Cotton prices have soared to a 25-year high. At ICE Futures U.S., cotton currently trades at 93.73 cents a pound, up 24% this year and the highest since Oct. 1995. 'Demand continues to grow; it's the supply that's in question,' says Ronald Lawson, managing
director of LOGIC Advisors, a commodities consulting firm.
棉花价格已大涨至25年高点。在ICE美国期货交易所,棉花价格目前为每磅93.73美分,今年已上涨了24%,也是自1995年10月以来的最高水平。大宗商品咨询公司LOGIC Advisors的董事总经理劳森(Ronald Lawson)说,需求不断增加,要考虑的是供应问题。
Global cotton
consumption is estimated to outstrip
output this year, further
drawing down cotton's stocks, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. On the supply side, Pakistan, the world's largest cotton
grower, suffered heavy crop losses due to floods, while, India recently imposed a prohibitive tax on cotton exports to protect
domestictextile manufacturers.
据美国农业部,预计今年的全球棉花消耗量将超过其产量,这将进一步减少棉花库存。从供应面上看,全球最大的棉花种植国巴基斯坦因洪灾遭受了严重减产,而印度最近也针对棉花出口征收了禁止性税赋,以此保护国内的纺织制造商。
Cotton's rally bodes well for the economic
recovery, as it is the longest leading economic indicator of all the commodities. From a bag of cottonseeds to a T-shirt, it takes about 18 months as it goes through planting, ginning,
spinning and weaving. 'No other raw material takes that long and is influenced by that many different things,' Mr. Lawson said.
棉花价格的涨势对经济复苏而言是个积极信号,因为它是所有大宗商品中周期性最长的主要经济指标。从一包棉籽到一件T恤,要经过大概18个月时间,期间经历了种植、轧棉、纺纱和织布等阶段。劳森说,其他没有哪一种原材料如此耗时,并受到如此多因素的影响。