China remains one of a few
decent options for investment managers in New York, London and other financial centers, thanks to its
relatively secluded financial system and its ambitious economic
stimulus program.
Half the fund managers surveyed in a recent Merrill Lynch report said they intend to "overweight" Chinese equities even though 80 percent of respondents predicted China's economic growth will slow further in 2009.
"China remains the most favored
destination for foreign investors," said Zhu Yipu, an analyst at China Venture, a venture capital and private equities investment research institute. examda.com
China is not exactly an investor's dream at the moment. The stock and property markets took a savage
beating in the past 12 months. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 70 percent to 1850. Property prices in major cities dropped an average 25 percent. In Shenzhen, real estate prices nosedived an average 40 percent from the beginning of 2008.
But despite horrific erosion of asset values, the country's financial system is shielded by restrictions on
currency convertibility and foreign
participation and is faring well compared to others around the globe.
The combined
exposure of Chinese banks to toxic securities, which brought down some of the most
venerable financial institutions in other markets, was
insignificant relative to their total assets.
The downturn in loan demand from many corporations combined with a narrowing interest rate spread will eat into many banks' profits in the next few years. But loan defaults by corporate and individual borrowers remain manageable.
Many foreign fund managers are not in a position, or mood, to acquire new assets. Foreign acquisitions in Shanghai's real estate market dropped 26 percent year-on-year to 16
billion yuan in 2008, according to the latest figures from Jones Lang LaSalle, a global real estate service firm.
But a
massive fire sale of fast-depreciating assets by jittery investors has not happened in China.
Instead foreign investors are waiting on the sideline, keeping a keen eye on available bargains. Fund managers and analysts say many foreign investors are beginning to revisit investment opportunities in China since the decline in asset values presents high return possibilities in a perceivably lower risk
environment.
"Investors of venture capital and private equities are
taking a more
cautious approach, waiting for capital values to come down," said Zhu of China Venture, "But their longer term investment
strategy in China will not change."
The government's economic
stimulus package which includes measures to further open the Chinese investment markets helps boost foreign investors' confidence. examda.com
Several measures from the government in recent months will likely bolster their confidence even more.
The central government tripled the quota for qualified foreign institutional investors from $10
billion to $30
billion.
"Although foreign acquisitions in Shanghai slowed to a halt in the fourth quarter of 2008, a pick-up next year is expected," said Steven McCord,
senior manager of the research department at Jones Lang LaSalle, China.
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