U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said economic conditions remain 'quite difficult' and cautioned that a return to stronger economic growth, likely to come next year, 'could be relatively moderate.'

The central bank's No. 2 official, who collaborates closely with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, also said monetarypolicy is 'appropriately calibrated' to promote rising employment and moderating inflation. That ratified market expectations that the Fed will hold its interest-rate target at 2% through much of this year, after a series of cuts from 5.25% last September. He added, however, that 'a large measure of uncertainty surrounds that judgment' about the current stance, leaving the door open for further cuts if necessary.

In prepared remarks to a conference in New Orleans, Mr. Kohn painted a dour picture of the current economy, facing a sharp contraction in housing activity and house values, soft consumer and business spending, a weak job market and rising prices for food and energy. Though financial markets have improved in recent weeks, he noted that some markets are still under pressure and investors remain worried about credit quality.

But Mr. Kohn also outlined a path toward economic recovery, spurred by lower interest rates and a boost to consumer spending from the economic-stimulus checks now reaching households.

'Although the current financial and economic situation remains quite difficult,' he said, 'I believe that the most likely scenario over the next year or so is one in which economic activity firms during the second half of this year and then gathers some strength in 2009.'

He warned that a deeper-than-expected pullback in house prices could hit lenders and financial markets and 'further damp' economic activity.

'We are in uncharted waters when the financial system becomes so disrupted,' Mr. Kohn said. 'In such circumstances, uncertainty about how credit conditions will evolve and how businesses and households will react to changing terms and conditions means that we can have even less confidence than usual in our economic forecasts.'

Some Fed policy makers around the country have voiced stronger concern in recent weeks about the pace of inflation, particularly due to soaring prices for food, energy and other commodities. A few have even suggested the central bank may need to raise rates by the end of the year to maintain price stability and keep public expectations about inflation in check.

Mr. Kohn, however, described recent inflation news as 'mixed.' Though commodity prices continue to rise, he said he expects them to 'level out' and expected underlying inflation to ease as the slower economy inhibits firms from raising wages and prices. Longer-term inflation expectations 'appear to have edged up,' but he suggested that they haven't yet 'become unmoored.'

美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)副主席唐纳德•科恩(Donald Kohn)表示，经济形势依然"十分严峻"，并警告称经济增长情况可能要到明年才会有所好转，而且将会"相对温和"。

在平常的工作中，Fed二号人物科恩与Fed主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)有着非常密切的合作。科恩还表示，现行货币政策以促进就业和抑制通货膨胀为目标，并进行了适当调整。这一说法认同了市场预期，即经过了始于去年9月（当时的利率水平为5.25%）的一连串减息后，Fed在今年余下的大部分时间里将维持当前2%的利率。但他指出，Fed对当前形势的判断仍存有很大不确定性，从而给必要时进一步减息留下了余地。

在新奥尔良一次会议上，科恩在书面发言中将目前的经济状况描绘成一片黯淡：住房市场大幅收缩、房屋价值急剧缩水、消费者及企业支出疲软、就业市场表现乏力，与此同时食品和能源价格却一路上涨。尽管金融市场最近几周已有所改善，但科恩指出有些市场依然承受压力，投资者对信贷质量的担忧仍未缓解。

不过，科恩还是看到了经济复苏的希望。随着经济刺激政策的影响力逐渐传递至普通家庭，它对消费者支出的提振效力逐渐显现，加上整个经济的低息环境，美国经济将踏上复苏之路。

他谈到，虽然当前的金融和经济形势依然十分严峻，但他相信今年下半年时经济活动很有可能将逐步走稳，到了2009年时将获得增长动能。

科恩也警告，房价的缩水程度可能大于预期，这或许会有损放贷机构和金融市场，从而"进一步拖累"经济活动。

他说，当金融体系变得如此混乱时，我们毫无应对经验；面对这样的情况，信贷环境将如何演变、企业和家庭将如何应对不断变化的环境，这种种不确定性意味着我们在预测经济前景时，自信心将大大不及以往。

近几周来，一些Fed官员对通胀的顾虑日渐增加，尤其是食品、能源及其他大宗商品价格的一路攀升。甚至有少数官员建议Fed在年内加息以稳定物价，同时也抑制民众对通胀的预期。

然而科恩认为最近有关通胀的消息可以说是"喜忧参半"。尽管大宗商品价格不断上涨，但他预计它们将逐步"趋平"，而且由于经济放缓制约了企业给员工加薪以及提高产品售价，潜在通胀将得到缓解。科恩表示，虽然长期通货膨胀预期"看起来有所上升"，但目前为止尚未失控。
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