酷兔英语


It is nice to see shares of Facebook Inc. FB +5.26% break $30 again, though they still are down nearly 20% from their offering price.


到Facebook的股价又突破了30美元确实不错,虽然还是比发行价低了将近20%。



But investors have moved on.


然而,投资者已经不再纠结于该公司的股票了。



We are looking for the next big idea.


我们在寻找下一个大概念。



The social-networking company's initial public offering in May might have been the high-water mark of technology's new wave: a resurgence in life-changing technologies marked by social-media platforms and mobile delivery built around the Internet.


这家社交网络公司去年5月份的首次公开募股(IPO)可能是科技公司新浪潮的最高点,这个新浪潮就是,以社交媒体平台和围绕互联网的移动服务为代表的技术的兴起,这些技术改变了人们的生活。



The symbols of this new wave included Groupon Inc., Zynga Inc., LinkedIn Corp. LNKD +2.24% and Pandora Media Inc. P +4.83% Excitement over this generation of tech companies and ideas spurred innovation, changed lives, made their founders stars and fueled a much-needed wave of deals.


这一新浪潮的代表包括Groupon Inc.、 Zynga Inc.、 LinkedIn Corp. 和Pandora Media Inc.。这一代的技术公司和创意燃起的兴奋刺激了创新、改变了人们的生活,造就了一批偶像级的创始人,也引发了一波急需的上市热潮。



Last year brought 81 technology IPOs valued at a combined $29.3 billion, or more than three times the volume in 2008, according to Dealogic.


Dealogic的数据显示,去年共有81家科技企业进行IPO,融资总规模达到293亿美元,是2008年的三倍还多。



Even better, it made Wall Street relevant again by reminding a bailout-weary nation of the industry's role in fostering American capitalism.


更棒的是,它让一个厌倦了救助的国家想起了科技产业在培育美国资本主义时扮演的角色,从而让华尔街又有了价值。



Still, we seemed aware that it was too good to be true. The question facing the industry wasn't if there was a bubble, but how big it was and how long it would last.


尽管如此,我们似乎已经意识到现实不可能这么美好。这个产业的问题不在于是否存在泡沫,而是泡沫有多大,以及将持续多久。



Since Facebook stumbled out of the gate, however, things have been awfully quiet. There hasn't been a significant Internet tech offering. Even worse, there hasn't been any sustained buzz about anything in Silicon Valley, much less the next potential IPO.


自从Facebook进行了不顺利的IPO以来,科技企业一直出奇地寂静。再没有一家大型的互联网科技公司进行IPO。更糟糕的是,硅谷也再没有任何能够引起人们持续兴奋的东西,更不用说下一个可能的IPO了。



(Except for Twitter. It has been seven years. We're still waiting on Twitter.)


(推特(Twitter)是个例外。七年了,我们仍在指望着推特。)



It is true that venture-capital funds had their best fundraising year in 2012 since 2008, raking in a combined $20.57 billion.


的确,自2008年以来,2012年是风险投资基金筹集资金最多的一年,募集资金总额达205.7亿美元。



But some leading voices in Silicon Valley sound downright despondent about what isn't happening there. Michael Arrington, entrepreneur and founder of TechCrunch, said in a year-end lament about the lack of new ideas that he 'was bored.'


但是硅谷一些主流的声音似乎对一些事没有在那里发生感到失望透顶。TechCrunch的创始人阿林顿(Michael Arrington)在年底表达了对缺乏新创意的抱怨,他说,他感到无聊了。



'I just don't see the tons of crazy new ideas that I did a few years ago,' he wrote, 'things that are genuinely new and interesting.'


阿林顿写道,我现在无法像几年前那样看到那么多疯狂的新想法,那些真正新颍和有趣的东西。



The numbers back him up. Venture-capital fundraising fell to $3.29 billion in the fourth quarter from $6.2 billion in the second quarter. And the number of venture funds shrank by one-third to 42 at year end from a two-year high of 66 in the third quarter of 2011, according to Thomson Reuters and the National Venture Capital Association.


一些数据支持了他的观点。风险资本的筹资数额从2012年第二季度的62亿美元下降到第四季度的32.9亿美元。根据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters Corp.)和美国国家风险投资协会(National Venture Capital Association)的数据,去年年底时,美国风险投资基金的数量为42只,较2011年第三季度时达两年高点的66只减少了三分之一。



And those standard-bearers of tech's new wave? Since the end of June, only LinkedIn's share price is higher. Pandora is flat, while Groupon and Zynga shares have skidded.


这些科技新浪潮中的标杆企业表现如何呢?自从去年6月底以来,只有LinkedIn的股价有所上涨。Pandora的股价是持平的,Groupon和Zynga的股价均出现下跌。



Mergers and acquisitions are generally a sign of a booming market, but 2012 was a down year, with just $780 billion in deals, compared with $877 billion in 2010, according to Dealogic.


一般来说并购交易是市场繁荣的信号,但是2012年的并购市场非常冷清,根据Dealogic的数据,当年的并购交易规模仅为7,800亿美元,低于2010年的8,770亿美元。



As bubbles go, this one had all of the staying power of a birthday balloon in a pin factory. Should we have seen it coming?


随着泡沫的消失,这一波浪潮就像是针厂的气球,存在不了多长时间了。我们是不是本该看到这一点?



Probably not. The postmortems are pouring in, and the consensus is that what we witnessed was a flash in the normal course of innovation. The rapid success of the social-media and mobile new wave sucked up all the air in the room, perhaps to blow into the balloon.


或许并非如此。越来越多的人开始做事后的分析,他们达成的共识是,我们看到的是正常创新过程中的一个瞬间。社交媒体和移动新浪潮的迅速成功吸引了所有的资金,也产生了泡沫。



Inventors, entrepreneurs and those who financed them wanted to create the next viral platform. The pursuit became, as entrepreneur Francisco Dao called it, an 'echo chamber' far from 'the forefront of technology' where real innovation is taking place.


投资者、企业家和为他们融资的人想要创造下一个病毒式传播的平台。正如弗朗西斯科•道(Francisco Dao)所说,这个追求是远离前沿技术的回声室,这里会发生真正的创新。



Separately, investors on Wall Street were disillusioned by the empty promise of Groupon and Zynga. Facebook's stumbles and the suspicion that insiders 'in the know' were looking to cash out before a crash became the final blow to confidence.


另一方面,Groupon和Zynga的承诺落空让华尔街的投资者幻想破灭。Facebook的失利,以及对内部人士打算在崩盘前大赚一笔的疑虑对投资者信心造成最后的打击。



In the last 20 years, we have seen four separate peaks of tech bubbles (1995, 2000, 2007 and 2012). There will be another. It doesn't even need to work. We just need to be able to get excited about it.


过去20年,我们经历了四次科技泡沫的高峰(1995年,2000年,2007年和2012年)。未来还会出现一次。它甚至不需要发挥作用。我们只需对它感到兴奋就够了。



Until then, we can just wait for Twitter.


在此之前,我们只能等待推特了。



DAVID WEIDNER


DAVID WEIDNER