The big story of 2012 has been the refusal of the euro zone to collapse, much to the frustration of those who bet heavily or staked their professional credibility on its demise.
欧元区免于解体可谓是2012年的一件大事。而对那些大举押注欧元区解体、甚至不惜赌上自己职业信誉的人来说，这无疑令他们感到格外失望。
It's amazing when one thinks back one year just how widely held was this belief in imminent eurogeddon. Many senior bankers, particularly in London and Frankfurt, privately believed Greece would be out of the euro in 2012; the chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland even said so publicly.
就在一年前，有关欧元区即将解体的看法还获得了普遍的支持，现在回过头去看未免会觉得不可思议。许多资深银行家，特别是那些在伦敦和法兰克福的银行家私下里都认为希腊将会在2012年退出欧元区。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的董事长甚至公开表达了这一观点。
At the Bank of England, some officials were convinced the euro would break up last Christmas and the BOE continued to assume a euro collapse for most of this year. Bearish economists such as Nouriel Roubini and Citigroup's Willem Buiter, who coined the term Grexit for a Greek euro exit, were feted like celebrities. Anyone who stood against this tide of conventionalwisdom was assumed to be a starry-eyed europhile.
英国央行(Bank of England)的一些官员曾确信欧元区会在去年圣诞节解体，而英国央行今年大部分时间也都继续持欧元区会解体的观点。鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)和花旗集团(Citigroup)的布伊特(Willem Buiter)等看空欧元区的经济学家曾为希腊退出欧元区创造了"希腊退欧"(Grexit)一词，他们获得了明星般的追捧。任何不认同这一普遍看法的人都被认为是过分乐观的"恋欧癖"者。
These euro bears have since had to perform what journalists call a reverse ferret. Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds are back to their lowest levels since mid-2011, Ireland looks on track to regain full market access next year, Greece has received substantial debt relief and foreign investors are starting to dip their toes back into peripheral euro zone bond markets.
此后，这些看空欧元的人不得不突然转变立场。西班牙和意大利国债收益率目前已重回2011年年中以来的最低水平，爱尔兰明年有望重新全面利用债市进行融资，希腊获得了大规模债务减免，外国投资者开始重新小心翼翼地进入欧元区外围国家的债市。
It's hard now to find a seniorbanker or official who thinks the euro zone will break up next year. The Bank of England's latest Financial Stability Review still sees risks but these are now in the medium term. True, Citigroup still expects Greece to eventually leave the euro zone, but it has reduced the probability to 60% and pushed out its forecast time until mid-2014, which was probably as far as it could go to reverse its extreme position without looking ridiculous.
现在认为欧元区明年将解体的高级银行家或官员寥寥无几。虽然英国央行最新一期《金融稳定评估报告》(Financial Stability Review)认为欧元区解体的风险依然存在，但它目前认为这只是中期风险。不错，花旗仍预计希腊最终将退出欧元区，但它已经将这种可能性降低到60%，并将自己预测的希腊退出欧元区时间推迟至2014年年中，花旗此举或许既能让它得以扭转以往的极端立场，又不显得荒唐可笑。
Of course, the euro crisis isn't over. Just because the bears got it wrong in 2012 doesn't mean they won't be right eventually. Some warn the current market calm is dangerous because it might lead to renewed complacency.
毫无疑问，欧元区危机尚未结束。看空者2012年错了，但并不能仅凭这一点就说他们最终将是错的。一些人警告说，目前的市场平静局面是危险的，因为这可能导致自满情绪死灰复燃。
This is a valid concern. But in trying to assess where the risks lie, it is important to understand why the bears have been wrong so far. After all, the euro zone actually performed worse in 2012 than even the gloomiest forecaster predicted, and the Greek economy collapsed more completely than anyone believed possible.
这种担忧不无道理。但在试图评估风险所在时，有必要弄明白看空者目前为止为何都是错的。毕竟，2012年欧元区的情况实际上比最悲观的预测者所预计的还要糟，希腊经济的崩溃程度也比任何人料想的都更严重。
Yet the bears underestimated the near-impossibility of unraveling the single currency, the determination of the European Central Bank to avoid catastrophe
京公网安备 11011202003401号
