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投资者忘记了他们在金融危机期间所感受到的那种痛彻心扉的切身恐惧

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Are those who can't remember the crash condemned to repeat it?


忘记了过去惨痛教训的人是否注定还会重蹈覆辙？



Markets have been rising and investors returning to stocks, thanks to cheap money from central banks, a rash of takeover deals, the glimmers of economic recoveryΰand an epidemic of amnesia.


一段时间以来，股市又在持续上涨，投资者们又回来了。对此，各国央行源源不断印制出来的廉价货币、市场上接二连三的并购交易、经济显现的些微复苏希望──以及健忘症的蔓延──等等这些因素都有贡献。



Many investors have been behaving as if the bloodbath between October 2007 and March 2009, when the U.S. and global stock markets lost at least 50%, had never happened. More worrisome, investors are forgetting the agonizingly real fear they felt during the financial crisis.


许多投资者的所作所为就彷佛2007年10月到2009年3月期间的那场大浩劫从未发生过。那段时间里，美国和全球股市跌去了至少50%。更糟糕的是，投资者忘记了他们在金融危机期间所感受到的那种痛彻心扉的切身恐惧。



That could lead some to take more risk than they should and incur losses they can't withstand. So it is vital to evaluate whether you suffer from investing amnesia and, if you are, to counteract it before it is too late.


而这有可能导致一些人去冒更大的风险，并因此招致他们所无法承受的损失。所以，要搞清楚自己是否染上了投资健忘症，并且在已经患病在身的情况下要想办法及时治疗，这十分关键。



There isn't any doubt that individual investors have been getting more aggressive. Leading discount brokerages TD Ameritrade Holding, E*Trade Financial, Charles Schwab, Fidelity Investments and Scottrade added $170 billion in retail assets in the first three quarters of last year, according to Ana Avramovic, a trading strategist at Credit Suisse Group. Margin debtΰborrowing that individual investors use to juice up returns on their brokerage accountsΰexceeds $330 billion, up 24% in 12 months.


毫无疑问的是，散户投资者已变得越来越活跃。据瑞信集团(Credit Suisse Group)的交易策略师阿纳•阿夫拉莫维奇(Ana Avramovic)称，散户的积极入市使得包括TD Ameritrade Holding、E*Trade Financial、嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)、富达投资(Fidelity Investments)和史考特证券(Scottrade)在内的这些佣金较低的证券公司，在去年前三个季度里散户资产增加了1,700亿美元。保证金负债量（即散户投资者为提高其股票账户的回报而进行的借贷）超出3,300亿美元，在12个月的时间里增长了24%。



People are revising their memory of the financial crisis, as if they were looking into a rearview mirror made of rose-colored glass. Financial planners report that clients are increasinglysaying 2008 and 2009 were no big deal.


人们在修正他们对于金融危机的记忆，就彷佛他们正透过一面由玫瑰色玻璃制成的后视镜在回望过去。理财顾问们称，他们的客户越来越倾向于认为2008年和2009年所发生的那些事没什么大不了的。



Derek Tharp, an adviser at Mote Wealth Management in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, says he has several clients who are 'rewriting history.' In late 2008 and early 2009, he says, these people often sent long, panicky emails past 10 in the evening 'to explain exactly why this was the end of the financial markets and they needed to get out now.'


爱荷华州锡达拉皮兹市(Cedar Rapids)资产管理公司Mote Wealth Management的顾问德拉克•撒普(Derek Tharp)说，他有好几位客户正在"重写历史"。他说，在2008年年末到2009年年初时，这些人常常在晚上10点后还发来长篇大论讲述他们恐慌心情的电子邮件，"解释到底为何这是金融市场的末日，以及为何他们需要马上抽身逃出"。



Today, Mr. Tharp says, 'they've put it out of their memory' and are eager to increase their return by adding more stocks. 'It just feels better for a lot of people' to forget their losses, he says.


如今，撒普说，"他们把这些都抛到了脑后"，而且迫切希望通过增持股票来增加回报。他说，对很多人来说，忘记过去的损失"就是会让他们感觉好过一些"。



You might think memory works like an engraving plate onto which events are carved in stone and preserved for decades until they fade with age. In reality, psychologists have shown, memory works more like an Etch A Sketch, on which events are traced but then often altered or erased entirely.


你或许以为，记忆就像是一块雕字的石板，在那上面，发生过的事情会被刻下来保存很久，直到几十年后岁月的流逝让上面的痕迹变得模糊。但实际上，心理学家已经证实，记忆更像是磁性画板，过去的一切会在上面留下痕迹，但之后经常会被涂抹修改甚至被彻底擦掉。



Elizabeth Loftus, a psychologist at the University of California, Irvine, says people are prone to 'spontaneous distortions of memory that make us feel better about ourselves.' Studies have shown, for example, that people remember voting regularly in national elections even when they haven't cast a ballot in at least six years and that 71% of students who earned D grades in high school later recall getting higher marks.


加州大学欧文分校(University of California, Irvine)的心理学家伊丽莎白•洛夫特斯(Elizabeth Loftus)说，人类往往会"无意识地让记忆失真，以便让我们的自我感觉能够更好"。举例来说，有研究表明，人们即便是在至少六年不曾参与过投票的情况下，也会在记忆中以为自己一直定期到大选中去投票，而71%在高中时得过D的学生，事后回忆起来时会认为自己曾经得到的是较高的分数。



'One thing that might make some investors feel better about themselves,' Ms. Loftus says, 'is remembering that their losses were smaller or their gains were bigger than they actually were.'


洛夫特斯说，"有一件事情有可能让一些投资者自我感觉稍好些，那就是在记忆中将损失缩小，或是将收益放大。"



That's exactly the kind of polishing of the past that seems to be going on in many investors' minds right now.


这种美化过去的做法恰恰就是眼下似乎正在许多投资者头脑中上演的一幕。



Memory whitewashes mistakes, too. Mark Armbruster of Armbruster Capital Management in Pittsford, N.Y., says one client insisted on putting 40% of a $5 million portfolio into a single hedge fund. Alarmed by the fund's risk, Mr. Armbruster badgered the client into selling. Shortly thereafter, the fund collapsed. The clientnarrowly missed losing $2 million.


记忆还会掩饰错误。纽约州皮茨福德(Pittsford)资产管理公司Armbruster Capital Management的马克•安布鲁斯特(Mark Armbruster)说，他有一位客户曾坚持要将一个资产总额达500万美元的投资组合中40%的资金投入某一只对冲基金。由于对这只基金所存在风险深感不安，安布鲁斯特软磨硬泡地说服客户卖掉了这部分投资。这之后不久，这只基金崩盘了。他的这位客户勉强逃过了损失掉200万美元的劫难。



In a subsequent conversation, Mr. Armbruster says, the investor had no recollection of what had happened. 'The whole episode had been blotted out from memory,' Mr. Armbruster says.


安布鲁斯特表示，在事后的一次交谈中，这位投资者根本不记得曾经发生过的这件事。安布鲁斯特说："这整件事从头到尾都被从他的记忆中抹掉了。"



Because memory is so malleable, Joachim Klement, chief investment officer at Wellershoff & Partners, a consulting firm in Zurich, urges his clients to keep an investment diary, creating a record of their buying and selling decisions and the reasons behind them. 'You can mitigate the flaws of memory by writing events down as they happen,' he says.


由于记忆如此不可靠，苏黎士咨询公司Wellershoff & Partners的首席投资长乔吉姆•克莱门特(Joachim Klement)敦促他的客户们创建一份投资日志，记录下来他们所做出的那些买卖决策以及决策背后的原因。他说："通过在事件发生时将它们记录下来，你可以减少记忆所犯的错误。"



You shouldn't trust your recollections of how you felt in 2008 and 2009. Instead, ask your spouse or a close friend how afraid you were, and look at your old account statements to see whether you sold at the bottom. The best guide to how you will act in the next market downturn is how you did act in the last one.


在2008年和2009年时你的感受是怎样的？若要得到这个问题的答案，你不应该信任自己的回忆，而应去问问你的亲朋好友当时你有多害怕，查看一下自己早先的账户记录，看看你是否是在底部抛售的资产。上一次市场下跌时你实际做了些什么，这是最好的行动指南，可以在下一次市场大跌时指导你该怎么办。



The great financial analyst Benjamin Graham wrote in his book 'The Intelligent Investor,' after which this column is named, that 'the investor's chief problemΰand even his worst enemyΰis likely to be himself.'


伟大的金融分析师本杰明•格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)在他的著作《聪明的投资者》(The Intelligent Investor)中写道："投资者的主要问题──甚至是他的头号敌人──有可能就是他自己。"



If you can't remember the pain you felt in the past when you lost money, you will have no one to blame but yourself if you end up feeling the same anguish all over again.


如果你记不住过去在遭受损失时的痛苦感受，那么在你最终又回到当初、再次感受到那样痛苦的时候，你怨不得别人，需要对此负责的只有你自己。



JASON ZWEIG


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