美元的持续下跌,让人民币对美元的汇率突破了7∶1关口,正式进入"6时代"。中国外汇交易中心公布,昨天,银行间外汇市场美元等交易货币对人民币汇率的中间价为1美元对人民币6.9920元,创汇改以来新高。
The central parity rate of the yuan yesterday breached the
psychological mark of 7 against the US dollar, exacerbating the woes of exporters and manufacturers.
The central bank set the rate at 6.992 yuan to the greenback, the first time the
currency has broken through 7 since the yuan's peg to the US
currency was scrapped in July, 2005.
"It will have some
psychologicalimpact, but won't be a big shock," said Dong Yuping,
senioreconomist with the Institute of Finance and Banking affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). "It has been widely expected given the recent pick-up in the pace of
appreciation."
The yuan has risen about 4.3 percent against the dollar so far this year on the back of a 6.9 percent rise last year. It has risen by about 18 percent since July 2005.
The yuan, however, has not appreciated much against the trade weighted
currency basket, although it is trading stronger than those currencies.
Apart from the sliding dollar, UBS Investment Research said in a report that factors contributing to the recent acceleration in yuan's
appreciation include decreasing "hot money" inflows since last October, which eased pressure on policymakers and enabled them to allow the yuan to appreciate faster.
Dong said it is also possible that policymakers have allowed faster
appreciation to ease inflation, which jumped 7.1 and 8.7 percent
respectively in January and February.
Another factor is China's strong export performance - shipments have grown at about 20 percent year on year in real terms, which has eased officials' concerns about the
impact of
currencyappreciation, the UBS said.
The yuan
appreciation, however, would slow, said Dong.
"I think the dollar may stabilize and gradually rebound by the end of next year," he said, adding that the yuan may gradually rise to about 6 to the dollar and stabilize in the next two years.
UBS said the
potential comeback of
speculative capital inflows would keep the authorities from allowing the yuan
appreciation to be too fast.
Moreover, China's trade
surplus has been flat or falling for 18 months and this trend will continue through next year, which means the
underlying pressure on the
currency is moderating, the UBS report said.
The yuan's
relentless rise has been pinching many exporters, who have had to raise prices,
shorten contract periods or shift to domestic sales.
"Many of our clients have complained about our frequent price adjustments and we dare not sign long-term deals for fear of
unexpected losses due to the yuan's further
appreciation," said Liao Yu, a
senior manager of Guangdong-based Chigo Air Conditioner Co Ltd.
For Ningbo-based Yunhuan Electronics Group Co Ltd, the
currencyappreciation has left the company with no
alternative but to raise its prices by 2.5 percent - and purchasers have since cut down on orders. "Only some long-term customers have agreed to share
currency-incurred losses with us," Shen Xiangjun, the company's sales manager, said.
Fearing weakening
external demand, many companies have shifted to China's domestic market.
Vocabulary:
greenback:美钞
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