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OPEC To Discuss More Production Cuts At Meeting

Having failed twice in two months to calm plunging oil markets, OPEC ministers are set to weigh another round of steep production cuts as the world's economic travails continue to drive crude prices to levels unseen in years.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has scrambled since September to stem the fall in oil prices, which is putting pressure on OPEC budgets from Ecuador to Kuwait. Ineffective in blunting the price spike earlier this year, the organization is proving similarlyhapless in putting a floor under collapsing prices.

The group's 12 ministers will meet Saturday in Cairo to decide whether to move ahead on another cut of a million barrels or more after agreeing to a total cut of two million barrels a day at two meetings over the past two months.

Their message going into the Cairo session has been mixed at best, with most ministers suggesting that any firm decision be postponed until they meet again in formal session next month in Algeria.

After hitting a record of nearly $150 a barrel in July, crude prices have since fallen to nearly a third of that in just four months, the steepest price collapse since formal futures trading began in 1981.

Thursday afternoon, the front-month January Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was down 36 cents at $53.56 a barrel.

Floor trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The cartel's de facto leader and the world's largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, finds itself in a bind. Most OPEC members will face real economic problems if crude prices see a sustained drop below $50 a barrel.

But at the same time, Saudi Arabia risks cutting supply and reducing fuel inventories at a time when the global economy is wrestling with a multifront crisis.

OPEC's ability to affect the market either way has been minimal, though, as demand continues to fall across the industrialized world and investment flows dry up.

Some analysts now predict that global demand could turn negative both this year and next, adding to a growing spare supply cushion that the world hasn't seen for years.

OPEC countries appear so far to have abided fairly well by pledges made since September to cut supply.

OPEC provides around 40% of the 86 million or so barrels of oil the world consumes daily. But that cohesion could begin to fray as exports and prices both fall.

With financial and social pressures rising, some OPEC nations are nearing an inflection point economically that could result in members such as Venezuela, Ecuador and Nigeria flatly ignoring additional production cuts.

Oil prices have fallen roughly 16% since OPEC announced plans to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day at an emergency meeting in late October.

But what has changed fundamentally since that meeting is the expectation that the global economic downturn will be longer lasting and economic recovery, when it does happen, even more sluggish.

Indonesia won't attend the weekend meeting. It no longer exports oil and will officially drop out of the cartel at the year's end.

Neil King Jr. / Spencer Swartz

由于全球经济的困顿仍令油价在多年未见的低位踏步,曾于此前两个月两度出手稳定原油市场、但都失望而归的石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称:欧佩克)的部长们肯定会考虑再次大幅减产。

自9月份以来,欧佩克就在全力挽回油价的跌势。油价跌势让从厄瓜多尔到科威特等欧佩克各成员国的预算在承压。今年早些时候欧佩克无力阻止油价飞涨,不幸的是,现在它也未必能在油价暴跌之际为其构筑底部。

欧佩克成员国12位部长将于周六在开罗召开紧急会议,决定是否将日产量削减100万桶甚至更多。欧佩克在过去两个月的两次会议上决定的日产量下调幅度合计为200万桶。



Bloomberg News/Landov

欧佩克秘书长巴德里表示原油市场供应过量欧佩克部长们在此次紧急会议召开之前所发出的信息并不统一,多数部长都建议推迟到下个月在阿尔及利亚举行的正式会议上再最后决定。

自7月份创下将近150元/桶的历史纪录以来,油价已在短短四个月时间里跌得几乎只剩下了峰值的三分之一,这是1981年正式开展期货交易以来跌势最剧烈的一次。

周四后市,ICE期货交易所1月交割的布伦特原油期货跌0.36美元,报每桶53.56美元。

纽约商交所周四因感恩节假期休市。

全球最大的石油出口国、欧佩克的实际领导者沙特阿拉伯发现自己正身处困境。倘若油价跳水,跌破50美元/桶,大多数欧佩克成员国都会面临严峻的经济困难。

但是与此同时,在眼下全球经济遭受多方面危机之际,沙特阿拉伯却甘愿冒险减产并减少库存。

不过,在工业化国家需求持续下挫、投资枯竭的情况下,欧佩克影响市场走向的能力实在是微乎其微。

一些分析师预计,今、明两年全球需求可能出现下滑,多年来从没出现过的大量产能闲置的状况还将进一步加剧。

广告截至目前,欧佩克似乎仍能比较好地遵守9月份作出的减产承诺。

如今,在全世界每天消耗的约8,600万桶原油中,约四成产自欧佩克成员国。但考虑到出口和油价的双双回落,这一比例可能发生变化。

随着财政和社会压力加大,一些欧佩克成员国的经济已近拐点,这可能导致委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔和尼日利亚等国对进一步的减产要求置之不理。

自欧佩克10月底召开紧急会议、决定将日产量下调150万桶以来,油价已跌去将近16%。

然而,在上述会议之后发生了一个根本性的改变,那就是人们预计全球经济疲软会持续更长时间,其复苏也将疲弱无力。

印尼将不参加这次开罗会议。该国已经不再出口石油,并将于年底正式退出欧佩克。
关键字:财经新闻
生词表:
  • petroleum [pi´trəuliəm] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.石油 四级词汇
  • similarly [´similəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.类似地,同样地 四级词汇
  • hapless [´hæpləs] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.不幸的;倒楣的 六级词汇
  • arabia [ə´reibiə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.阿拉伯 四级词汇
  • flatly [´flætli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.平淡地;断然地 六级词汇
  • weekend [´wi:kend, ,wi:k´end] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.周末休假 四级词汇
  • officially [ə´fiʃəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.以职员身份;正式 四级词汇
  • spencer [´spensə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.(羊毛)短上衣 六级词汇