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世界上到处都是石油

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Suddenly, the world is awash in oil.


突然之间，世界上到处都是石油。



Only a few months ago, traders and investors were fretting about whether tensions in the Middle East and production problems elsewhere would lead to a shortage of crude oil. Now, many are worried there may be too much.


几个月前，交易员和投资者还在发愁：中东的乱局和其他地区的生产问题，会不会导致原油短缺？现在很多人担心的是，石油可能太多了。



Forecasters say that in the fourth quarter, global oil output will top demand by more than 630,000 barrels a day, the biggest surplus in four years. The jump is due to a confluence of events: Turmoil in the Middle East has subsided along with the production and transportation problems that had been stifling oil flows from the U.S. the North Sea and Africa. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is pumping more oil to replace falling Iranian exports, keeping output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries steady.


有人预言第四季度全球每日产油量将超出需求63万桶，过剩程度达到四年以来最高。过剩的猛增是多个事件共同导致的结果：中东的动荡已经平静下来，而阻碍石油从美国、北海和非洲输出的生产、运输问题也得到了缓解。与此同时，沙特阿拉伯正在提高石油产量，以弥补伊朗出口的下降，使石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称: OPEC, 即欧佩克)的产量得以保持平稳。



That is causing some investors and traders to change their view on the direction of prices. Already, Brent crude, the benchmark in Europe, is down 7.8% from a three-month high in August. U.S. crude prices are down 13% from a mid-September peak.


因此一些投资者和交易员在改变他们对于价格走势的看法。作为欧洲基准的布伦特原油价格已经从8月份的三个月高点下跌7.8%。美国原油价格较9月中旬的高峰下跌了13%。



Crude-oil prices have been particularly vulnerable to worries about the global economy that have recently seized financial markets. Many investors and traders say that with growth in many major oil-consuming countries still sluggish, demand isn't going to be strong enough to absorb all the extra supply.


投资者对全球经济形势的担忧最近成为笼罩在金融市场上方的阴云，而原油价格尤其容易受到这种担忧的影响。很多投资者和交易员说，由于很多主要用油国家的经济增长依旧疲软，石油需求将不足以消化全部过剩供给。



A sustained decline in crude-oil prices should lead cheaper gasoline and diesel products used by consumers and businesses, they add.


他们还说同，如果原油价格持续下跌，那么消费者和企业使用的汽油、柴油产品应该会更加便宜。



'There's plenty of oil out there now,' said Tariq Zahir, head of Tyche Capital Advisors, a $4 million commodity-trading advisor. He has wagered that rising supplies will push prices lower.


咨询公司Tyche Capital Advisors负责人扎希尔(Tariq Zahir)说，现在市面上石油很多。他曾预计供应的增加将打压价格走低。



Over the past month, hedge funds and other money managers cut by 23% their bullish bets on crude-oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


在过去一个月，对冲基金和其他基金管理机构做多纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange)原油期货、期权产品的头寸减少了23%。



On Wednesday, oil prices fell following a report from the U.S. Energy Department that showed domestic stockpiles rose last week to the highest level since July. Crude for December delivery fell $0.94, or 1.08%, to $85.73 a barrel on the Nymex. Brent crude on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange closed down 40 cents, or 0.37%, at $107.85 a barrel.


周三油价下跌，原因是美国能源部发布的报告显示上周国内库存升至7月份以来最高。纽约商品交易所12月交割的原油期货下跌0.94美元至每桶85.73美元，跌幅1.08%。洲际交易所美国期货分所(ICE Futures U.S.)布伦特原油期货收跌0.4美元至每桶107.85美元，跌幅0.37%。



Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last week cut its 2013 price forecast for Brent crude to $110 a barrel from $130. The bank's analysts said additional barrels are set to weigh on prices as new transportation networks relieve bottlenecks in the U.S.


高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)上周将布伦特原油2013年价格的预测从130美元下调至110美元。该行分析师说，随着新的运输网络舒缓美国的瓶颈，新增供应料将压低价格。



The outlook for rising oil supplies extinguished a rally in September that was driven by hopes that Federal Reserve stimulus efforts would bolster oil prices. Past stimulus efforts have resulted in a weakening dollar, which tends to lift prices.


石油供应量上升的前景令9月份的一次油价大涨戛然而止。当时油价上涨是因为投资者寄望于美联储(Federal Reserve)的刺激措施会推高油价。以往的刺激措施曾造成美元走软，而美元走软往往会推高油价。



'The oil price has gotten ahead of itself,' said Bob Shearer, a portfolio manager at Blackrock Inc. with $38 billion in assets under management. He has cut the size of his positions in the energy sector over the past year on concerns that rising supplies will weigh on prices.


贝莱德(Blackrock Inc.)投资组合经理希勒(Bob Shearer)说，油价涨得过高了。希勒管理着380亿美元的资产。过去一年他一直在降低能源类持仓头寸，因为他担心能源供应量上升将令价格承压。



The International Energy Agency earlier this month forecast supplies from countries outside OPEC will rise to 53.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, up 600,000 barrels a day from the third quarter.


国际能源署(International Energy Agency)本月早些时候预测，第四季度欧佩克以外的国家石油日供应量将上升至5,360万桶，较第三季度日供应量增加60万桶。



Non-OPEC nations account for nearly 60% of world output. While OPEC tries to control its members' production to keep prices higher, other countries and private firms are more focused on increasing output.


非欧佩克国家在全球石油产量中所占的比重接近60%。欧佩克努力控制成员国的石油产量，从而保持较高的油价，而其他国家和私营企业则更专注于提高产量。



Skeptics see lingering U.S. bottlenecks and Middle East conflicts keeping prices higher. There still aren't enough pipelines to bring all of the increased U.S. and Canadian production to refineries along the coast, limiting the impact of rising supplies, some investors and analysts said.


怀疑论者认为，难以消除的美国石油运输瓶颈和中东的冲突将令油价持续走高。一些投资者和分析人士说，目前仍没有足够多的石油管道将美国和加拿大增加的全部石油产量运至沿海的炼油厂，进而限制了供应量上升带来的冲击。



Also, turmoil in the Middle East remains a factor, says Christopher Burton, a portfolio manager for the $11 billion Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy. Syria's civil war risks pulling in neighboring Turkey, where pipelines help transport oil to European customers. The number of money managers' bullish bets on Brent has held steady due in part to the conflict.


此外，瑞信旗下Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy投资组合经理伯顿(Christopher Burton)说，中东的乱局仍是一个原因。该基金管理着110亿美元的资产。叙利亚的内战可能殃及邻国土耳其，而土耳其的石油管道一直在帮助将石油运给欧洲客户。从一定程度上由于中东的冲突，投资经理持有的布伦特原油多头头寸数一直保持稳定。



Still, as parts of the Middle East simmer, some countries in the region are boosting production. Iraq oil output this summer rose above 3 million barrels a day for the first time since 2000, and Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has pledged to keep pumping near record levels to offset any supply shortfalls from other OPEC members.


尽管如此，在中东部分地区冲突酝酿之际，该地区一些国家却开始增加石油产量。今年夏季伊拉克石油产量自2000年以来首次升至每日300万桶以上。世界最大的石油出口国沙特承诺继续以接近历史新高的产量生产石油，以便弥补其他欧佩克成员国的供应缺口。



Harry Tchilinguirian, a commodities analyst at BNP Paribas, said operators of oil fields in the North Sea, where oil output helps determine Brent prices, should resume normal shipments by the end of this year. Oil deliveries from West Africa should also increase, which will weigh on Brent, he said.


法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)大宗商品分析师奇林基里安(Harry Tchilinguirian)说，北海油田运营商应会在年底前恢复正常发货。北海的石油产量帮助决定了布伦特原油的价格。他说，西非的石油交货量也应该会上升，进而令布伦特原油价格承压。



Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi Global Markets Inc., says the IEA's fourth-quarter estimate for global oil output is too conservative. He estimates the U.S. alone could increase production by 600,000 barrels a day. 'It's the beginning of a big change,' he said.


花旗环球金融(Citi Global Markets Inc.)全球大宗商品研究负责人莫尔斯(Ed Morse)说，国际能源署对第四季度全球石油产量的估计过于保守。他估计仅美国一国石油日产量就可能增加60万桶。他说，这是一场大变的开始。



Jerry A. DiColo


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