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印度尼西亚的亿万富豪钱多得都没法准确计算了

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Indonesia's rupiah trillionaires have so much money that it's difficult to count it.


印度尼西亚的亿万富豪钱多得都没法准确计算了。



Forbes came out with its annual list of the country's richest this week, and it included many familiar faces among the archipelago's palm oil, paper, coal and tobacco barons. Most were smiling because they are worth billions more this year than before, thanks to rising stock and commodity prices, and growing domestic demand.


《福布斯》（Forbes）最近公布了印尼年度富豪榜，其中包括很多棕榈油、纸业、煤炭和烟草行业巨头的熟悉面孔。大多数都是笑脸，因为今年由于股市和大宗商品价格的上涨以及内需的增加，他们的资产比以前又多了几十亿。



'At a time when most of the world's economies are stagnating, Indonesia's list of wealthiest individuals demonstrates the continued growth of the economy and its opening up to reward entrepreneurial talents,' said Justin Doebele, chief editorial advisor of Forbes Indonesia.


《福布斯印尼》（Forbes Indonesia）首席编辑顾问贾斯廷•德贝尔（Justin Doebele）说，在世界大多数经济体发展停滞之时，印尼富豪榜却显示出印尼经济的持续增长以及对创业人才的慷慨回报。



However, when journalists or analysts ask someone like Eka Tjipta Widjaja the palm oil king worth $8 billion, according to Forbes or Anthoni Salim the head of the property-to-food Salim Group, worth $3.6 billion to give their actual worth, they rarely get a number. So how accurate are these kinds of estimates?


据《福布斯》统计，棕榈油大王黄亦聪（Eka Tjipta Widjaja）的资产为80亿美元，涉足房地产和食品等多个行业的三林集团（Salim Group）总裁林逢生（Anthoni Salim）身家36亿美元。不过，当记者或分析师请他们这样的富豪透露实际资产额时，却难以得到准确数据。那么，这样的估算数据到底有多准呢？



The answer is it depends on how open the companies are, and the accuracy of the assumption behind the computations performed to reach the final figures. Comparing the Forbes Top Ten to a similar survey by Indonesia's business magazine, Globe Asia, in June points to the guess-work involved.


答案是看情况而定，要看这些公司有多公开，以及得出最后数额所依据的推测数据的准确度。将福布斯十大富豪排行榜与印尼商业杂志《亚洲环球》（Globe Asia）6月所作的一份相似调查对比，就能看出其中有多少猜测的成分。



While both Top Tens include mostly the same names, there are sometimes huge gaps between what Forbes said an individual was worth and what Globe Asia said. The difference between the two net worth estimates was more than $1 billion for most of the top-ranked rich.


虽然《福布斯》和《亚洲环球》的十大富豪排行榜上榜名单差不多，但所列每位富豪的资产数却有很大出入。名列前茅的大多数富豪中，两份榜单所列净资产的差值都在10亿美元以上。



Of course, the Globe survey was published five months ago, and commodity and stock price fluctuations can account for some of the difference, though it also seems unlikely those fluctuations account for all the differences. Back then, Globe estimated Achmad Hamami, head of the group which distributes Caterpillar in Indonesia, was worth $250 million; the Forbes survey this week put him at $2.2 billion. Susilo Wonowidjojo is worth $10.5 billion according to Forbes; in the older Globe survey he was pegged at about one fifth that value.


当然，《亚洲环球》的榜单是五个月前发布的，大宗商品和股市价格的波动可能起到了一定的作用，但这些差距似乎不大可能都是这些波动造成的。当时，《亚洲环球》估算阿西马德•哈马米（Achmad Hamami）的资产为2.5亿美元，他所经营的集团是卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）在印尼的经销商；而《福布斯》此次榜单公布其资产为22亿美元。《福布斯》公布蔡道平（Susilo Wonowidjojo）的资产为105亿美元，而在之前的《亚洲环球》榜单上，他的资产仅是这个数字的大约五分之一。



When a billionaire's companies are publicly-listed, it is relatively easy to figure their worth. The value of their shareholdings are public knowledge and their companies are required to disclose their assets and liabilities. For unlisted entities it gets tougher, particularly in Indonesia, where there are few public documents and a lot of secretive companies. It's sometimes difficult to get even a good photo of the country's tycoons, so trying to find out what they are worth requires some detective work.


当亿万富翁的公司是上市公司时，计算这些公司的资产是比较容易的。他们所持股票的价值是公开的，公司也必须披露他们的资产和债务。而对未上市的实体来说就比较困难了，尤其是在印尼，这里极少有公开文件，并且有大量的秘密公司。要弄到企业巨头们的一张好照片有时都很困难，因此要查清他们的资产数额就需要一些侦探工作。



'It is guess-work, but it is not just plucking numbers out of thin air,' said Shoeb Kagda, editor of Globe Asia. 'Some of them are very shy and low-profile but there are ways' to dig up what they are worth, he said.


《亚洲环球》编辑卡格达（Shoeb Kagda）说，这是要靠猜测的，但并不是无中生有地捏造数据；有些富豪十分口腆和低调，但总有办法算到他们的资产数目。



Forbes says it follows a strict and proven methodology to come to its numbers, and confirms with the individuals and companies involved when possible. In particular, it says it estimates the value of non-listed assets by choosing a similar listed company and extrapolating from its capitalization. Globe Asia uses its reporters and connections to get a hint at what revenues are for the non-listed companies and calculates from there.


《福布斯》说他们是采用一套严格且经过验证的方法得出数字的，并尽可能地与所涉及的个人和公司核实。《福布斯》特别提到，对非上市资产价值的估算是通过选择一家相似的上市公司、然后从这家公司的资本额推算出来的。《亚洲环球》则是让记者及其人脉了解到这些非上市公司的大概收入，然后通过收入进行计算。



The massive difference between Globe's and Forbes' estimate of Mr. Hamami's net worth, for example, could be due to the fact that his group has just started to reveal results of its coal operations, said Mr. Kagda.


卡格达说，比如，《亚洲环球》和《福布斯》对哈马米净资产的估算值之间存在巨大差异，可能就是由于哈马米的集团刚开始公布其煤炭业务的业绩。



One thing everyone can agree upon though is that all the biggest billionaires have so much money that they have earned their spots in the spotlight.


不过，大家都认同的一点是，由于拥有如此巨大的财富，所有这些亿万富豪都在聚光灯下赢得了一席之地。



'If you are talking about someone that is worth $11 million, then $500 million here or there is an acceptablemargin of error,' said Mr. Kagda.


卡格达说，如果你说的是一个拥有110亿美元资产的人，那么5亿美元左右就是可以接受的误差。



Eric Bellman


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