The 'Dogs of the Dow' didn't have the same bark in 2012.
道指狗股"(Dogs of the Dow)在2012年叫的没有往常那么响亮。
After two
consecutive years of
beating the market, one of Wall Street's
classic strategies didn't prove so fortuitous last year, sparking questions over whether the approach will rebound in 2013.
在连续两年跑赢大市之后,"道指狗股理论"这一华尔街经典投资策略去年却并不怎么成功,引发市场对于该投资策略在2013年是否会有较好表现的质疑。
The
strategy holds that investors should start the year by purchasing the 10 highest-yielding components of the Dow. The aim is to
acquire more
dividendincome and hope the past year's laggards return with a vengeance. Excluding
dividend increases, yields rise when stock prices fall, underscoring the core of the Dogs strategy.
该策略认为,投资者在年初应该买入道指中股息收益率最高的10只成分股。此举的目的是获得更多的股息收入,并希望过去一年表现落后的道指成分股在来年能够出现报复性反弹。假设股息收入不变,股价下跌则收益率上升,这凸显了"狗股理论"的核心选股思路。
Investors who used this
strategy in 2010 and 2011 were rewarded, as dividend-paying stocks prospered during those volatile years. But the Dogs stocks rose 5.7% last year, excluding
dividend income, falling short of the 7.3% increase for all 30 Dow stocks.
2010年和2011年使用这一策略的投资者获得了丰厚的回报,支付股息的股票在波动较大的这两年涨势喜人。但不算股息收入,2012年10只狗股的股价平均涨幅为5.7%,低于道指30只成分股7.3%的平均涨幅。
Making matters worse, the 14% gain from the 20 non-Dog stocks, excluding dividends, more than doubled that of the Dogs.
更糟的是,不算股息收入,道指成分股中20只非狗股股价平均涨幅为14%,是狗股涨幅的两倍多。
Including
dividend income, the Dogs had a total return of 9.8% in 2012, compared with a 10% total return for the wider Dow, according to market-research firm Bespoke Investment Group.
市场研究机构Bespoke Investment Group的数据显示,如果算上股息收入,10只狗股在2012年的总体回报率为9.8%,而道指30只成分股的总体回报率为10%。
Dividend-paying stocks lagged behind as the year came to a close amid fears of
potential tax hikes in early 2013 spurred by the
so-calledfiscal cliff.
岁末将至,就在市场担心所谓"财政悬崖"在2013年初可能引发增税的情况下,派息股的市场表现落后。
In 2012, the 100 stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index with the highest
dividend yields gained 7.4% before
dividend payouts, according to Birinyi Associates. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 as a whole rose 13%, and the 106 stocks that don't pay dividends rose 19%.
股市研究机构Birinyi Associates的数据显示,2012年在标准普尔500种股票指数的成分股中,股息收益率最高的100只股票在派息前上涨7.4%。与此同时,标准普尔500指数整体上涨13%,其中106只不支付股息的成分股上涨19%。
'Sentiment is somewhat
negative right now, but once that cloud gets lifted, that's when you'll see these stocks rise again,' says Michael Foss, a
partner and portfolio
manager for Baltimore-based Brown Advisory, which oversees about $30
billion in assets.
位于巴尔的摩的投资管理机构Brown Advisory的合伙人及投资组合经理福斯(Michael Foss)说,眼下市场情绪有些低迷,可一旦阴云消散,狗股会再次上涨。Brown Advisory管理的资产规模大约为300亿美元。
General Electric Co. was the best-performing Dog stock last year, growling to a 17% gain. Fellow Dogs Pfizer Inc. and AT&T Inc. were also big performers, rising 16% and 13%, respectively.
通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)是去年表现最好的狗股,涨幅高达17%。辉瑞制药有限公司(Pfizer Inc.)和美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)这两只狗股的涨幅也相当不错,分别为16%和13%。
But what really hurt the
strategy was the fact that the Dow's top performers last year were non-Dogs. Bank of America topped the blue-chip performers, rising 107%, and Home Depot jumped 47%.
但真正令这一投资策略颜面尽失的是,去年道指成分股中股价涨幅最高的并非狗股。美国银行(Bank of America)的涨幅在蓝筹股中高居榜首,达107%。而家得宝(Home Depot)的涨幅也高达47%。
The Dogs will feature two new companies this year: Hewlett-Packard Inc. and McDonald's Corp. They
replace Kraft Foods Group Inc., which was booted from the Dow last year, and Procter & Gamble.
今年将有两家新公司成为狗股一员:惠普(Hewlett-Packard Inc.)和麦当劳(Hewlett-Packard Inc.)。它们将取代卡夫食品(Kraft Foods Group Inc.)和宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble)。去年卡夫食品被踢出道指成分股。
Money
manager Michael O'Higgins is credited with creating the Dogs approach in the early 1990s.
据信,狗股理论是基金经理奥希金斯(Michael O'Higgins)在上世纪90年代初创立的。
'The
strategy forces you to buy companies when they're down and out,' says Mr. O'Higgins, who runs Florida-based O'Higgins Asset Management, which manages a little under $100 million. 'Anything that forces you to buy quality stocks when they've been knocked around is helpful.'
奥希金斯说,这一投资策略促使你买入那些股价大跌的公司股票。他认为,那些促使你买入股价大跌的优质股的投资策略都有助益。奥希金斯经营着总部位于佛罗里达州的奥希金斯资产管理公司(O'Higgins Asset Management),公司管理的资产规模接近1亿美元。
Mr. O'Higgins has tweaked his approach in recent years to what he calls the 'Dogs of the World,' which tracks global stock indexes. His method involves buying global stock indexes and exchange-traded funds that track some of the 'cheapest countries' based on his own valuations.
近年来奥希金斯已经调整了他的策略,并将其改名叫做"全球狗股"(Dogs of the World)。新策略追踪的是全球股指。他的方法是购买全球股指基金和交易所交易基金(ETF),这些基金追踪的是根据他自己的估值方法找到的一些"估值最便宜的国家"。
The Dogs aren't always a loyal moneymaker. Cumulatively, from 2001 through 2010, the Dogs yielded a smaller return than investing in all 30 Dow components, including dividends, according to Bespoke.
不过,所谓的"狗股"也不总是那么可靠。投资管理机构Bespoke的数据显示,总的来看,从2001年到2010年,算上股息收入,投资道指30只成分股得到的收益率要高于狗股带来的收益率。
Still, many investors see strategies based on dividend-paying stocks returning to favor in 2013. With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future, analysts suggest dividend-paying stocks look more
attractive than Treasurys in this yield-starved environment.
尽管如此,很多投资者认为在2013年,以派息股为基础制定的投资策略会重新受到青睐。由于美联储在可预见的未来将利率维持在低位,分析师认为,在这个收益率普遍不高的市场环境中,派息股比美国国债更具吸引力。
'In a 0% interest-rate environment, 5%
dividend yields will still be
attractive to investors seeking income,' says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.
Gary Goldberg Financial Services的总裁珀什(Oliver Pursche)说,在利率为0的市场环境中,对那些寻求收益的投资者来说,5%的股息收益率仍然是有吸引力的。
Steven Russolillo
Steven Russolillo