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奢侈品泡沫即将破裂

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'The luxurybubble is about to burst,' is a statement wary investors and analysts have been making since the financialcrisis erupted in 2008, only to be proved wrong.


奢侈品泡沫即将破裂"。这是自2008年爆发金融危机以来，谨慎的投资者和分析师们常说的一句话。但事实总是证明他们错了。



Now, they might have a point.


而这一次，他们可能说对了。



Luxury retailers have been relatively immune to the world-wide economic downturn in recent years, with sales driven by gains in emerging markets and tourists in Europe.


奢侈品零售商近年来一直没怎么受到全球范围内经济衰退的影响，奢侈品销售受到来自新兴市场的收益增长以及欧洲游客的提振。



Asia, and in particular China, has been the greatest engine for growth as the wealthysplash out on luxury goods. China has 2.7 million high-net-worth individuals with assets of more than six million yuan, or just under $1 million, and 63,500 people worth more than 100 million yuan, according to the Shanghai-based wealthresearch firm Hurun Report.


由于有钱人大肆购买奢侈品，亚洲尤其是中国一直是奢侈品增长的最大引擎。据上海财富研究机构胡润百富（Hurun Report）统计，在中国。资产超过人民币600万元（近100万美元）的高净值个人有270万，资产超过人民币1亿元的有6.35万人。



But evidence is starting to mount that the Asia-driven luxury engine could be starting to splutter.


但越来越多的证据表明，驱动奢侈品行业增长的亚洲引擎可能开始不那么给力了。



'If you look at all the data, especially out of China, everything is decelerating,' said Stacey Widlitz, president of U.S.-based consultancy firm SW Retail Advisors. 'The comparisons [on a year earlier] are difficult, the trajectory is concerning. The question is now, does it get worse?'


美国咨询公司SW Retail Advisors的总裁韦德里茨（Stacey Widlitz）说，如果看看那些数据，特别是中国以外地区的数据，我们就会发现各类奢侈品的销售增速都在减慢；同比增幅下降显著，变化轨迹令人担忧；现在的问题是，情况会不会变得更糟？



Burberry PLC, one of the major players in the luxury sector, showed signs last week that it is beginning to feel the effects of the weakening global economy, as total sales growth slowed to 11% in the first quarter from 34% in the year-ago period at constant currencies. The most striking slowdown was in its Asian-Pacific region.


上周，英国奢侈品巨头博柏利（Burberry PLC）显示出它开始感受到全球经济放缓影响的迹象。按不变汇率计算，其第一季度的整体销售增幅从上年同期的34%降到了11%。下降最厉害的是亚太地区。



The figures sent Burberry's shares down more than 7% and sparked concerns that the U.K. company's peers -- including France's LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA and Italian fashion house Prada SpA -- could also be caught in the cross-hairs as they report quarterly results in the coming weeks.


这些数据导致博柏利股价下跌了7%以上，并导致市场担心：法国路威酩轩集团(LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA，简称LVMH )和意大利时装品牌普拉达（Prada SpA）等奢侈品巨头在未来几周公布的季度业绩报告，是否会显示它们也陷入了与博柏利一样的窘境。



'The broader Asian picture is troubling,' said Rahul Sharma, managing director of retail analysts Neev Capital, who said Burberry fell short of analyst expectations for first-quarter revenue.


咨询公司Neev Capital的零售分析董事总经理夏尔马（Rahul Sharma）说，亚洲整体的情况令人担忧。他说博柏利第一季度的收入低于分析师预期。



In the last 12 months, Burberry's shares have dropped nearly 22%. In the same period, LVMH shares have fallen 12% and fellow French luxury firm Hermes International SCA is nearly 7% lower.


过去12个月，博柏利股价跌了近22%。LVMH股价下跌了12%，法国奢侈品公司爱马仕（Hermes International SCA）的股价下滑近7%。



Of the major European luxury brands, only Prada has shown a modest increase -- up around 3% -- over the year. Although most analysts still see value in Burberry and retain 'buy' ratings, many have cut profit forecasts over concerns of a Chinese slowdown. This despite companies posting double-digit growth in the region.


在主要的欧洲奢侈品品牌中，只有普拉达的股价略有增长，同比增长约2%。尽管大多数分析师仍然看好博柏利的价值并继续维持对其股票的"买入"评级，但很多人由于担心博柏利在中国的销量会下滑而下调了对该公司的利润预测。尽管许多奢侈品公司都宣布在中国取得了两位数的增长，但这也无济于事。



Burberry's first-quarter figures showed growth of 18% in the Asian-Pacific region, down from 67% on year. Within that, sales growth in China slowed to the 'mid-teens' from 30%, according to Stacey Cartwright, the firm's finance director.


博柏利第一季度的数据显示其亚太地区业务的增长为18%，低于上年同期67%的增幅。博柏利财务总监卡特莱特（Stacey Cartwright）说，公司在中国的销售增幅从30%下滑到了15%左右。



Goldman Sachs removed Burberry from its 'conviction buy' list, its checklist of strongly outperforming stocks, and analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the company was unlikely to meet its target of 15% earnings per share growth in 2012-13.


高盛（Goldman Sachs）已将博柏利的股票移出"确信买入"名单，入选这份名单的都是以明显优势跑赢大盘的股票。美国银行-美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的分析师说，博柏利不大可能实现在2012至2013年度每股盈利增长15%的目标。



Bethany Hocking, an analyst at Investec Securities, conceded that Burberry had 'a number of self-help levers to pull' in China, including its vast store network, but downgraded her profit forecasts for fiscal 2013 and 2014 by 2% and 3%, respectively.


证券公司Investec Securities的分析师霍金（Bethany Hocking）承认，博柏利在中国有很多可利用的优势，包括其分布广泛的门店网络，但她还是将博柏利2013和2014财年的利润预测分别下调了2%和3%。



China's second-quarter gross domestic product growth slowed to 7.6% from a year ago, down from 8.1% growth in the first quarter.


中国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）的同比增幅滑落至7.6%，低于第一季度8.1%的增幅。



Ms. Widlitz said the Chinese slowdown would filter through to the balance sheets of all global luxury brands. 'You have to put the pieces of the puzzle together and say that the luxury sector is running out of answers.' She said China could no longer be relied upon to provide strong growth.


韦德里茨说，中国经济减速会渗透到全球各奢侈品牌的资产负债表上。她说，你得把谜题的各个部分都放在一起才能说奢侈品领域快无计可施了。韦德里茨说，奢侈品行业无法再依赖中国获得强劲的增长。



She also said high-growth areas such as Brazil and India wouldn't be enough to compensate for shortfalls in China, the U.S. and Europe: 'Companies are starting to ask: Where do we point to for growth? Who's going to save us now?'


她还说，巴西和印度等高增长地区不足以弥补中国、美国和欧洲留下的需求缺口："各大公司都开始问：我们应该在哪里寻求增长？现在谁会拯救我们？"



With LVMH and fashion and accessories brand Hermes set to report results in the next two weeks, it will soon become clear whether Burberry's cooling growth is the beginning of a fashion statement.


LVMH和时装配饰品牌爱马仕将于未来两周公布业绩报告，不久我们就会知道博柏利的增长降温会不会标志着奢侈品行业糟糕业绩的开始。



Peter Evans


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