Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.
别再说拥有住房的坏处了。
Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts
running covers that declare 'Owning a home may no longer make economic sense,' it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what 'capitulation' looks like. Everyone has given up.
当然楼市可能还将面临更多痛苦,但当《时代》(Time)杂志开始在封面上宣称"拥有一套住房不再有经济意义"的时候,是时候说:够了,别再说了。这是"投降"的表现,每个人都投降了。
After all, at the peak of the
bubble five years ago, Time had a different take. 'Home Sweet Home,' declared its cover then, as it
celebrated the boom and asked: 'Will your house make you rich?'
别忘了,在五年前楼市泡沫高峰期,《时代》杂志的态度是不一样的,当时封面上写着"家,温暖的家",对楼市繁荣赞颂不已,并问到"你的住宅会使你富裕吗?"
But it's not enough just to be contrarian. So here are 10 reasons why it's good to buy a home.
但仅持反对立场还是不够的。以下是最好买一套住宅的10个理由。
1. You can get a good deal. Especially if you play hardball. This is a buyer's makaykrket. Most of the other buyers have now vanished, as the tax credits on purchases have just expired. We're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. And prices have come down a long way- about 30% from their peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 big cities. Yes, it's mixed. New York is only down 20%. Arizona has halved. Will prices fall further? Sure, they could. You'll never catch the bottom. It doesn't really matter so much in the long haul.
1.交易划算,尤其是假如你持强硬态度。现在是买方市场,多数其他买家目前已离开,因购房的税收抵扣刚刚到期。现代历史中楼市最严重的衰退期已有四五年了,根据标准普尔(Standard & Poor)的Case-Shiller房价指数,房价已下跌许多,较峰值下降约30%。该房价指数追踪20个大城市的房价。这一数据错综复杂,纽约房价仅下降20%,而亚利桑那州房价已减半。房价还会进一步下跌吗?当然会,你永远都抄不到底,但这长期来看并不重要。
Where is fair value? Fund
manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who predicted the bust with
remarkableaccuracy, said two years ago that home prices needed to fall another 17% to reach fair value in relation to household
incomes. Case-Shiller since then: Down 18%.
那么合理价格是多少?GMO基金经理格雷厄姆(Jeremy Grantham)两年前说,相较于家庭收入,房价需要再下降17%,才能到达合理价格,他以非凡的准确性预测了楼市的颓势。Case-Shiller房价指数两年来下跌18%。
2. Mortgages are cheap. You can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. What's not to like? These are the lowest rates on record. As recently as two years ago they were about 6.3%. That drop slashes your
monthly re
payment by a fifth. If inflation picks up, you won't see these
mortgage rates again in your
lifetime. And if we get deflation, and rates fall further, you can refi.
2.抵押贷款利率较低。30年期贷款利率为4.3%左右,这是真的吗?这是历史上最低利率,两年前约为6.3%,这使你月还款额减少五分之一。如果通胀加剧,你不会在有生之年再看到这样低的抵押贷款利率了。但如果出现通缩,利率将进一步下降,那时你可以进行再融资。
3. You'll save on taxes. You can
deduct the
mortgage interest from your
income taxes. You can
deduct your real
estate taxes. And you'll get a tax break on capital gains-if any-when you sell. Sure, you'll need to do your math. You'll only get the
income tax break if you itemize your
deductions, and many people may be better off
taking the standard
deduction instead. The breaks are more
valuable the more you earn, and the bigger your
mortgage. But many people will find that these tax breaks mean owning costs them less, often a lot less, than renting.
3.将节省税款。你可以从所得税中抵扣抵押贷款利息,你可以抵扣地产税。如果要出售房产的话,你的资本收益将得到税收减免。当然,你要自己算一下。如果你列出清单逐项减免,你将会只得到所得税减免,而许多人可能更适合采取标准减免方式。税收减免是你挣钱越多,越合适,而且得到的抵押贷款额度也就越高。但很多人发现减免税收意味着,拥有一套住房比租房让他们花费更少,通常是少很多。
4. It'll be yours. You can have the kitchen and bathrooms you want. You can move the walls, build an extension-zoning permitted-or paint everything bright orange. Few landlords are so indulgent; for renters, these types of changes are often impossible. You'll feel better about your own place if you own it than if you rent. Many years ago, when I was
working for a political
campaign in England, I toured a
working-class northern town. Mrs. Thatcher had just begun selling off public housing to the tenants. 'You can tell the ones that have been bought,' said my local guide. 'They've painted the front door. It's the first thing people do when they buy.' It was a small sign that said something big.
4.房子是你的。你要想厨房和浴室什么样就是什么样。你可以改建,在得到许可的区域里再增加一个房间,或是把一切都涂成桔黄色。几乎没有房东会这样纵容你;对于房客来说,这样的改造通常是不可能的。如果你拥有这套住房,而不是租来的,那么你感觉会更好。很多年前,当我在英国为政治选举工作时,我旅行到北部一个工薪阶层聚集的小镇,当时撒切尔夫人刚刚开始以较低的价格向公共住宅租客出售这些房屋。我的一位当地导游说,你可以说出哪些房子是人们已经购买了的,他们把前门油漆过了,这是他们买房后要做的第一件事。这是具有重大意义的小信号。
5. You'll get a better home. In many parts of the country it can be really hard to find a good rental. All the best places are sold as condos. Money talks. Once again, this is a case by case issue: In Miami right now there are so many
vacantluxury condos that owners will rent them out for a
fraction of the cost of owning. But few places are so favored. Generally
speaking, if you want the best home in the best
neighborhood, you're better off buying.
5. 你会有个更好的家。在美国许多地方,要租到称心如意的房子真的很难。所有那些好位置都被作为共管公寓出售了。毕竟金钱是万能的。不过这也还是要分具体情况:当前迈阿密有许多空着的豪华共管公寓,屋主都愿意出租,租价相比售价来说十分廉宜。不过有这份幸运的地方不多。大体上,如果你想在最好的社区有个不错的家,那还是买房子的好。
6. It offers some inflation protection. No, it's not perfect. But studies by Professor Karl 'Chip' Case (of Case-Shiller), and others, suggest that over the long-term housing has tended to beat inflation by a couple of
percentage points a year. That's
valuable inflation insurance, especially if you're young and raising a family and thinking about the next 30 or 40 years. In the recent past, inflation-protected government bonds, or TIPS, offered an easier form of inflation insurance. But yields there have plummeted of late. That also makes homeownership look a little better by contrast.
6. 购房提供了通胀保护。这并不是绝对的。不过Case-Shiller住房价格指数的创始人之一、教授凯斯(Karl "Chip" Case)和其他人的研究显示,长期来看,房产每年增值的幅度要高过通胀几个百分点。这是颇有价值的通胀保险,尤其是如果你年纪不大、正在供养家庭,并为未来三四十年考虑的话。近年来,通胀保值债券(TIPS)提供了更简易的通胀保障形式。但最近这类债券的收益率暴跌。这样一来购房相比之下也略好一些。
7. It's risk capital. No, your home isn't the stock market and you shouldn't view it as the way to get rich. But if the
economy does surprise us all and start booming, sooner or later real
estate prices will head up again, too. One lesson from the last few years is that stocks are
incredibly hard for most
normal people to own in large quantities-for practical as well as
psychological reasons. Equity in a home is another way of linking part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the
economy-if it happens-and still managing to sleep at night.
7. 它是风险资本。你的房子可不是股市,不能被视为致富之道。但要是经济真的给了我们大家一个惊喜,开始繁荣起来,那房价迟早还是会再度上涨。过去这几年的一个教训是,大多数普通人大量拥有股票难度极高──无论是从实际操作还是从心理层面。拥有房屋产权是将你的部分投资组合与经济的长期增长联系起来的另一种方式──如果经济能实现增长的话──同时你晚上也还能睡得着(不至于像买股票那样提心吊胆)。
8. It's forced savings. If you can rent an
apartment for $2,000 month instead of buying one for $2,400 a month, renting may make sense. But will you save that $400 for your future? A lot of people won't. Most, I dare say. Once again, you have to do your math, but the part of your
mortgagepayment that goes to
principal re
payment isn't a cost. You're just paying yourself by building
equity. As a forced
monthly saving, it's a good discipline.
8. 买房会强迫储蓄。如果你能以每个月2000美元的价格租一套公寓,而不是月供2400美元买一套,租房或许有点意义。但你会省下这400美元以备未来之需吗?很多人都不会。我敢说大多数人都不会。在这里你又必须自己盘算了,不过你的贷款月供中偿还本金的部分不能算是成本。其实你的钱是给自己的,因为你积累了资产。作为一种强制性的每月储蓄,这是种很好的自律。
9. There is a lot to choose from. There is a glut of homes in most of the country. The National Association of Realtors puts the current inventory at around 4 million homes. That's below last year's peak, but well above
typical levels, and enough for about a year's worth of sales. More keeping coming onto the market, too, as the banks slowly unload their inventory of unsold properties. That means great choice, as well as great prices.
9. 选择余地很大。全国大多数地方都有充足的房源。全美地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)估计当前的存量在400万套左右。这个数字低于去年的峰值,但仍远高于通常水平,相当于一整年的销售量。而且随着银行慢慢处理未售出的房产,还有更多的存量房不断进入市场。这种情况意味着选择多多,而且价格实惠。
10. Sooner or later, the market will clear. Demand and supply will meet. The population is
forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes. Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out. Many of the homes will be bought. But many more will simply be destroyed-either
deliberately, or by inaction. This is already
happening. Even two years ago, when I toured the housing slump in
western Florida, I saw
bankrupt condo developments that were fast becoming derelict. And, finally, a lot of the 'glut' simply won't matter: It's concentrated in a few areas, like Florida and Nevada. Unless you live there, the glut won't have any long-term
impact on housing supply in your town.
10. 市场迟早会好转。供需将达到平衡。未来40年人口预计将增长逾1亿。这就意味着或许会有4,000万个新家庭寻找住所。同时,当前的住房供应过量也会自行解决。很多房子会被人买下。还有更多的房子会直接遭遇损毁──无论是有意为之还是维护不善。这种情况已经出现了。就在两年前,楼市低迷时我在佛罗里达西部巡视,看到破产的共管公寓开发项目很快就成了一片荒芜。最后,这种"过量供应"中有很大一部分根本不能算数:这种情况都集中在少数几个地区,如佛罗里达和内华达。除非你就住在这些地方,否则这些过量供应对你所在城市的住房供应根本不会有任何长期影响。