽然未来迷雾重重,但有几个基本的大趋势是明显的。我想主要介绍在各种研究报告中被反复提及的三大未来趋势:一是劳动者需要终身学习以跟上科技的迅猛发展以及就业市场的快速变化;二是全球化能够提高新兴市场和发展中国家的生活水准;三是全世界范围的人口老龄化将给医疗和社会福利保障带来挑战。



Jobs and Lifelong Learning


趋势一:就业与终身学习



Prior to the Industrial Revolution, only a small percentage of the world's population was literate. Literacy rates increased throughout the 19th century, as people started moving from the countryside to towns and cities for the job opportunities opening up in the newly industrialized societies. Many of these new jobs, especially the higher paying ones, required the ability to read and write. With the rise of universal education in almost all countries around the world, literacy rates have steadily gone up over the past hundred years.


在工业革命之前,全世界只有一小部分人受过教育。新的工业化社会带来新的就业机会,人们开始从乡村迁往城镇,识字率在整个19世纪逐步上升。许多新工作,尤其是较高收入的工作,要求劳动者具备读写能力。全世界几乎所有国家的大学教育都开始兴起,几百年以来,文盲率稳步下降。



But basic literacy is no longer enough. For years now, routine human tasks, that is, those tasks that can well be described by a set of rules, have been taken over by technology substitution and automation. Many blue-collar manufacturing activities in assembly plans have fallen into this category. So have an increasing number of white-collar information-based activities, including record keeping and many kinds of administrative tasks.


然而,如今基本的读写能力已经是不够了。多年来,常规的劳动任务,即那些可以被一系列规则所描述出来的工作,已被技术产品和自动化所取代。很多组装车间蓝领工人的生产活动就属于这一类别,此外也包括越来越多的基于信息技术的白领工作,如簿记和不少行政事务工作等。



Not surprisingly, our knowledge-based digital economy requires better educated workers with specific skills requirements. For example, we are surrounded by smart machines